Don't Count Them Out Just Yet!

Yes the Canadiens have had a bad end to the season. 

Yes the Canadiens  have played badly with a healthy team.  Yes the Canadiens have had a goaltender controversy all season long and still have one today. 

Yes both Jaroslav Halak and Carey Price have struggled of late.  Yes the Canadiens are the worst team in the league in 5-on-5 goals. 

Yes Michael Cammalleri hasn'tscored a goal since he returned from injury. 

Yes Scott Gomez and Benoit Pouliot have failed to play to their potential during the stretch run. 

Yes the Canadiens are playing against Alexander Ovechkin and his President's Trophy-winning, 121 point-Washington Capitals team and

Yes the Canadiens qualified for the postseason for no other reason than having 39 wins to the New York Rangers' 38.

But the Canadiens cannot be left for dead just yet!

The Canadiens this year have posted a 2-1-1 record against their first round foe, accumulating 5 of a possible 8 points against them.  The Canadiens have been outscored by the Capitals 15-14 this season head-to-head and they have clearly shown significant signs of being able to compete with the best team of the league. 

Furthermore when the Canadiens have been clicking they have shown signs of being able to beat any team.  A clear example of this is their 3-2 defeat in San Jose on March fourth.  They played hard and ultimately lost due to San Jose scoring two quick goals late in the third period.  They then went on to win six straight games, including one in Los Angeles, on in Anaheim and one in New York against the Rangers.

The Canadiens also have a lot of playof experience in the players they signed last summer; Hal Gill being the most recent Stanley Cup winner last year with Pittsburgh.  Michael Cammalleri, Scott Gomez and the red hot Brian Gionta have all won a Stanley Cup and have significant playoff experience. 

The advantage in offence clearly goes to the Washington Capitals, and the stats say it all; the Capitals have 101 more goals than the Canadiens during the regular season.  They have huge offensive threats like Ovechkin, Backstrom and Semin and had the best powerplay in the league.  The Canadiens did have the second best powerplay in the league, but it has been dry over the last few weeks as the team struggled to win games.  The Canadiens have a small and speedy group of forwards who could tire out the opposition's defence, but can get pushed around very easily and ifany of them will get injured during this series I wouldn't be surprised as every member of the top two lines besides for Tomas Plekanec has missed over 10 games with the club this season.

The Canadiens have the clear advantage over the Washington Capitals in defence, with Andrei Markov always playing at his best and good shutdown defenders like Josh Gorges and Roman Hamrlik.  They also have a worthy offensive defenceman with Marc-Andre Bergeron and have a huge chance in this series because "defence and goaltending win championships".  The Capitals do have the best offensive defenceman in the league in Mike Green, but their shutdown defenceman are lacking.

Advantage also goes to Montreal in goaltending.  Both Jaroslav Halak and carey Price have had good seasons despite a few struggles and comparing that to Jose Theodore and Simeon Varlamov of the Caps, the Habs are looking pretty good.  I believe Price should start the series against Washington because he has posted good numbers against them this season, appearing in all four games, and Halak has been very shaky playing in the three most important games of the season for the Montreal Canadiens.

The Canadiens' special teams has been dry as of late, but we all know how powerful the powerplay can be and how effective the penalty kill can be.  The Canadiens would have to work on their 5-on-5 play during the postseason but as the old saying goes "in the playoffs, anything can happen".  Just look at eigth-seeded Edmonton some years ago when they made it to the Stanley Cup final to lose to Caroline 3-1 in game 7, or sixth-seeded Calgary when they scored a goal to win the Stanley Cup in game 6 of the 2004 Stanley cup final that never counted and ended up losing the Stanley Cup in Tampa Bay two nights later. 

Upsets can and will happen!

I do believe the Washington Capitals will win this series, but not without getting a scare first.  This series will not be wrapped up in 4 or 5 games, in fact the Canadiens will force it to a seventh game thanks to the brilliance of their goaltender and some hard work by the whole team.