Ah, 2004. The last time we had a presidential election. The last time we had the summer Olympics.
It was also the year we had an undefeated Auburn team shut out of the national title game, launching the SEC's unofficial public relations campaign to ensure that would never happen again.
The modern conference wars that have been raging the past couple seasons can be traced back to that occurrence.
After the past two seasons, it would seem impossible for an unbeaten SEC club to be shut out again. You'd be hard-pressed to find someone who is not a fanatical partisan for a different league who doesn't think the SEC is the best of the conferences.
Be they Bruce Feldman, Jeff Sagarin, or Sports Illustrated, they all say the SEC is the best of the bunch.
I can't tell you how many times in recent seasons that I've heard that we won't see another undefeated SEC champion shut out of the national title game, like when Auburn was passed up for USC and Oklahoma.
Yet look at the rankings, and what do you see? USC at No. 1, Oklahoma at No. 2, and an undefeated SEC team at No. 3.
Now it's only the fourth week of the season, so it's far too early to sound any alarms just yet. There's way too much football left to be played to get too worked up over it.
However, the fact that the same two teams that were at the top in 2004 are at the top now got me thinking.
USC appears to be entrenched at the top of the polls. As long as the Trojans don't lose, they won't fall. They have a popular coach, star power on the field, and the most powerful brand in college football today. In what appears to be a down Pac-10, USC will be able to run up the kinds of huge blowouts that will prevent them from falling.
Oklahoma appears to be the class of the Big 12, which is the consensus No. 2 best conference. If someone doesn't have the SEC as the best now, they've got the Big 12 there.
Thanks to the relative lack of defense in the conference, Oklahoma should also be able to run up huge scores to impress voters. Since OU is about the only team in the league that does play tough D, that will probably lead to more blowouts.
The SEC, on the other hand, definitely has a lot of tough defenses. The offenses appear to have some issues with so many first year coordinators and quarterbacks, but the defenses are definitely there. It will be difficult for anyone in the league, even Florida and Georgia, to run up many blowouts in conference play.
If the eventual SEC champ goes undefeated without scoring gobs of points, will that be enough to pass up USC or Oklahoma? In past years the answer would almost certainly be no, but there has been enough shuffling in the top five so far to think that it might.
However, the longer the season goes on the more inertia there is in the polls, so the longer USC and Oklahoma stay at the top, the less likely they are to fall without dropping a game.
What would you say to Oklahoma, the team that most likely gets passed up by an undefeated SEC team? They did all they could do, were in position, and still couldn't get to the national title game. It would be like the argument Georgia made last season, only the Sooners would have a conference title in their pocket.
If you're going to use the conference strength argument—that being the SEC champ is worth more than being the Big 12 champ—then Oklahoma shouldn't be the team left out. USC would need to be passed up because there is no way the Pac-10 is as good as the SEC or Big 12 this season.
I don't want to imply that the SEC has a birthright on the national title game. Just because it is the best conference top-to-bottom doesn't necessarily mean it will produce one of the two best teams.
However, we have a rock-paper-scissors scenario. USC is in the weakest conference but will have the strongest non-conference slate, the SEC team is in the strongest conference but (if it's not Georgia) probably the weakest non-conference slate, and Oklahoma is right in between.
This is the kind of paradox that makes the BCS a bad thing. A team can win all of its games, which is all anyone can do, and not have a chance to play for the national title. It's something that will definitely be monitored closely throughout the rest of the season.
20 comments Last one added 9 months ago — Leave a Comment
Patterson 9 months ago
I don't think this is impossible, I think it is probable. The media has been mired in a USC lovefest since the Virginia game, and the OU lovefest is beginning in earnest. If you didn't know better you would think Georgia had lost 4 games this year and that the rest of the SEC was a joke.
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Brett Lissenden 9 months ago
I don't think this is really something to be concerned about anymore. Last year proved that the parity at the top of college football is at a premium right now. The only team with a really legitimate shot at expecting to go undefeated is USC, and thats because of a favorable conference schedule against a weaker conference. However, I am still fully confident USC will lose at least one game -- they usually lose to teams they are better than at least once throughout the season. If an SEC team goes undefeated they will be in the championship. Don't see an SEC team going undefeated though...
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Isaac Luber 9 months ago
I agree with Brett about an SEC team going undefeated. It probably won't happen. I think that USC is not as strong as they were in their championship years, three years ago, and could easily have another Stanford-like upset happen to them. Oklahoma plays many weak teams in their conference, and an upset is less likely. I would say Texas may be the only team that has a shot at beating Oklahoma, or Mizzou. However, Texas is questionable overall and Mizzou, although having a dynamic offense, has no defense. Oklahoma could collapse, of course. Look out for Penn State going undefeated and taking that #2 spot if USC or Oklahoma loses.
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Edmon 9 months ago
I think USC could still fall to three and go undefeated. At the end of the season, if you have an undefeated Big XII and an undefeated SEC, I think USC gets pushed out. Voters have slowly worked on their final votes. Taking into account the whole body of work. USC's marquee game has passed and to be be honest, doesn't look that impressive. If Okalahoma/Missouri and a SEC team btoh go undefeated, their resumes will far surpass that of USC. Who knows what will happen though. The season is a long way from over.
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Vamsi Adusumilli 9 months ago
No way SC gets left out, the author is correct. The most prestigious and lauded team in recent years, with one of the biggest wins of the season. Not all 5 SEC teams will stay top 10, some will get 3-5 losses and those games won't seem as impressive, though the others will. Georgia could maybe leapfrog everyone, but 14-7, 3-2 wins don't impress anyone outside of the south, especially when a #1 team elsewhere is putting up 35-3 wins.
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Mark Rupert 9 months ago
I think the question is will a one loss SEC team get passed over. LSU had two losses last year and still showed that they were legit. Fla was also not undefeated and did the same.
I believe there has only been two undefeated SEC teams in the last ten years. I don't think you should hold the SEC Champion to the standard that Oklahoma and USC are undefeated and Ga, Fla or who ever has one loss so they are left out. A one loss SEC Champ has acomplished more than an undefeated USC or Oklahoma and recent history bears this out.
The answer is yes, we will see a undefeated or once beaten SEC team passed over and it will happen in the next three years.
I don't think there is a conspiracy but the fact is most at ESPN and most at newspapers who have votes don't come from the South. I am a diehard Ga fan but I would much rather see Fla or LSU win than USC or some team from the North. I have nothing against any region but identify with the South it's what I know, this is human nature. The teams from the South are at a disadvantage plain and simple.
SEC fans should get ready because it's comming, will your team get the short end next time.
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Roy LaFaver 9 months ago
Two points, david.
First, I think Florida and LSU has put to rest any doubt about the SEC.
Second, I think it will be a long time before another SEC team goes undefeated. Too much money and too much top coaching for too many conference members.
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Doug Kraus 9 months ago
I think if USC wins out they are in, period. I'm not saying they deserve it, but from what I've seen so far they already playing at a year end level. They are impressive even if you consider VA and OSU as easy wins.
The Big 12 certainly seems to be shaping up for a championship game featuring Oklahoma and Missiouri. Both of these teams look impressive right now. I don't think anybody is going to make it through the SEC undefeated, but if there is one it will be FL. Personally I think it will come down to how impressive FL wins the SEC championship game versus the OK-MO game outcome.
I'd rather see FL or MO play USC since Oklahoma's BCS performances make what OSU did the past two years look impressive.
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12 9 months ago
I think if an SEC team goes undefeated and things stay the same regarding #1 USC and #2 Oklahoma, the strength of schedule should vault the SEC team over Oklahoma. I'm not saying it will, I'm saying it should. Let's say Georgia wins out...they have endured a much tougher schedule than either Oklahoma or USC, so how could you leave them out? Yes, this happened to Auburn in 2004, and that is the reason I think the polls will change around game 8 or 9, maybe even sooner. Auburn deserved the right to play for the NC that year, and if Georgia gets through the season unscathed, they deserve a shot over any other team in the country...including USC and Oklahoma.
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D G 9 months ago
"strength of schedule should vault the SEC team over Oklahoma"
Please explain your logic?
This scenerio is based on today's top 25.
Assuming every team in the top five wins all their games except either FL or Ga. The loser of FL and GA wins all their games also.
Top 5 before Conf Champ.
1. USC
2. Oklahoma
3. FL or GA
4. Mizzou
5. ?
Look at OU's schedule. Add a win against #4 Mizzou in the conf championship.
Now look at USC's schedule and your top SEC team's schedule. Add a win in SEC conf championship.
OU has a weaker schedule? Am I missing something here?
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12 9 months ago
So you're telling me Oklahoma's schedule will be as strong as Georgia's? Not even close. I guess you are missing something here. Georgia plays Arizona St. on the road, Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, LSU on the road, Florida on the road, Kentucky on the road, and Auburn, yep...on the road. Then they finish with Ga. Tech. Oklahoma's schedule can't come close to matching that. Yes, Oklahoma has a weaker schedule..not even close.
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12 9 months ago
Oh, and I left out the SEC Championship game. Any team that can survive that schedule undefeated deserves to go to the BCS Championship game.
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Scientizzle FoShizzle 9 months ago
Hold on...nobody has played more than three games so far, right? Is this mid-Septmeber hand-wringing (evident in the comment section here, and popping up sporadically on teh intarwebs) actually indicative of an SEC culture with institutionalized fragile psyches?
Folks, most teams have 9-10 more games to play...it's lunacy to play hypotheticals regarding the BCS championship game less than a quarter of the way in! Any projection of final season schedule strength is similarly fatuous; for example, I don't think it's implausible that Auburn, Bama and Arkansas each end up barely bowl eligble, which would make Georgia's or LSU's respective schedules considerably less imposing.
Seriously. To date, the entire 12-team conference has played 6 of its total 26 games against BCS conference squads--not a good measure of actual team quality.
Let the season play out, let the cream rise, and don't worry about the BCS until you know who's playing in the SEC championship game...then y'all can, if necessary, get your undies in a bunch.
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12 9 months ago
It's hypothetical...loosen up and have some fun.
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john brewer 9 months ago
david is right on track. uga is what 10-0 in it's last 10 games and they have gone DOWN in the last 4 regular season polls dating to december of last year. read that sentence again.
uscn i mean espn is is making a fool of itself these days. come on, last saturday was ridiculous. i watched the end of the game then turned on sportscenter and i saw the same interview with the usc qback three times before there was a single mention or highlight about numbers 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 .....................
florida has the best chance to make a perfect run and you know that will send the BCS into turmoil. i'm a dawg fan but i would almost want to lose nov. 1st just to see it.
could you imagine florida at number 3 and usc and oklahoma 1 and 2. ESPN would shit.
god could you believe the crap that would come out of herbie's mouth then.
best team now no hottest team now no body of work no vote your heart no vote your head no vote ohio state.
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SEC Idiots .com 9 months ago
Good article. I agree, assuming everyone would win out. I don't think any of them will, though. There are too many teams that are decent and can get up for one game. LSU won all its big games last year, but lost to UK and Ark - not exactly their toughest opponents. I don't understand why Oklahoma's reputation hasn't taken a beating after their BCS bowls like Ohio State's has. Here are my thoughts on that. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/57984-oklahoma-the-other-ohio-state OU fans didn't agree.
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Ronald Weathersby 9 months ago
Wow you SEC guys think your conference has a God-given right to go to the BCS Championship. Lighten up!
Still whining about Auburn! Get over it!
The only way CFB will be able to steer clear of its championship controversy will be to hold a playoff. Until then somebody is going to get screwed nearly every year. The polls gave the SEC first crack at the BCS Championship by naming Georgia number one to start the season. All they had to do was to hold on to that ranking by winning. The fact that they scheduled a bunch of cream puffs to start the season and could not beat them decisively enough while other Top 10 schools schedules BCS Conference schools and whipped then reordered the polls. USC and Oklahoma have usurped Georgia and Ohio State for the inside track to Miami.
Now that the conference schedule is about to get going only a loss will juggle the standings. So, if USC and Oklahoma win out chances are they will be meeting in Miami again.
Too bad. I really was looking forward to seeing USC dominate another SEC team for the championship. (I really enjoyed wearing my USC cap when I was in Auburn shortly after the last time they went down there and schooled the SEC.) Who knows? Maybe Vandy will win out and get a chance to go to football school on January 8. Someone has to.
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David Wunderlich 9 months ago
...and I quote directly from the article:
"I don't want to imply that the SEC has a birthright on the national title game. Just because it is the best conference top-to-bottom doesn't necessarily mean it will produce one of the two best teams."
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Joe Crow 9 months ago
is it coincidence that auburn beat better teams more impressively than usc in 2004, had less close games and couldnt jump either usc or oklahoma, yet this year when a no.2 team jumps the preseason no.1 after one game that no.2 team just happens to be usc. of course it isnt coincidence.
the sec wins that you're so proud of came against an auburn team that finished with 8 wins, an arkansas team that finished with 4 wins and an unranked arkansas team to open up the 2006 season.
this is why we need a plus one system because of the possibility we end up with 3 teams undefeated from bcs conferences or 3 teams with similar resumes. if usc, the big 12 winner, and sec winner all are undefeated of course it should be the big 12 vs the sec. assuming they are equally impressive, and the sec/big 12 winners didnt get away with some flukes or bad calls that allowed them to remain unbeaten, then how can you have two teams that go undefeated in conferences with multiple top 10 teams and have one of them passed up by a team that currently only has one other team in the conference ranked. things can obviously change and i doubt someone goes undefeated in the sec but if the big 12/sec winner have one loss each and the no.1 team is an undefeated usc, we're in a similar scenario. you would think the 2004 auburn debacle would be enough for them to have immediately set the wheels in motion towards a plus one, yet we had to wait til last year for them just to have a discussion on it and it was promptly shot down.
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john brewer 9 months ago
david is right on track. uga is what 10-0 in it's last 10 games and they have gone DOWN in the last 4 regular season polls dating to december of last year. read that sentence again.
uscn i mean espn is is making a fool of itself these days. come on, last saturday was ridiculous. i watched the end of the game then turned on sportscenter and i saw the same interview with the usc qback three times before there was a single mention or highlight about numbers 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 .....................
florida has the best chance to make a perfect run and you know that will send the BCS into turmoil. i'm a dawg fan but i would almost want to lose nov. 1st just to see it.
could you imagine florida at number 3 and usc and oklahoma 1 and 2. ESPN would shit.
god could you believe the crap that would come out of herbie's mouth then.
best team now no hottest team now no body of work no vote your heart no vote your head no vote ohio state.
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