Setting my bias aside as a Cubs fan, CC Sabathia's debut as a Milwaukee Brewer was not impressive.
The newly crowned Cheesehead scuffled through six innings, allowing five hits, three runs, two earned runs, five walks, and five strikeouts in the 97-pitch victory.
The stat line doesn't spell out a bad start.
What does is the fact that the Brewers gave up two of their best prospects, including top prospect Matt LaPorta, for the burly left hander from Cleveland.
For what the Brewers traded, and what the future may hold for them, Sabathia better get a hold on things.
I say this because there are two things guaranteed.
The first is that Sabathia will be a free agent at the end of this year, and so will longtime Brewers ace Ben Sheets, who, when healthy, like this season, is downright sick.
The second is that the Brewers have new contracts coming to Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy, and Corey Hart. With a small-market team, either Sheets or Sabathia will be odd man out. The bad news is the Cubs have deep pockets, new ownership or not.
The one thing not guaranteed is a Brewers trip to the playoffs. With their two top pitchers becoming free agents, the Brew Crew needs to make the playoffs or risk losing both.
Sheets has never seen the postseason, and Sabathia is unlikely to sign with a team that won't get him back there. If this is the case, the Brewers went all-in this July and came back practically broke, as they would lose two ace pitchers and an eventual stud LaPorta.
Now, you enter in the free-agency market.
Assuming Milwaukee's playoff impotence and small budget prevents them from keeping Sheets and Sabathia, the market for these two is deep.
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CC is a lefty and generated a ton of trade talk as it is, and Sheets is showing what he has this year. He's one of the best when healthy, and that won't be overlooked.
The Yankees will surely be interested, and that will garner a look by the Red Sox (it's just natural for them to duel over a free agent). The Mets are always looking to spend money, and the Indians still have a shot at Sabathia if they rebound this season.
Then there's the division rival Cubs.
Even with Sam Zell in the owner's box, the Cubs are wheeling and dealing, adding Rich Harden just last night. With a sale looming, the Cubs will be able to spend more money on a free agent if it ever goes through, especially if they don't win it all this year.
Jim Hendry and Lou Piniella are committed to winning. Enter potential owner Mark Cuban as a variable, and it's not out of the question that the Cubs could land both star pitchers.
That's the last thing the Brewers want to see, too.
So whether they resign Sabathia or not, the Brewers are to expect more than mediocrity from their new ace. It's not just this season that Milwaukee is fighting for; they gave up a good part of their future, seemingly for one playoff run.
In this writer's eyes, Sabathia's six innings of wild, mediocre, and average pitching does not warrant the trade made by the Crew.
Like the Cubs with Harden, Sabathia is high risk, high reward.
Only last year when he went 19-7 did Sabathia show how much talent he really has. Not to mention that at 290 pounds, he's not exactly going to age like a fine wine. And like fellow southpaw Barry Zito, Sabathia wants a long-term deal.
With the start CC got off to this season, and his most recent performance with Milwaukee, a red flag is starting to rise.
Granted, we have seen the Sabathia of 2007 in his last 14 starts before the trade, but this is a guy who has really put together two great seasons (2001, 2007) and is being asked to carry a team to the playoffs.
He's heralded as one of the best starters in the league, but aside from 2007, Sabathia has yet to show enough consistency to garner such trade value.
The most consistency he has shown is that he is a just above .500 pitcher. His four best seasons in the league include his 19-7 record in 2007, 17-5 in his rookie season of 2001, then it drops down to 15-10 in 2005, and 13-9 in 2003.
I won't even mention how Sabathia tanked against Boston in the ALCS last season.
One thing is for sure in my eyes about this trade. The "mega deal" for Sabathia that has been hyped since mid May will hardly turn out to be worth it for the Cheesehead faithful, while the Indians can sit back and wait for a big prospect in LaPorta to flourish.
The hype was that this trade would turn the Brewers into the best team in the National League, or at least in the Central. But looking at their past and Sabathia's past, Milwaukee will be at home in October, and Sabathia will be on the first train out of Wisconsin.
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about 1 month ago
Set your bias aside? You pretty much downplayed everything about the Brewers and showed nothing but praise for the Cubbies; just like a typical Cubs fan. The Brewers have shown that they can hang with Chicago, even though their payroll is considerably smaller.
With the Brewers continuing to win, they can now land some 'mediocre', as you say, free agents and such. Our executives know what they are doing too, we do have one of the best systems in all of baseball (thank you Doug Melvin, Gord Ash and Jack Zduriencik), and will be atop the NL Central for years to come.
Plus, Mark Attanasio is willing to spend the money because he is also committed to winning.
from about 1 month ago
The Brewers DO have a good shot Adam. But they really needed an arm, and they got one. The team should be much stronger.
However, the Cubs have a strong rotation. They've scored more runs than any other National League team, and they're 3rd in runs allowed. They're a powerhouse offensively, with four players with 15 HRs. They are versatile, with high OBPs and the ability to draw lots of walks.
And this strong team, in first place, with the best run differential in the game, and the best record in the National League just added one of the most dominant pitchers in the last several years in Rich Harden.
I'm a Cubs fan, and I'm able to restrain my enthusiasm, cuz I know the Cubs are 2-4 against the Brewers at home, and haven't been to Millers park yet. But you can probably understand that some writers don't know all the facts, and just like to trash talk.
Look for my articles, with good insight from watching every Cubs game, and some looks at the challenges in the NL Central. I will write a new one in the next few days.
about 1 month ago
Great article Jerry, you really do have a lot of talent. I think a good time to assess both of these trades will be October. Hopefully, Harden will still be healthy and dominating at that point!
from about 1 month ago
Long term this will hurt the Brewers, I still strongly believe that. They can make the playoffs as a wild card but will be leaving Sheets or Sabathia hung out to dry and Sheets will be far easier to resign than Sabathia.
Harden will be fine for the Cubs, he's never had surgery. Yes he has had 6 DL trips in 6 seasons but Dr. James Andrews has thankfully never had to rear his ugly head to Harden's door. Even so, what do the Cubs lose with him?
Two players they really have no place for and pitcher who is still some years from being a star. Plus, we got Harden for next season too. When he's healthy, there's really no pitcher on the planet who can command a game like Harden. 92 Ks in 77 innings this season tells that tale.
about 1 month ago
He did fill the place. So I guess that should be somewhat exciting for Brewers fans. But I think the fact that he is a rental player dims the sense of "family" in this trade. Good analysis, but I still think Sabathia is a great move for them.
from about 1 month ago
I think Sabathia is a decent move for the Brewers, but I don't like the thought of playing for one season and basically emptying out a farm system. What I liked the most about the Cubs move for Harden was that it cost them no prospects at tall. Patterson will be nothing special and Murton will be a good 3-4 outfielder for the A's, opposed to a 5-6 guy for the Cubs. Sean Gallagher was what Billy Beane wanted, someone to step in now.
The Brewers as I said, are all-in, win or lose. It's a huge gamble and I respect that. I will give them props for pulling it off now instead of waiting for Cleveland to up the price closer to the deadline.
about 1 month ago
"Setting my bias aside as a Cubs fan..." When exactly do you plan to do that? ;-)
I was in Miller Park last night. CC was overthrowing, clearly a nervous energy generated the big trade, his first start after being an Indian since age 17, 42,000 fans, etc. He did pretty well considering. 5 walks as a result of all of the above, but other than that, his stuff was electric. Consistently hitting 95-96 on the gun. He's got a presence out there too - his K's were clutch, when he needed them, and he made a nice defensive play too. Given all the hype and the liklihood of a letdown in the face of that hype, it was an absolutely fine debut.
You, and everyone calling into sports radio in Chicago, wants the trade and CC to fail. Fine, root away. Fact is, this was a bold move, and I love it. The "go for it" mentality has been missing for the Brewers for 20+ years. Prospects, even great ones like LaPorta, are not guarantees. They are chips. Chips to be moved for Aces in the race. We did that. That's cool. LaPorta is a slugging, weak fielding guy (we have plenty of those) and represented by Scott Boras. So moving him was not a big issue, especially when we have another guy (Gamel) with similar skills and more upside, IMO.
Anyway its gonna be a great race. The Cards are on the clock - make a move or stick with your over-achievers? Cubs may win the NLC but the Crew is now the fave for the Wild Card.
Congrats to the Cubs on acquiring Mark Prior, er, Rich Harden, by the way.
TM
from about 1 month ago
I do comend the Brewers for having the "go for it" mentality. I just think the risk outweighs the reward in this case.
I do realize LaPorta is not a guarantee. No prospet is (early Josh Hamilton). I just think the risk of losing both of your star pitchers and those prospects is not a risk really worth taking.
And, I honestly did not want the Cubs to have CC either. He's a resigning nightmare. The Cubs and Brewers have two very good farm systems and the Brewers are winning with the kids they have groomed, much like the late 90s Yankees.
And..the Rich Harden deal I'm not excited about completely. I think his injry risk gave the Cubs a discount, sadly what they gave up is a discount, considering that Billy Beane is a prospect guy. Their risk is slightly lower than the Crew's (see above response).
about 1 month ago
You can't put 13-9, 15-10 records as bad. The 2005 team was good, but through most of his early years in Cleveland the teams weren't very good.
He gets amped up once in a while and lets emotions take over. It was one start, I guess seven years of great pitching doesn't matter. He has never had an ERA higher than 4.39 of his rookie year (17-5 record), and has been very dominant over the past two season as he enters his prime years of his career.
from about 1 month ago
I do realize CC played on some bad Cleveland teams, it was in the article but I must have deleted it during an edit.
For the record, I called 13-9 and 15-10 two of his best seasons. But I would hardly call his career seven years of great pitching. Good pitching yes, but not great. If he is entering his prime, it will be a short prime, just like Prince Fielder will have a short prime that forces him into the AL.
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