Oregon-Arizona State: Ducks Fly South to Face the Sun Devils

Looking at the records for Oregon and Arizona State, you would think the Ducks would be more than four-point favorites this Saturday. But once you take a look at Oregon’s wins, you start to wonder if they should be favored at all.

Consider the teams the Ducks have beaten: Washington, Utah State, Purdue, Washington State, and UCLA. Not one of these teams has a winning record.

The Huskies, Aggies, and Cougars are three of the worst teams in the country, and it is to be hoped that a team with as much talent as the Ducks would beat them as handily as they did.

But it took a couple missed field goals by a Purdue team that will finish near the bottom of the Big Ten to down the Boilermakers and a recovery of an onside kick to put the Bruins to bed.

Oregon has been stout against the run, but despite having three players in the secondary on the preseason Thorpe Award watch list, the Ducks have been carved up by opposing passers. Part of it is lingering injuries in the secondary, but the bigger factor has been an overeagerness of defensive backs to play run support and getting burned by play action.

On offense, the Ducks have lived and died by the running game. Against Boise State the runners were swamped by nine Broncos in the box until the fourth quarter, and the Ducks simply couldn’t keep up with BSU’s offense. Against USC the entire offense was inept. Oregon’s only scoring drives were aided by penalties.

The passing game has been hampered by repeated QB injuries, but the Ducks receivers have not helped matters with so many dropped passes.

The Sun Devils have had problems of their own. After a strong run in Dennis Erickson’s first year on the job, many thought ASU would challenge USC for the Pac-10 throne. But the Sun Devils' running game has been close to nonexistent, and the defense hasn’t been able to cover for the offense's struggles.

With quarterback Rudy Carpenter nursing injuries, they were shut out against the Trojans despite gaining five turnovers.

If Oregon is really going to get on track, they must establish a passing game. Jeremiah Masoli proved against UCLA he is more than capable as a runner in the spread option, but he was a miserable 5-for-19 passing. Still, it could have been an almost respectable 10-of-19 if the Ducks receivers hadn’t dropped five balls.

Justin Roper is healthy again, and while Masoli has been better statistically, there are questions about who gives the best balance to the offense.

Both of Oregon’s quarterbacks will seemingly play, and one of them has to establish a rapport with the receivers if this offense is to fulfill its potential. Dropped passes have haunted Oregon this year, and against the better teams in the conference they simply cannot afford such mistakes. Teams like the Sun Devils will make the Ducks pay for such slip-ups.

The Ducks' dinged-up secondary has had a bye week to heal up before trying to deal with Arizona State. It’s a good thing too, as the Sun Devils have improved their pass protection since last year in Eugene.

With the Sun Devils' running game struggling, the Ducks' best bet is to keep all the defensive backs in coverage and dare Arizona State to drive down the field by running through the front seven. By the same token, expect the Sun Devils to load the box and dare the Ducks to throw the ball downfield.

This weekend’s untelevised (isn’t that illegal yet?) game in the desert will be an interesting matchup of contrasting offensive strengths: the Ducks' running game and the Sun Devils' passing game. The worry for Ducks fans is that Arizona State has been decent against the run, but Oregon has struggled against the pass.

To win, the Ducks have to have a positive turnover margin (meaning no dropped interceptions like against UCLA) and make more plays on special teams than the Sun Devils.

This game makes me, and probably a lot of other Duck fans, very nervous. ASU is a dangerous team that is desperate for a win. With a trip to Berkeley on the horizon, Oregon needs this game to ensure at least a split on this tough two-week road trip.

If the defense can firm up against the pass, Oregon will keep its streak against the Sun Devils alive. If not, it could be a long night of listening to Jerry and Mike call the game on the radio.

MY VERDICT: Oregon Ducks 24, Arizona State Sun Devils 20