NFL Week One Picks

Derek Lofland, NFL Director at Fantasy Football Maniaxs

Last year I only picked the five most important games every week. This year I am going to pick every game and list my running record at the top of the page. I will touch on the five most important games of that week and just write a few sentences about the rest.

I am not picking against the spread. Just straight up winners and losers.

Here is the opening slate of games:

1. Washington Redskins at New York Giants

This is going to be another NFC East slugfest. Defending champions always have a bullseye on their back and for the New York Giants it will be no different. Eli Manning is going to have to play with the same composure he did throughout the postseason last year.

The huge losses on defense from a year ago will not make the Giants bottom out as a unit, but they are significant. The Redskins are now in the Jim Zorn era and will look to win their first game.

I like the Giants in the opener. I don’t think the Redskins have an explosive enough offense and the Redskins are pretty banged up on the defensive line.

Jason Taylor is expected to play, but how well he will play is a different question.

I think the Giants will be able to establish the run, capitalize on some play action passing, and win the game. 

Winner: NY Giants

2. Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Early divisional games are always important and this one is no different. The AFC South is a loaded division and both of these teams made the playoffs in 2007.

The Jaguars ended last season as one of the hottest teams in the NFL and will look to open with that form. The Titans are still very similar to last season featuring a strong defense, a good running game, and a questionable passing game.

They were able to beat the Jaguars in last season’s opener behind a running game explosion. I don’t expect that to happen this year.

I think that Jacksonville will stop the run much better this time around to open up the season with a much needed road win. It will be low scoring, but the Jaguars have the backs and the defense to win that type of game.

Winner: Jacksonville

3. Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns

This is a very intriguing matchup between two very explosive offenses. The Cowboys' offense features Terrell Owens, who has been one of the best in the business for several years now.

The Browns' offense features Braylon Edwards, who exploded onto the scene in his third year. Both are touchdown machines.

Edwards was second in the NFL with 16 touchdown catches and Owens was third with 15 touchdown catches in 2007. However, that is really where the intrigue stops.

The Cowboys have a massive offensive line, and while the Browns' front seven is improved, it isn’t improved enough. They will either have to stack the box and let Owens go through their secondary, or they will have to double Owens and watch Marion Barber destroy them.

I expect the Cowboys to put up a lot of points and win this high-scoring game.

Winner: Dallas

4. Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts

Another AFC vs. NFC game. Lost in the fact that Green Bay is Chicago’s biggest rivalry is the fact that these teams are only a couple hours apart. The Indiana vs. Illinois rivalry is very strong too. These teams met in the Super Bowl just two seasons ago.

While it will never have the intensity of a Packers vs. Bears game, it is still a good game to watch every four years. Chicago has a chance in this game if their offense can move the ball and not make silly mistakes.

I don’t expect Manning to go 35 for 45 with 400 yards and five touchdowns, seeing as he just started practicing a week ago.

The Colts will hope to feature a strong running game and let Manning get into a flow after missing so much time. I think the Bears could force some Colts mistakes, particularly in the first half.

However, I don’t think they have the offense to take advantage of that. I expect the Colts to win their opener in their new stadium.

Winner: Indianapolis

5. Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

The first game of the post-Favre era kicks off in Green Bay against longtime rival Minnesota. This was supposed to be a celebration of one of the greatest careers the NFL has ever seen.

Instead, Favre is now a Jet and the comparisons will start with this game. Each player will be evaluated versus the other. Each team’s wins and losses will be compared with the other. The biggest story of the 2008 season will be how Aaron Rodgers does compared to Favre and how the Packers do compared to the Jets.

I like the Vikings in this game. I think they are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder, as they became part of this soap opera when they were charged and later cleared of tampering with Favre. Nothing would please them more than to embarrass the Packers.

I think Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor will be able to establish the run against the Packers' front seven. Ryan Grant has had a sore hamstring the entire season. I don’t expect him to be effective against this tough run defense.

With no running game, I don’t expect Rodgers to have a great night. I think his biggest strength will be play-action passing and using his mobility to get out of the pocket.

It’s hard to do that if the running game isn’t working. I think the Minnesota front seven will put pressure on Rodgers and force some sacks and turnovers. It should be a close game, but I expect the Vikings to prevail.

Winner: Minnesota

And the Rest...

6. Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons

Detroit uses its preseason momentum and strong receiving core to prevail in Atlanta.

Winner: Detroit

7. Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills

I already have many Hawks fans upset and this isn't going to help repair my image. This has the potential to be the upset of the week. Seattle isn’t a very good road team and has a lot of receivers that are injured. They played well in the preseason, but this is the regular season. 

Buffalo is a tough place to play and the Bills seem to be improved from a year ago. Seattle's defense will play well and keep it close. I am still going with Seattle, but I expect a very close game.

Winner: Seattle

8. NY Jets at Miami Dolphins

I expect the Jets to simplify the playbook. Expect a light day for Favre and a heavy dose of Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. The Jets will win their opening game against an improved Dolphin team.

Winner: NY Jets

9. Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

Now that the games matter and Brady is playing, expect a better effort. The Patriots will win in their opener and win big.

Winner: New England

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

New Orleans played Tampa Bay awfully last year in both games. One blowout and one gift. I expect New Orleans to turn that around this year. I like Drew Brees to have a good day and the Saints to prevail.

Winner: New Orleans

11. St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

St. Louis has a world of problems on defense. Philly has some concerns on offense with Kevin Curtis out. Philly still has the better team. Brian Westbrook will win the showdown with Steven Jackson and the Eagles will win the game.

Winner: Philadelphia

12. Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh has a lot to prove after their disappointing end to the 2007 season. Houston is improved, but not enough to go to Pittsburgh and win. I'll take the Steelers in a close one.

Winner: Pittsburgh

13. Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati always plays Baltimore strong. Bengals come into this game a little hurt at the receiver spot, but I expect the offense to play well enough to escape Baltimore with a win.

Winner: Cincinnati

14. Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers

The Chargers have one of the deepest teams in the NFL. They may need it with all the injuries they have. I expect them to play tough at home on both sides of the ball and win a close one against the Steve Smith-less Panthers.

Winner: San Diego

15. Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Kurt Warner is going to have a big day in this game. The 49ers may be able to put up some points in this game, but not enough to win against Arizona.

Winner: Arizona

16. Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

I don’t know which team to pick here. Oakland runs the ball very well and Denver couldn’t stop it last year. The same applies to the Denver running game and the Raider rush defense.

The Broncos are without WR Brandon Marshall, who is one of their biggest weapons.  That is huge for the Raiders. On the flip side, JaMarcus Russell is going to have to pass against a very tough secondary. I like Denver to run the ball well in this game and pull out a close win.

Winner: Denver