Complete 2014-15 Atlanta Braves Offseason Preview
MLB’s regular season ended Sept. 29. How did the Atlanta Braves fare?
Well, let’s just say the second half of the Braves’ season didn’t match the success of the first half.
At the MLB All-Star break, Atlanta was staying competitive with the Washington Nationals as both teams battled it out for the top spot in the NL East. Atlanta had a 52-43 record and were in a virtual tie with the Nats with an almost-similar 51-42 record.
That’s when each team’s season took a different path. Washington posted the NL’s best second-half record of 45-24, while the Braves’ results were an inverted 27-40. That led to Atlanta’s second collapse in the past four years, and the team firing their general manager.
On the first official day of the Braves’ offseason, let’s take a look at five important questions they will face in the coming months:
- What is the Braves' current payroll?
- Which current Braves players are entering free agency?
- What holes will the team need to fill?
- Who is a potential free-agent target for the Braves?
- Are there any possible trades the Braves may pursue?
To answer those five question, begin the slideshow for the complete 2014-15 Atlanta Braves offseason preview and predictions.
What Is the Braves' Current Payroll?
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At the beginning of the 2014 season, the Braves had the 13th-highest payroll, according to Baseball-Reference.com.
Now, as they enter the offseason, here is a breakdown of the Braves’ future payroll obligations (also, according to Baseball-Reference.com):
| 2014 Payroll | $103,500,250 |
| 2015 Payroll Obligations (guaranteed contracts) | $77,500,000 |
| 2015 Estimated Payroll (includes arbitration estimates) | $106,200,000 |
The difference in the second 2015 payroll number includes raises for arbitration-eligible players such as Mike Minor and relievers Jordan Walden, David Carpenter and James Russell. However, it may also include estimated increases for players who likely won’t be returning, such as Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy and Jonny Venters.
We will all be watching this offseason to see if the Braves increase payroll in anticipation of their new stadium—and the additional revenue it is expected to generate, opening in 2017.
Which Current Braves Players Are Entering Free Agency?
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The biggest pending free-agent concern for the Braves will be starting pitcher Ervin Santana (pictured above). When Atlanta signed Santana in spring training, they forfeited their 2014 first-round draft pick.
One of the first player-personnel decisions they’ll need to make this offseason is whether to offer Santana a long-term contract, to offer him a one-year qualifying offer or to decline to offer him a contract at all.
Santana had as good a year for the Braves as he did the year before with the Kansas City Royals. According to FanGraphs.com, Santana’s WAR in 2013 was 2.9, and it was 2.8 in 2014. He also recorded his highest K/9 rate (8.2) since 2008, up from the 6.9 K/9 rate he posted in 2013.
With those numbers, the Braves should be confident in at least extending Santana a qualifying offer and regaining that draft pick they lost this year. If he opts to take the one-year contract, then Atlanta should welcome him back and expect another year of mid-rotation production.
Starter Aaron Harang is another interesting case. With his stellar and unexpected 2014 performance at age 36, should the Braves reach into their pockets to keep him in Atlanta? He likely won’t be worth a qualifying offer, but will the Braves be willing to give him as much as another team?
Several other role players will enter free agency this offseason. Catcher Gerald Laird, outfielder Emilio Bonifacio, pitcher Gavin Floyd and pinch-hitter Ryan Doumit may all have played their last game in a Braves uniform.
What Holes Will the Team Need to Fill?
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Depending on whether or not the Braves decide to bring back starting pitchers Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang, the team may have a couple of big holes to fill in the rotation.
If 2014’s spring training was any guide, the Braves should once again pay attention to the old adage that you can never have enough pitching.
The team should not count on any help next season from the farm to fill out the rotation. The organization’s starting pitching prospects are at least another year away. This means Atlanta will need to be active in the free-agent and trade markets in order to add a starter or two.
They could pencil in David Hale (pictured above) for a starting role. He began this season in the rotation, posting a 2.31 ERA in four April starts. Of course, Hale also made two successful spot starts throughout the season and could be more valuable to Atlanta as a swingman between the rotation and the bullpen.
Every other position on the 2015 Braves has someone penciled in, but that doesn’t mean they’ll stay penciled in. Part of the big front-office shakeup this past week, in which general manager Frank Wren and his assistant Bruce Manno were fired, signaled the organization’s desire to change some members of the everyday lineup.
Guys like B.J. Upton and Chris Johnson, and their sub-1.0 fWARs, will be prime candidates the new GM will look to pawn off onto other teams this offseason.
Who Is a Potential Free-Agent Target for the Braves?
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In order to fill what is expected to be two starting pitching vacancies, the Braves could make a run at several free agents.
While it’s doubtful the team has the resources to sign Max Scherzer or Jon Lester, they could go after the second tier of free-agent starting pitchers.
Jake Peavy has long been a target of the Braves organization. They tried to acquire him from the San Diego Padres during the 2008-09 offseason.
Atlanta could sign another Royals free agent, as James Shields might interest them.
Beyond starting pitchers, the Braves’ free-agent interests will likely be confined to bench and role players. Atlanta’s bench was the worst in the National League this season, so if the team expects to be competitive next year, they will need to spend some money for proven pinch-hitters.
Guys like Chris Denorfia or Nate Schierholtz, who have had success as pinch-hitters in their careers, could be targeted by Atlanta to deepen their bench.
Are There Any Possible Trades the Braves May Pursue?
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Oh yes, there will be trades.
We still don’t know what direction the new general manager will take this team. The two most logical options seem to be either a couple of key personnel moves or a major overhaul of the roster. Either direction will mean trades.
Obviously the team would like to rid themselves of B.J. Upton (pictured above) and his burdensome contract. They will have their work cut out for them finding a team to take him, but they could make his inclusion a requirement for acquiring one of their other players.
With Justin Upton and Jason Heyward entering the final year of their contracts, they could be dangled on the trade market. Starting pitcher Mike Minor could be shopped, as he gets more expensive through arbitration.
It’s no longer a question of if, but when the Braves will trade catcher Evan Gattis. Earlier this month MLB.com Braves beat writer Mark Bowman wrote that he gets the impression that the organization views Christian Bethancourt as the catcher of the future. But will that future begin next year?
While watching Bethancourt during his September call-up, he clearly has more work to do in the batter’s box and behind the plate. While he did a better job of stopping the running game, he allowed more passed balls (6) than Gattis (5), playing over 500 fewer innings. This could lead the Braves to let Bethancourt develop in the minors for another year before handing him the starting job.
Third baseman Chris Johnson could be another player that the team will seek to trade away, as his on-field temper tantrums have rubbed many in the organization the wrong way.
Expect this offseason to be a busy one for the Braves, with just about every member of the team appearing in a trade rumor.
Stats for this article are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com.
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