(Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
In our first article in this series, we explored the first "quarter" of the upcoming football season. The concept, as explained there, is that John Fox likes to look at the season in terms of quarters, with a goal of going 3-1 or 4-0 in each one.
This series takes that concept and runs with it, looking at each group of four games from a July perspective. Sure it's a long-range, somewhat homer-istic speculation, but what else are you going to do in July?
Should you take any of this to Vegas and run with it? Well, if you believe everyone will stay healthy and no one will disappoint. This is all guesswork, and should be taken as such.
In the first four games, the Panthers project to a 2-2 record. There's a decent shot at 3-1 or 1-3, but it's more likely to see them break even.
This column is the second in this series, so today we're going to cover the games five through eight.
Games Five through Eight
The second quarter of the 2009 season is a lot nicer to the Panthers than the first was. The Panthers' combined record against this group is 33-25, and 17-9 in the venues in which these games take place.
The bad news is that John Fox is just 15-14 in October, and 13-14 in November (by far his worst month). Traditionally, this is not the time of year that the Panthers play their best football.
That's not to say all is lost, the Panthers October and November records are marred by a few winless streaks brought on by injuries. If Carolina stays healthy, or develops depth to cover injuries, then they'll be in pretty good shape.
In 2008 they went 6-2 during this time, and given the opponents this quarter, that's a good sign.
Hopefully, at this point of the season the Panthers will be established as one of the better running teams in the league, and their defense will be working well under Meeks' system.
You can expect rookie Everett Brown and Julius Peppers to be putting up good numbers by now, and if the interior of the line stays healthy the Panther defense may be starting to get a little respect.
The numbers may not reflect that, given the offensive machines the Panthers played in the first quarter of the season, but signs will be there that the Panthers don't lay down for anyone.
That's going to be critical during this slate of games. Let's take a look.
Week Six, at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2008 Record: 9-7
2008 Offensive Rank: 14th (11th in Passing, 15th in Rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: ninth (fourth in Passing, 19th against the run)
Tampa Bay looked like a contender to win the division at this time in 2008. They were only 3-2, but in this same week last year they put a 27-3 shellacking on the Panthers in Raymond James stadium that carried them to a 9-3 record before their late season collapse. Times have changed.
The Bucs have opted for a total rebuild in 2009, entering the season without such storied names as Derrick Brooks, Jeff Garcia, Warrick Dunn, Kevin Carter, Phillip Buchanon, Joey Galloway, Cato June, Jovan Haye, Ike Hillard, and of course, John Gruden.
They did add an excellent tight end in Kellin Winslow, a pretty good running back in Derrick Ward, and a possible quarterback of the future in rookie Josh Freeman.
But they start the year with games at the Bills, Redskins, and Eagles, and play two decent road teams in Dallas and the New York Giants. It's a distinct possibility that they're 0-5 when the Panthers come to town.
If that's the case, watch out for a trap here.
The Panthers seemingly have the Bucs' number when Jake Delhomme is the QB, going 8-2 against them with only one loss at Raymond James stadium. Unfortunately, that loss came last year, so the spell may have been broken.
In recent years Tampa Bay has had a young and aggressive defense that has consistently ranked among the tops in the league. Long time defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin has left for Tennessee though, and they return only six starters from the 2008 unit.
On the line, chronic disappointment Gaines Adams will be joined by Chris Hovan, Ryan Sims, and a player to be named later.
Behind them there's a giant hole where Derrick Brooks used to be. The Linebackers have talent, but will miss Brooks' leadership.
The secondary is once again the strength of the defense. Ronde Barber returns, and although he's old he can still be effective and brings a veteran presence to the field. Aquib Talib is a great cornerback, and Tanard Jackson is a hard hitting free safety.
They may move strong safety Jermaine Phillips to linebacker, but even if they do third year man Sabby Piscatelli is more than capable of filling his shoes.
So while there are unknowns on the defense, there's still some good talent. But whether that talent can play at a high level in a new system is a different question entirely.
On offense, expect to see Josh Freeman by this point. If the Bucs are 0-5 or 1-4, the season will be viewed as a rebuilding year anyway, and it will be time to see what the future franchise quarterback can do.
He'll be passing the ball to Winslow and receivers Antonio Bryant and Michael Clayton. There are questions about his accuracy, but you can expect the offensive coordinator to make things easy on the rookie, and give him a lot of throws underneath until his mechanics can be improved.
What will make his life a lot easier is the running game. Even before adding Ward, Tampa Bay already had two talented backs in Cadillac Williams and Earnest Graham.
Their problems back there have been Williams' knees, and if he can stay healthy the addition of Ward will make their offense a lot better than most people expect.
The offensive line is young and talented, and should make Freeman look good and the running game go. What's worse for Panther fans, the oldest starter is center Jeff Faine, and he's just 28.
If the line stays healthy and Tampa Bay gets good play out of the quarterback position, the offense could surprise a lot of people. But for now, expectations are low.
After all, the Bucs are missing a ton of starters, they're young, have a new coach, a good free agent running back, and will probably start a rookie under center. How can they be expected to win? Only an Atlanta fan can know for sure...
So don't be hasty about writing them off. This is a division game, and the Panthers are the team that started the Bucs' big slide in 2008. There's a big revenge factor here, and if the Bucs are already having a bad year this game is going to be their own personal Super Bowl.
This is a winnable game, and the Panthers will probably be favored, but they better bring their best efforts or they'll be in for a nasty surprise.
Carolina leads this series 10-7
Week Seven, the Buffalo Bills
2008 Record: 7-9
2008 Offensive Rank: 25th (22nd in passing, 14th in rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: 14th (13th in Passing, 22nd against the run)
Buffalo started the 2008 season on fire, going 5-1, but it got ugly after that as they went 2-8 the rest of the way en route to a 7-9 finish. The Bills became the fifth team in the last 31 years to start 5-1 and not make the playoffs.
Drastic measures have been taken, as the Bills went out and signed Terrell Owens in the offseason. TO is usually good for one productive season before he starts to destroy team chemistry, and since this is probably Dick Jauron's last year if Buffalo doesn't win, it's probably a risk worth taking.
If Owens behaves and the line questions work themselves out, this could be one of the more improved offenses in the league this year. In addition to Owens, the Bills signed running back Dominick Rhodes, and drafted a pass catching tight end in Shawn Nelson.
Put those newcomers together with Trent Edwards, Lee Evans, and Marshawn Lynch and you have a multidimensional attack that has fans in Buffalo excited this year.
A lot of that depends on line play though. The Bills let Jason Peter go in Free Agency, and are hoping that Langston Walker can make a smooth transition to left tackle like Jordan Gross did for the Panthers in 2008.
They also have a talented newcomer at center in former Panther Geoff Hangartner, and brought in some good depth via the draft.
Basically, if the line comes together like it has potential to, and if T.O. keeps his mouth shut and plays ball, then the Bills offense should have some real teeth.
On the other side of the ball, there are still a lot of question marks. Last year the Bills were 28th in total sacks, and they need to find a way to get pressure on the quarterback or it will be another long year.
To address that, they drafted Aaron Maybin to line up across from a hopefully healthy Aarom Schobel, who missed 11 games in 2008. Their interior of the line is set, but after that they have big issues.
At linebacker, they're set at the weak side with Kawika Mitchell, but Paul Posluszny has been a disappointment in the middle and the strong side still isn't set.
Their secondary, however, is solid on the edges with cornerbacks Leodis McKelvin and veteran Terrence McGee, and they have a very good strong safety and leader in Donte Whitner.
Whitner teamed with Ko Simpson as the NFL' first ever rookie safety tandem in 2006, but Simpson has since lost his starting job and they're still not set at the Free Safety position.
The Bills open the season at New England (and Tom Brady will be back), then they get a potential breather in Tampa Bay before playing the Saints. Then it's off to the Dolphins, home against the Browns (who swept them in 2008), and on the road at the Jets before they roll into Charlotte.
After looking at that slate of games though, "roll into Charlotte" may be the wrong expression. The Bills will probably be limping into town with a hint of desperation in their play.
Don't expect them to shut down the run, and if a visiting team can't shut down the run they could be in for a long day. Unless the Bills' offense is excellent, this looks like a probable win.
The Bills have a lifetime record of 3-1 versus the Panthers
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