Jamaal Charles: Darkhorse for the Top Pick in 2011 Fantasy Football Drafts

The lockout is lifting, and along with the excitement for a new season, the buzz of fantasy football will begin to fill warm summer afternoons. Workers will begin the joyous ritual of wasting cycles in the office investigating the latest 2011 fantasy football rankings, and day dreaming about getting the first overall selection in their upcoming fantasy draft.

Which begs the question – which NFL player is most deserving of the top overall selection? It is easy to say Adrian Peterson; he has rushed for 1,000 yards or more in four straight seasons and most fantasy football advice magazines have stuck him at the top of the heap. But the reality is that the choice is not so simple.

Adrian Peterson's offense will have a number of significant question marks. In fact, it is not hard to argue that the Vikings are headed in the wrong direction. They have no established quarterback, and could be potentially relying on a rookie passer with a mediocre arm. In addition, it seems unlikely that Sidney Rice will return to Minnesota. He is going to be paid handsomely on the open market, and the Vikings have a number of holes to fill along the defensive line. Therefore, they may not be able to spend lavishly on a deep threat.  That would leave two significant holes in the Minnesota offense.  In short, the Vikings may struggle to score high point totals in 2011.

So, who should hold the No. 1 overall fantasy football ranking in 2011? In addition to Peterson, a case could be made for Arian Foster, Chris Johnson and several others. I believe the dark horse candidate is Jamaal Charles of the Kansas City Chiefs. Before you go huffing off to another fantasy football article, take pause and consider the data.

 Jamaal Charles finished the season with a jaw dropping 0.9 fantasy points per opportunity!

That is an incredible number, and shows a level of explosiveness that few players in the NFL have today. Chris Johnson of the Titans is as explosive, but his offense is in shambles and is far from reliable.

The Chiefs offer an adequate passing attack that can keep opposing defenses honest—and stop them from stacking the box.  The Chiefs also boast a pair of tall, physical wide outs that excel at picking up first downs (which will give Charles additional touches)—who are willing blockers in the run game.

Charles finished the season with an average of 15 points per game (in PPR formats), which is made more impressive by the fact that he contributed 21pts and 23pts during the fantasy championship weeks. While that can't be counted on in future years, it is nice to know that your fantasy #1 has helped win a title in the past.

Consider these facts about Jamaal Charles:

• Jamaal Charles is young, healthy and entering the prime of his career.
• Charles scored 240 fantasy points in 2010 while sharing time in a developing offense.
• Charles averaged 0.9 fantasy points per opportunity—an incredible number.
• Charles did not see his explosiveness reduce when worked harder—he averaged 0.8, 1.1 and 0.6 fantasy points per opportunity in the three contests that he saw 20+ carries.
• Charles is surrounded by good talent, but not the type of elite talent that would take away touches.
• In the three games that Charles carried the ball 20+ times in 2010, he scored 21, 25, and 13 points (in PPR formats.)
• Thomas Jones is beginning to slow down, and Charles will see additional carries in 2011.
• Charles began to contribute more in the passing game as the year went on and is likely to see 3 to 6 receptions per game in 2011.
• Charles registered 40+ receiving yards in five contests in 2010.
• In 275 opportunities, Charles fumbled the ball only 3 times.