Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Speed Demons You Must Not Overlook
Fantasy baseball veterans know full well that there are two categories that are more frustrating than all the others.
One is saves. The other is stolen bases.
When it comes to stolen bases, everyone knows who the big threats are. Michael Bourn will be in high demand in a given draft, as will guys like Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jose Reyes and so on. Basically, anybody who has a reputation of being an elite stolen-base threat.
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However, some stolen-base threats are going to be largely overlooked in your draft. You'll be able to get them in the mid-to-late rounds, and you shouldn't hesitate to pick one of them up.
Here's a helpful list.
Honorable Mention: Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
I'm including Desmond Jennings on this list because I just get the sense that his speed is not as appreciated as it should be. People are looking at Jennings primarily as a hitting threat, but his ability to steal bases is what will make him a fantasy gold mine this season.
In just 63 games last season, Jennings stole 20 bases. In a full 162-game season, Jennings will easily steal 40 bases, and maybe even 50. Don't forget that.
Jordan Schafer, OF, Houston Astros
Jordan Schafer is currently battling a hand issue, one that Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports is more complicated than a simple hand sprain.
From the sound of things, Schafer may not be able to start the season on time. But whenever he's ready to play, he'll be in play for Houston's starting center-field job. It's not like the Astros have better options, of course.
Schafer can't do much, but he can definitely steal bases. He stole 22 bases last season in just 82 games and 302 at-bats. If he gets regular playing time this season, he'll be a threat to steal 40 bases.
There's no rush on Schafer. He'll go undrafted in most leagues, so you'll at least be able to pick him up late in your draft with one of your last picks. If Schafer gets regular playing time, you'll be greatly rewarded.
Angel Pagan, OF, San Francisco Giants
Not many people noticed, but Angel Pagan stole 32 bases last season. The year before that, he stole 37 bases.
Pagan is on a new team now, but he'll be expected to do pretty much the same thing he's always done with the Giants. He'll be expected to hold down the fort at the leadoff spot, and it's a good bet he'll have the green light to go whenever he reaches first base. The Giants don't have an elite lineup, so it's in their interest to put Pagan in motion.
Pagan just has to stay healthy. He stole his 32 bases in just 123 games last season, so it stands to reason he'll push the 40-steal mark if he plays over 140 games in 2012. He's worth a late-round pick, and he's a safer pick than Schafer because we at least know that Pagan has a starting job to himself.
Jemile Weeks, 2B, Oakland Athletics
Jemile Weeks isn't quite as talented as his older brother, but he had himself a solid rookie season in 2011, batting over .300 in 97 games.
In those 97 games, Weeks stole 22 bases. The downside is that he got caught 11 times, a stat that agrees with the Moneyball philosophy that merely attempting to steal bases is stupid.
But the A's aren't likely to hold Weeks back this season. Heck, they let Coco Crisp attempt nearly 60 steals last season, so it's clear the A's have softened their stance on steals.
Weeks doesn't hit for much power, so I'd expect him to steal upwards of 30 bases in 2012. His value is increased because he plays second base.
Dee Gordon, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
I feel like shouting "Dee Gordon!" and just leaving it at that, but I guess some explanation is required.
Gordon played in just 56 games after getting the call last season, and he ended up with 24 stolen bases.
Think about that for a second. Gordon only played a third of the season, and he ended up among the league leaders in stolen bases. That's impressive.
Over a 162-game season, Gordon could easily steal upwards of 60 stolen bases. All he needs to do is reach base consistently, which is the one big "if" when it comes to Gordon. But given his ability to get infield singles and bunt hits, I'd say he's well worth a gamble.



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