Boise State or Ohio State? Let the BCS At-Large Debate Begin

Now that the BCS picture is starting to clear up—sort of—it's time to start thinking about BCS at-large bids.

For the first time ever, there are four Non-BCS league teams that qualify for at-large bids. Utah, Boise State, TCU, and Ball State are all in the current BCS top 12, making them eligible for at-large spots in the BCS. However, only the highest ranking team, Utah, is guaranteed a spot. The fate of the rest is up to the discretion of the BCS bowls.

If any of these schools, other than Utah, receive a BCS berth it's likely to go to Boise State. Unfortunately for the Broncos, this certainly is not guaranteed since Ohio State is also eligible for an at-large berth. Seems like we have a good old fashioned BCS quagmire on our hands.

Remember, the only job of the BCS is to determine the top two teams and put them in the title game. After that, the bowls are in business to make money. This means you have to throw things like "emotion" and "fairness" out of the window. Just last year Kansas received a BCS at-large berth over Missouri (who beat Kansas and was also eligible).

Let's take a look at the resumes of Boise State and Ohio State...

Boise State

Conference: WAC
Record: 12-0 (8-0, Conference Champion)
BCS Standing: 9
Sagarin Rating: 11
Sagarin Strength of Schedule: 115
vs Top 10: n/a
vs Top 30: 1-0
Signature Win: @ Oregon (9-3)
TV Rating in BCS Games: 2007 Fiesta - 8.4

Ohio State

Conference: Big Ten
Record: 10-2 (7-1, Big 10 Runner-Up)
BCS Standing: 10
Sagarin Rating: 10
Sagarin Strength of Schedule: 43
vs Top 10: 0-2
vs Top 30: 1-2
Signature Win: @ Michigan State (9-3)
TV Rating in BCS Games: 2008 NCG - 17.4, 2007 NCG - 17.4,
2006 Fiesta - 12.9, 2004 Fiesta - 8.7, 2003 NCG - 17.2

Argument for Boise State

The Broncos are undefeated and undisputed conference champions. The last time they played in a BCS bowl they shocked the world by knocking off the mighty Oklahoma Sooners. The Broncos don't play in the strongest conference but they beat a good Oregon team on the road.

The Broncos are rated higher by the BCS and deserve the chance to play in a big time bowl. Plus, Ohio State has been dominated in their last two bowls and nobody wants to watch that happen again, give someone else a shot. The Buckeyes got blasted by USC earlier this year, we already know they aren't an elite team. America loves to see the underdog and Boise State is the team they want to see.

Argument for Ohio State

The Buckeyes are Co-Champions of the Big Ten and played a stronger schedule than the Broncos. The Buckeyes improved as the season progressed and aren't the same team that lost to USC earlier in the season. Further, Ohio State has one of the largest followings in college football and in today's down economy the Buckeyes will help the BCS make more money.

Also, even though the Buckeyes lost the last two title games, that doesn't mean people won't watch them in a BCS bowl (look at the TV ratings of the last two title games). Whether fans are rooting for Ohio State, or hoping that the Buckeyes lose, they'll be watching. 

Prediction

The BCS bowls will select Ohio State, and they won't lose a wink of sleep. Sorry Boise State fans, this is a business and Ohio State is the better business move.