Much like last week in the NFL, the Saints are once again featured in the (seemingly) mismatch game of the day after a blowout of a Colts team that was set up to lose games this season.
This week's recipient is the Rams on the receiving end of upwards of 13 points for the underdog.
It looks like a mismatch on paper, and it is, but per oddsmaker probability, all systems point to the Rams on this one.
It's the third consecutive game the Rams are a 13- to 14-point underdog, and they failed to cover the first two.
That doesn't necessarily mean they can't cover the big number, but rather, it's the third time that is usually the charm—especially when it's three of the same things in a row.
For an illustration of this, look no further than these very St. Louis Rams.
In 2009 the Rams were the worst team in the league and went 1-15. After getting blown out by Minnesota as a 10-point home underdog, they got blown out again by Indianapolis as a 14-point underdog.
Two games later, with a record of 1-7, they found themselves a 14-point underdog once again.
Ironically, it was against the New Orleans Saints.
The result was just a five-point loss.
The moral of the story: If you sat back and watched the Rams get blown out as 10- and 14-point underdogs, that's great, but jump on for the ride in that third time.
Later that season, the Rams were coming off a 40-point blowout at Tennessee as a 14-point underdog and surprised fans once again the very next week when they lost by just three points to Houston as a 14-point underdog with little known Keith Null, who didn't even attend a Division I college, starting at quarterback.
It's not a great idea to simply count on bad teams to cover big spreads consistently (unless you're talking about the 2009 Detroit Lions, who went 0-16 but covered seven of eight games as a double digit underdog). But if you sit back and wait, and watch any team get blown out twice in a row as a 14-point underdog, and they are a 14-point underdog for a third time, take them then.
And let's not forget it was these Saints who lost outright last season at Arizona with Max Hall making his first start as a rookie for the Cardinals.
Anything can happen.
So if you sat back and watched the Rams fail to cover 14 points at Green Bay and 13.5 points at Dallas, step in for that third chance, and try it here.
The Rams are the worst offensive team in the league and are averaging less than 10 points a game.
The question is: Having scored no more than one touchdown in each of their first six games, will the trend continue, or are the Rams due for some scoring?
The Rams have been able to move the ball at times, but penalties and dropped passes have crippled the offense. With the addition of veteran Brandon Lloyd, who led the team in receiving yards at Dallas, there's only one way to go, and that's up.
Unlike the Colts, at least the Rams are taking steps to improve the offense with acquisitions.
Teams coming off 28-plus-point losses are a winning proposition against the spread in the NFL as an underdog in the following week, especially when the next game has them as a double digit home underdog.
Minnesota is a perfect example of this last weekend, and the Vikings achieved it with a rookie quarterback making his first start against the best team in the league.
The Saints are coming off a 62-7 win, but last season they defeated Tampa Bay 31-6, then lost by 13 points at home to Cleveland as a 12.5-point favorite.
There's no question they are a superior team to the Rams, but also consider New Orleans failed to win on the road, by as many points as it is favored by here, against a pair of rookie quarterbacks (at Carolina and Jacksonville).
Sam Bradford is doubtful for this game, but whoever starts at quarterback for the Rams will be inferior to Drew Brees.
Still, look for St. Louis to stay within the big number, as that third time could be the charm.
Take St. Louis to cover 13.5 points
Follow Mark all season at www.TheFallMiracle.com