Fantasy Pick'Em: 2010 Subway Fresh Fit 600k

We’re now six races into the Sprint Cup Series season as the circuit heads to Phoenix International Raceway for the Subway Fresh Fit 600k. Last year, Mark Martin won this race, his first victory at Phoenix in 16 years, and his first of five over the course of the season.

Am I the only one who’s found the two early-season off weeks incredibly disjointing? I’ve nearly lost track of who’s where in points. It doesn’t help that I’ve had a few busy weeks, too, but let’s spread some of these off-weeks out for when we really need them!

With that in mind, I’m not going to pick Phoenix based on momentum. The choppy early season kills that a little. Denny Hamlin, the winner two weeks ago, just had his knee worked on, so there’s not much we should expect out of him yet anyway. Jimmie Johnson is Jimmie Johnson—momentum doesn’t matter, he’s going to perform no matter what. So let’s just look at the numbers and pick five, shall we?

I’m going to go with Martin this weekend, partially because it seems about time that he kick it into gear. He was fourth in points exiting Las Vegas, only to plummet to 17th in the last three weeks.

You also have to keep in mind that Martin is to Phoenix as Johnson is to Martinsville, albeit without quite as many wins. His average finish of 8.3 in 26 starts is incredible. Unlike a driver with a shorter career like Johnson, with fewer opportunities to make a mistake, Martin has finished every Phoenix race he’s started since 1989.

My dark horse is Joey Logano. Call it a hunch, because it is. He’s finished 21st in both Cup starts at Phoenix. But he’s been solid in the two Nationwide races, and the poise that he’s shown thus far this season proves that he’s a much different driver than he was one year ago.

I wouldn’t call it momentum that he’s got going into the weekend; confidence seems like a better term.

Three more, because I always do:

Johnson has won four of the past five Phoenix races. Yup. I should probably take him overall, but it feels like cheating because it’s so darned obvious.

Jeff Burton is an interesting pick, as the combination of his resurgence this year and a Phoenix record that includes two wins and an average finish of 10.8 in 21 starts suggest good things for the Virginia native. He did work his way up from a 36th place starting spot to finish second in the fall race last year. Dominating wins in 2000 and 2001 show that he knows how to get it done.

Finally, Carl Edwards is way overdue for some good luck. He’s never won in a Cup car at Phoenix, but seven top-10s in 11 starts suggest he can. He had a great shot in the fall of 2007, leading 85 laps, until a blown engine stuck him 42nd in the final rundown. Other than that anomaly, and his debut at the track, he’s been generally pretty consistent.