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How Warriors can win
Defensive lineups. Memphis is lacking two essential aspects of a successful playoff team: A go-to scorer and ball movement.
Memphis has everything else: size, rebounding, disgusting perimeter defense and experience. Even offensive specialists like Jarrett Jack, Stephen Curry, David Lee and Carl Landry will be neutralized by Memphis, so the Warriors will be far better off focusing on stopping Memphis' offense.
Guys like Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli and even Andris Biedrins and Kent Bazemore can cause the disruption necessary to stymie the Grizzlies offense.
If Jackson plays these guys with Lee and Curry—the two best one-on-one scorers on either side—Golden State will have the edge.
How Grizzlies can win
Playoff experience. The fact is that the Warriors may have a personnel edge in this series. They are stronger than Memphis at every starting position besides center and possess a near monopoly on guys who can steal a game.
However, Stephen Curry and David Lee have no playoff experience, while Jarrett Jack has very little. The Grizzlies will make it extremely difficult on these three, wearing them down as the series goes on by hounding them defensively, attacking them on offense and playing physical throughout.
Lionel Hollins and his veteran team will focus in on the Warriors key players. If they successfully neutralize them, there's no way that Golden State's supporting cast and bench can keep up with Memphis'.
Warriors in seven. The Grizzlies will go up 2-0 on the inexperienced Warriors, but Jackson, Curry and Lee will make adjustments game-by-game.
Memphis will do everything they can to counter, but once Stephen Curry figures out a way to get looks, he'll take over the series as the Grizzlies will not have an offensive counter-punch.