Of Dogs, Bulls, and Rodeos: A UFC 87 Breakdown
GSP vs. Fitch
This Saturday, Aug. 9, 2008, Jon Fitch will attempt the (nearly) unthinkable: to wrest the UFC Welterweight Championship belt from superhuman incumbent Georges St. Pierre.
Fitch has not lost a bout in six years, that loss coming by way of Wilson Gouveia’s knee. It should be noted that Gouveia typically fights two weight classes heavier than Fitch.
In his six year, 15-fight win streak, Fitch has managed to submit the very resilient Luigi Fioravanti and "the People’s Warrior" Josh Burkman. He TKO’d the dangerously explosive Thiago Alvez and bested Diego Sanchez for three rounds for a split decision.
But does Fitch have the tools to beat GSP? At a cursory glance at their records, Fitch appears to be the more consistent fighter. GSP has lost two fights in the last four years, and he failed to defend his belt from TUF winner Matt Serra.
However, when you look at each of their lists of opponents, there is not one fighter in common. GSP has fought the likes of Karo Parisyan, Jason Miller, Frank Trigg, Sean Sherk, B.J. Penn, Matt Hughes, and Josh Koscheck. And he has beaten them. His only two losses were avenged savagely and definitively.
Fitch’s competition is comprised mostly of fighters who barely scrape the top-10 lists.
Most consider GSP to be the heavy favorite—partially due to the list of champions he has left bobbing and defeated in his wake. His athleticism is another clear indicator that GSP is truly at the top of the food chain.
St. Pierre’s speed, strength, flexibility and cardio are truly second to none in the division (although Thiago Alvez has become quite intimidating). He also possesses a vast lexicon of strikes and submissions, which he has used to finish his opponents, makes him who he is.
So how can Fitch address this problem that is GSP? For one, he’s a very resilient, consistent fighter. He’s a strong wrestler, and he’s reasonably versatile, having defeated his opponents both by strikes and submissions.
Furthermore, he’s fearless. When he stood across the cage from Diego Sanchez last year, Sanchez had the appearance of a man transfigured–almost dark with determination and intent to harm.
Fitch, on the other hand, was pacing, smiling with the expression of a rabid dog. Intimidation had nothing to do with the fight at hand.
How will he defeat a man who out-strikes strikers, out-wrestles wrestlers, and who submits grapplers? Maybe it’s the mad dog within. Regardless, there is zero margin for error in this fight. Should one of them make a mistake or let his guard down, his opponent will exit the cage as the champion.
Huerta vs. Florian
The winner of Roger "El Matador" Huerta vs. Kenny "Ken-flo" Florian will likely be next in line for a shot at B.J. Penn’s Lightweight Championship Belt. To briefly entertain that notion, the winner of this fight is likely to become the next person destroyed by B.J. Penn, but what is a champion without challengers...right?
That said, to their credit, each competitor has his advantages. Florian, 9-3, is the more technical of the two fighters and would seem to possess a stronger submission game. Huerta is the more experienced, coming into their fight at 20-1-1.
The nickname "El Matador," although it sounds very cool, is really a misnomer, as Huerta lacks the implied grace and panache. What he has in abundance is heart and the willingness to overwhelm his opponent over time. Huerta’s past fights are a study in resilience and determination, perhaps unlike anything Florian has overcome in the past.
The inverse may also be true, though. In actuality, neither fighter has beaten a top contender, and Huerta will have much to overcome in Florian’s striking and submission arsenal.
Should Florian win, he will be looking at the fight of his life with B.J. Penn. Should he lose and find himself again out of title contention, he can take consolation in the fact that he is a very good color commentator.
Huerta has become a crowd favorite, largely due to the electrifying pace of his fights. Should he emerge victorious, his nickname becomes truly problematic. In a subsequent title fight, Penn would become "El Matador," and Huerta would become "El Toro."
But this is not to imply that Penn will not face danger in Huerta. It is said that every dog has his day. Occasionally, in the arena, so does the bull.
Lesnar vs. Herring
From this writer’s humble perspective, this is the most emotionally charged fight of the night, for quite obvious reasons.
Brock Lesnar has been surrounded with such speculation since he entered mixed martial arts. His power and athleticism—and if we’re honest, his physique—raise an almost morbid fascination in him.
Theoretically, shouldn’t a man like him destroy anyone who faces him? On a wrestling mat? Yes. In a barfight? Maybe. In the MMA cage? Clearly not. In February, an almost-down-and-out Frank Mir, after sustaining heavy ground-and-pound damage, lured Brock into a very transparent knee-bar attempt, and promptly submitted the imposing wrestler.
The operative question is this: Does Brock learn and adapt? One would think so, and one would think that Herring would not be the man to catch Brock with a second consecutive knee-bar, at the very least.
Another very important question that comes to mind is, "How does Lesnar feel about pain?"
We at least know that he will tap before someone like Mir hyper-extends his knee. But how will he handle a well-placed punch or kick? Neither Min Soo Kim nor Frank Mir had the opportunity to find that out, but Herring is a different kind of fighter.
Heath Herring was a Pride FC standout a few years back. His speckled career includes 28 wins and 13 losses. That’s more than 40 career fights, and he has fought very strong competition. Heath was never able to work his game against Mirko "Cro-Cop's" cat-like reflexes, Antonio Nogueira’s submissions, or Fedor Emelianenko’s general greatness, but that’s not to say that Herring is without game.
The "Texas Crazy Horse" is a fast-paced, aggressive fighter who loves to brawl. And to his credit, in this fight, he’s a big guy. What Kim and Mir did not do, Heath Herring is likely to do—and that is to hit Brock Lesnar.
MMA, by nature, is comprised by fighters of widely varying disciplines. Many of these disciplines—judo, jiu-jitsu, and Greco-Roman wrestling to name a few—do not involve strikes.
Occasionally, a highly-skilled wrestler or submission practitioner will enter the MMA cage or ring, intending to apply their game, and then discover that they have an aversion to being hit in the face.
Such fighters do not last long in an actual fight. As large and as powerful as he is, one cannot help but to wonder how he will respond to Herring’s fists and legs.
This fight is a classic "athleticism vs. experience" bout. If Lesnar makes the fight go his way, Heath will be on his back for three rounds or until he is pounded out. Heath’s job will be to avoid takedowns and, if taken down, to try to sweep. This does not bode well for Heath.
Herring would do well to study, of all people, Mirko Cro-Cop. In his bouts with Mark Coleman and Kazuyuki Fujita, who are both strong wrestlers, Cro-Cop did well at avoiding takedowns and punishing his opponents when they tried to do so. A well-planted knee or fist to Brock Lesnar’s eye would make him think twice about shooting in for takedowns.
If he can keep the match standing, he has a significant striking advantage and may be able to punish Lesnar unto a win.
If Lesnar wins, he may prove that he is more than a WWE phenomenon, and that he is a legitimate heavyweight contender. If Herring defeats Lesnar, a tall but tangible order for the Texan, he actually has less to win.
Current Heavyweight Champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira has already beaten him three times, so title contention is not an option for Herring, unless Nogueira falls to someone like Mir or Werdum.
Herring recently said that "it’s not [his] first rodeo." Perhaps, but he’s in for a wild ride.
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