Brett Favre to Jets: Trade Analysis

Derek Lofland, NFL director at Fantasy Football Maniaxs

It is good to see that this story has a final resolution. Brett Favre was traded to the New York Jets for a conditional fourth round pick that could become as high as a first round pick should the Jets advance to the Super Bowl.

I plan to post an article soon about the impact Favre had in Green Bay and what this trade means for the franchise. For the purposes of this article, I am just going to look at the ramifications for this season.

New York Jets

This was a very bold move, but a very solid move as well. Chad Pennington is 32 years old. He has been with the Jets since 2000. They have never advanced past the divisional round. His best season was 2002, when in 12 starts he had 3,120 yards passing with 22 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a QB rating of 104.2.

While Favre has never had a 100-plus rating and has never had fewer than 13 interceptions in a regular season, he also has eclipsed 3,120 yards passing 16 times in his career and has equaled or eclipsed 22 touchdowns 11 times in his career. This is a major upgrade at the most important position

If Chad Pennington was 25 and had upside the move wouldn’t make sense. Given that he is 32 and injury prone, it makes all the sense in the world. Kellen Clemens had only five touchdowns, 10 picks, and a 60.9 QB rating last season. He is not ready to start and will benefit from learning behind Brett Favre.

In terms of the skill position players, Thomas Jones should benefit by scoring more rushing touchdowns. People aren’t going to put eight men in the box with Brett Favre at the helm. Coles should benefit from some more downfield throws. Jerricho Cotchery should benefit from better throws as well. Those players become better now that they have a solid QB throwing the ball to them.

While the skill position players are not as talented or plentiful as what Favre had in Green Bay, he still has some nice pieces to work with. It is going to take time for them to get on the same page, but Favre has a great history of adapting to new teammates.

Keith Jackson and Favre, and Andre Rison and Favre clicked as mid-season acquisitions back in 1995 and 1996. It won’t look as good as Favre in Green Bay in 2007, but it should still look pretty solid and improve as the season progresses.

What does this mean for the Jets' 2008 record? I had them finishing 8-8 in my division previews, which were done back in May. That was based on their free agent moves and easier schedule. One of several reasons I held back on them was their quarterback situation.

They have a very tough start to the schedule playing New England in Week 2 and San Diego in Week 3. They need to beat the Dolphins and Cardinals to go into their Week 5 bye at 2-2.

After that, they get a five-week stretch of Cincinnati, Oakland, Kansas City, Buffalo, and St. Louis. That could produce a win streak. They also finish the season with four weeks consisting of San Francisco, Buffalo, Seattle, and Miami. That gives them some winnable games to close the season.

I don’t think the move makes the Jets a Super Bowl contender this year. What I do think it does is it gives them a chance to compete for the final wild card spot. They now have what has been their biggest weakness since Pennington became ineffective.

A 9-7 or a 10-6 record is not unrealistic, and if they can get in the playoffs, it should make Favre want to return for another season. In that case, a strong draft and another busy free agency period may allow the Jets to take a run at the Super Bowl in 2009.

Worst case scenario is that they pick up a lot of flex games and sell tons of jerseys. This was a great move from a marketing standpoint if nothing else.

Green Bay Packers

I think the Packers came out of this pretty well. Favre wanted to report to Green Bay to compete for his starting job. His next preference was to play for the Minnesota Vikings. It sounds like his next preference was to go to Tampa Bay. The New York Jets were a team he wasn’t even talking to a week ago.

The Packers biggest fear was No. 4 ending up in purple. They didn’t want to send him into the NFC. The Jets are perfect, because they don’t end up on the Packer schedule until 2010. One condition of this trade is that the Jets owe the Packers three first-round picks if they trade Favre to Minnesota.

All in all the Packers seem to have gotten everything they wanted in this trade and Favre didn't even get one of his top three choices.

That said, Favre wasn’t just going to go there. It is obvious the Jets did a good job of selling themselves in recent days. Aside from the fact that the Packers sent Favre to the AFC, I think they are the big losers in this deal.

The Jets are probably not going to the Super Bowl this year. They aren’t even a guarantee to make the playoffs. In that case, the Packers got a third or fourth round pick for the face of their franchise and the second most valuable player in the NFL in 2007. That isn’t exactly great compensation.

However, the deal wasn’t all about compensation. They needed to send the circus somewhere else and that alone made the trade the only option. When the dust settles, they now have two rookies and a guy who has thrown 59 career passes at quarterback.

If Rodgers plays like he did against Dallas last year the Packers will have a complete team that is moving toward the future. If he plays like he did in the "Family Night Scrimmage," the Packers will be 6-10 at best.

This has worked out in the sense that Packers fans can't demand that the Packers bench Rodgers and bring Favre out of retirement every time Rodgers has an incomplete pass. However, Packer fans are not going to have the same patience with Rodgers this season knowing that had Packer management handled this different Favre could still be the quarterback. The expectations are going to be a division title and a playoff win. Anything less is going to be unacceptable.

The Packers have a number of issues in the schedule. They play two Monday Night Games, one Sunday Night game, and two afternoon games which go to national audiences. That means the nation is going to see right away how good or bad Aaron Rodgers looks.

They play Minnesota twice, Dallas, Indy, at Seattle, at New Orleans, and at Tennessee in those first 11 games. Really, the only games that should be easy are at Detroit in Week 2 and Atlanta in Week 5. After that, it is playoff teams, division rivals, and teams that disappointed in 2007 with high expectations in 2008.

It is imperative that this team gets off to a fast start. It is also imperative that Aaron Rodgers plays well and stays healthy. If he does, Packers fans won't be as eager to run everyone out of town. If they go under .500 and Rodgers is injured or playing poorly, you are going to have boos from fans and a management team people are going to want run out of Wisconsin. It could get very ugly very quickly.

I still maintain that the Packers are an 8-8 club this season. I thought that when Favre was retired and that Rodgers would only have the pressure of replacing a legend. Now he not only has to do that, but he has to outplay a legend that is with another team.

That is going to be a ton of pressure. Their season was made much more difficult by what transpired the last few weeks. If the Packers get to 8-8, I will be very impressed. I do not see them as a playoff team this year.

As far as my personal feelings go I will always be a Packers fan, but it is going to take me a while to get over how horribly Mark Murphy and Ted Thompson botched this ordeal. I can’t believe they were that eager to run Brett Favre out of town, despite the retirement mistake.

I have never really been a big Jets fan, but that doesn’t mean I can’t start. I plan on buying my No. 4 Jets jersey and Jets cap and rooting for the Jets to make a playoff run in the AFC East. Even better, the Jets wear green, so I won’t have to change color schemes.

The Packers will always be my favorite team, but the Jets are now officially my second favorite team with No. 4 still being my favorite player. I wish him nothing but the best with the Jets.

That’s my take on the trade. What did you think of the trade? Were you excited? Disappointed? Just glad to see a resolution? Let me know your thoughts.