Philadelphia Phillies: Can the Atlanta Braves Catch Them in the NL East?

Philadelphia Phillies fans largely believe that first place is all but wrapped up. They have a six-game lead with just over a month left in the season. The Phillies have the best record in baseball. Why bother worrying?

The Atlanta Braves are the reason why. Even though they are six games behind the Phillies in the division, they have the second-best record in the entire National League. They are on a hot streak right now as they have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games. They obviously have a lot of talent, yet Phillies fans don't seem overly concerned.

However, should they be? Let's take a look.

The Phillies Have Better Pitching... Just Barely.

Not only does the Phillies pitching staff have the most wins in baseball, but they also have the best ERA. Led by a trio of Cy Young contenders in Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels, the Phillies pitching staff has put up a 3.08 ERA. The bullpen has been shaky lately, but with this front end of the rotation, the bullpen does not have to do as much.

This is not to say that the Braves are bad by any means. They have had a great year, especially in the bullpen with Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, and Eric O'Flaherty. Combined, these three have given up 29 earned runs in 196 innings so far. That is pretty dominant to say the least. The rotation has been solid as well, and the staff as a whole has the third-best ERA in baseball.

Nevertheless, that Phillies rotation gives them the upper hand in this battle.

Neither Offense Is Particularly Outstanding.

The Phillies offense has not necessarily been lighting it up so far this season. They are only batting .254 as a team and are ranked 11th in runs scored. For a team that is traditionally near the top of the league and plays in an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark, that is definitely surprising.

The Braves have not done much better. In fact, Atlanta has displayed more power this season by ranking sixth in home runs with 149, while the Phillies are in 16th with only 122. Atlanta's team batting average however is even lower than the Phillies at .247.

Neither team has that great an offense, but with great pitching, they normally  don't need that much run support anyway.

They Are Going to Play Each Other Six More Times.

The Phillies have a six-game lead. However, what if Atlanta is able to beat Philadelphia in a majority of these games and shrink that lead?

Head-to-head match-ups definitely make a difference, because one team is going to win and the other inevitably will lose. There will not be a situation where both teams will win on the same day and the status quo remains unchanged.

In these two series, the National League East will probably be decided. Even though there is an entire month left, both the Phillies and Braves will probably be able to win a majority of their other games. These head-to-head match-ups will make the difference.

So, What Is Going to Happen?

Two pitching-dominated series are going to play a large part in this race. Therefore, to figure out if the Phillies are safe, it logically follows that a lot of it will come down to how well they match up with the Braves.

The Phillies have had a better pitching staff so far, but the Braves staff is also very good. Neither team has particularly been able to hammer the ball very well. It's hard to predict because the teams match up very well.

Nevertheless, the Phillies should not be too worried about losing the division. If they match that well, then it is very possible that they split the six remaining games, which means the Phillies lead would remain unchanged.

Baseball is unpredictable, so any type of speculation is simply that. That being said, six games is a lot to gain on the team that has the best record in baseball.