The Buffalo Bills have lost 24 of their last 26 games versus the New England and roll into Foxborough on runs of 1-7 against the spread as a road underdog and 7-2 ATS in AFC East play.
The OVER has cashed in five of the last six times they've met at New England, but the Patriots have stayed low in six of their past seven divisional games.
More interesting is a major OVER angle involving both teams in season finales.
Bills-Patriots point spread: Patriots opened as 8.5-point favorites but were bet to -10.5 by Tuesday; the total was 47. (Line updates and matchup report)
Odds Shark computer prediction: 27.3-19.4 Patriots
Why the Bills can cover the spread
Buffalo looked good on defense last week in a 19-0 shutout of the Miami Dolphins, using a blitzing scheme to dominate a Fins offensive line that has allowed a single-season worst 58 sacks.
The Bills have three players with at least 10 sacks and lest we forget these two played a close one in the regular-season opener, lost to the Patriots 23-21. Since losing five of six, the Bills have won two straight and will be playing with a little confidence.
Why the Patriots can cover the spread
Last week's 41-7 victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens should be enough motivation for this team, but knowing coach Bill Belichick, he'll be pushing for his team to score another huge win before the postseason.
The Pats won the AFC East for a fifth straight year, and solidifying home field for at least one game is next on the agenda. Winning by double digits should be attainable.
After scoring a win in their home finale last week, the Bills aren't going to be concerned with winning this game. There is nothing more to play for, they're banged up and the Patriots are overall the better team and have much more motivation going into the final week.
With the situation at hand, it's always worth a shot with Belichick and Tom Brady. Lay the points here, as New England will be looking to head into the postseason on a 5-1 SU run.
And watch the OVER trend here, as the Patriots are 10-1 favoring the OVER in 11 season finales while the Bills are 15-2 favoring the same wager.
- Bills are 2-24 SU past 26 games vs Patriots
- OVER is 5-1 past six meetings at Foxboro
- Bills are 1-7 ATS past eight games as road underdog
- Bills are 7-2 ATS past nine divisional games
- UNDER is 6-1 past seven Patriots divisional games
- OVER is 15-2 past 17 season-ending games
- Patriots 12-2 ATS past 14 regular season finales
- Patriots OVER is 10-1 past 11 Week 17 games