Projecting the Field of 65: Feb. 18

With Selection Sunday now just 25 days away, I present to you my most in depth projections yet; including a pecking order among my first 16 teams out.

Don't forget to check out the Schwach Indicator to see how this new evaluation tool is affecting my projections.

Remember, I am not trying to guess how teams will end up come Selection Sunday. I am simply seeding them based on their current résumé. To that end, teams currently leading their conference receive automatic bids, and everyone else is judged on their at-large profile.

As always, I like to break teams down into three categories. "Wallflowers" are bubble teams. Everyone wants to get into the Big Dance, but not all have the guts to ask a girl out onto the dance floor. Elite teams are safely in the field, "Dancing with a hottie," and in the middle are the schools that are "Dancing with their Sister."

ACC

Dancing with a hottie: No. Carolina (1 seed), Duke (3), Wake Forest (4), Clemson (4)

Dancing with their sister: Florida State (6)

Wallflowers: Boston College (10), Virginia Tech (10), Maryland (fourth out), Miami (fifth out)

Maryland was my last team in before Tuesday night’s blowout loss at Clemson.  Sometimes the Terps look worthy of a bid, like when they beat Michigan State, Michigan, Miami, and Virginia Tech, but other times they don’t even show up to play like in double-digit losses to Clemson, UNC, and Duke. 

Still, at 5-6 in the ACC, Maryland isn’t too far away from a bid, but they have a tough road ahead with contests against Carolina, Duke, and Wake left on the schedule. If the Terps can win one of those and then sweep lowly NC State and Virginia on the road to get to 8-8 in the league, they should be in good shape.

Miami is back out of the field following consecutive losses to Duke and UNC, which dropped the Hurricanes to 4-7 in conference. They lost by only a few points in both of those games, but the Canes’ league mark and the fact that they’ve lost five of six has them fifth out right now. 

Miami needs to hold serve at home against BC and NC State. Wins at ACC bottom-dwellers Virginia and Georgia Tech clinch at least a .500 conference record and that should get them in.

Big East

Dancing with a hottie: Connecticut (1), Pittsburgh (1), Louisville (2), Marquette (2), Villanova (3)

Dancing with their sister: Syracuse (5), West Virginia (6)

Wallflowers: Cincinnati (first out), Providence (second out), Notre Dame (seventh out)

Providence is hanging its hat on just one win over Syracuse. Cincinnati doesn’t even have that on its resume as all of the Bearcats’ Big East wins have come against the bottom six of the conference (that includes you, Notre Dame and Georgetown).

While the Irish crept back into the race for an at-large bid with a convincing 90-57 win over Louisville, the Hoyas are no longer in the discussion after their comeback from a 16-point deficit at Syracuse fell short in overtime. 

The Orange really needed that game to right the ship, but their rivals are now sinking fast following their seventh loss in eight games. Georgetown is now 4-8 in conference and needs to win at least four of its final six games before the Big East tournament.

Big Ten

Dancing with a hottie: Michigan State (2)

Dancing with their sister: Illinois (4), Purdue (5), Ohio State (7), Minnesota (8)

Wallflowers: Wisconsin (9), Penn State (third out), Michigan (12th out)

Wisconsin is on a roll. After dropping six straight in January to fall out of the field, the Badgers have bounced back with four consecutive victories over the likes of Illinois, Penn State and Ohio State.

The Nittany Lions, meanwhile, took a nice step back towards an at-large bid with a victory over Minnesota. Penn State has two huge road contests coming up at Illinois and Ohio State. If they can take one of those, they will be in pretty good shape.

Michigan remains in a holding pattern because it hasn’t beaten an RPI top 71 team since Jan. 4. With early season wins over UCLA, Duke, and Illinois, the Wolverines probably just need to get to .500 in the conference to earn a bid.

Big XII

Dancing with a hottie: Oklahoma (1), Missouri (3), Kansas (3)

Wallflowers: Texas (9), Kansas State (12), Oklahoma State (ninth out), Baylor (10th out), Texas A&M (11th out), Nebraska (15th out)

After the top three teams, the Big XII is a mess with six other squads fighting for at-large bids. Texas is going backwards after a loss at A&M marked their fourth defeat in six games. 

Kansas State, meanwhile, snuck back into the field as my final entry following Maryland’s loss on Tuesday night. However, as my buddy Brad Wachtel pointed out in his projections this week, scheduling North Carolina Central (RPI No. 338) for mid-February was a mistake by the Wildcats. 

That game dropped Kansas State’s RPI from 76 to 83 and decreased their strength of schedule from 79 to 101.

Pac-10

Dancing with their sister: Washington (5), Arizona State (5), UCLA (6), California (7)

Wallflowers: Arizona (9), USC (11)

I’m getting pretty schizophrenic with UCLA. I was bashing the Bruins for most of the season for not having any real quality wins on their ledger, but then I catapulted them from a seven seed to a two seed recently after they ran off four straight wins to reach first place in the Pac-10. 

Since then they were swept on the road by Arizona and Arizona State, leaving me to wonder how good this team really is. Wins over USC, Arizona, and Cal are nice, but UCLA is 0-3 versus the top two teams in the league and their RPI currently stands at a mediocre 32.

I love teams that win in February because it makes it easy to pencil them into the brackets. Arizona has now run off seven in a row and is 6-6 versus the top 50. 

USC, on the other hand, is headed in the opposite direction. Three straight losses drop the Trojans to 6-6 in conference. They have some very winnable games coming up in home bouts with Washington State, Oregon and Oregon State. 

Sweeping those contests will clinch a .500 league record, which should be enough to get USC in, but a 10th conference win over either Washington, Cal or Stanford would lock things up.

SEC

Dancing with their sister: LSU (8), South Carolina (8)

Wallflowers: Tennessee (9), Kentucky (11), Florida (11), Mississippi State (16th out)

Kentucky must really not want to dance. After getting back on track with consecutive wins over Florida and Arkansas, the Wildcats lost a relatively easy one at Vanderbilt. 

They’re still 7-4 in conference, but that’s not that great this year when your conference is the SEC. The Cats’ computer numbers are really gross (RPI 65, SOS 80) and four of their last five are against NCAA probables.

Florida, after back-to-back road losses at Kentucky and Georgia, is also in trouble. The Gators have a chance to right the ship with home games against bottom-dwellers Bama and Vandy, but slip up there and they’ll be in worse shape than Kentucky.

Mid-Majors

Dancing with a hottie: Memphis (2), Xavier (4)

Dancing with their sister: Dayton (6), Butler (7), Gonzaga (7), Utah (8)

Wallflowers: UNLV (10), BYU (10), San Diego State (11), Davidson (12), Utah State (12), Siena (12), Temple (sixth out), UAB (eighth out), Creighton (13th out), Illinois State (14th out)

Bracketbusters Week is upon us and there are some teams that could really use the boost. Davidson is not the lock that some people think it is, despite what the Wildcats did in last year’s tournament (which, by the way, has absolutely no bearing on this season’s selections). 

With their first loss in conference and just TWO wins against the top 100, Stephen Curry better lace ‘em up Saturday because Davidson really needs their game against Butler.

The Mountain West has four teams in my bracket this week now that BYU and UNLV are on winning streaks. The Cougars have won five in a row to get to 8-3 in conference.  They have quality wins over just Utah State and San Diego State. Their only bad loss came at RPI No. 74 New Mexico.

The Rebels, meanwhile, are in better shape overall with a 4-3 record versus the top 50, which includes big non-conference victories over Arizona and Louisville.

Don’t look now, but Temple is creeping into the bubble picture after three straight wins have gotten the Owls to 7-3 in the A-10. Their computer numbers are solid (RPI 33, SOS 30) and they have wins over Tennessee and Penn State. 

Still, they’re going to need a win at Dayton on Feb. 28, or a victory over Xavier in the conference tournament.

Automatic Bids

13 seeds: Northern Iowa, VCU, American, Buffalo

14 seeds: Arkansas-Little Rock, Weber State, Robert Morris, Vermont

15 seeds: Cornell, Belmont, North Dakota State, Sam Houston State

16 seeds: Radford, Cal State Northridge, Morgan State, Morehead State, Alabama State

Jordan Schwartz is Bleacher Report's New York Yankees Community Leader. His book "Memoirs of the Unaccomplished Man" is available at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, and authorhouse.com.

Jordan can be reached at [e-mail].