Predicting the 2015 Formula One driver market is a little bit like trying to predict the route of a vehicle on a journey to an unknown destination.
There are so many variables at play that even a single wrong guess can render the rest of the predictions incorrect.
We came up with very similar predictions and failed in an equally spectacular manner. The two sets of predictions scored an identical two (Red Bull and Mercedes) out of 11 correct.
But the market for 2014 was unusually active and volatile, so unless it was the start of a trend, things should be quieter this year.
Looking at everything from subtle hints to form, and adding in a little bit of gut feeling, here are six connected driver moves which could well occur for 2015.