Week 13 NFL Picks from WhatIfSports.com

Each Tuesday morning, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the preseason preview, is located here .

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.

To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.



Game of the Week: No. 8 Dallas 24 @ No. 14 New York Giants 22

The Dallas Cowboys could be playing for the NFC East. The New York Giants could be playing for their playoff lives. Or they could just find themselves in a bigger cluster with five weeks to go.

With two games and one team—the Philadelphia Eagles—separating the Giants and Cowboys in the NFC East standings, playoff lives and seedings are certainly in the picture this weekend at the Meadowlands, where two teams that have been on very different paths will collide for the second time this season.

The teams first met in Week Two, with the G-men winning a classic division rivalry game 33-31 thanks to a late, game-winning field goal from Lawrence Tynes.

New York's passing attack proved to be the difference, as Eli Manning threw for more than 300 yards and two touchdowns, while Dallas' aerial assault provided just 127 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions from Tony Romo.

Might a passing attack—perhaps the opposite one—take control again this time?

The Cowboys have put together one of the best offenses in the league, but it's built on balance.

Romo’s first game against the Giants was almost certainly his worst, as he threw nearly half his interceptions on the season in that one game.

He should go over the 3,000-yard mark in the second meeting with the Giants, especially if the Cowboys continue to maintain an average of 8.2 yards per pass attempt.

But it's the running game that often opens up the passing game. Dallas has a trio of running backs—Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice—who together help the Cowboys average more than five yards per carry.

But can the Cowboys stop Manning and the Giants this time around? Dallas' defense, especially in stopping the pass, leaves a bit to be desired in terms of yards per game, but it's taking teams a lot of passes to get to that point.

Dallas is giving up just 6.7 yards per attempt but is forcing teams into the passing game by stopping the run just as well. Opponents are averaging just 4.2 yards per carry and are averaging less than two touchdowns per game this season.

Surprisingly, despite numbers like that, the Cowboys are still minus-three in the turnover department and may need a key takeaway or two to stop Manning.

The Giants also look for a balanced offensive attack that hangs right around the top 10 in most statistical categories. Manning, battling through a foot injury, has actually been more inconsistent than his counterpart, though Romo seems to take more heat.

The Giants average 7.6 yards per pass attempt, but Manning failed to find the end zone in a game for the first time this season last Thursday in a loss to the Denver Broncos.

But it’s New York’s running game that has been the true disappointment. Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs were supposed to be a two-headed monster but have been scary in other reasons, as neither of them averages above 4.8 yards per carry for a ground game that averaged just 4.3 yards per touch. Now, with Bradshaw out, the Giants are relying on Danny Ware.

While the Cowboys enjoy a plus-10 margin in terms of touchdowns, the Giants actually have a deficit when it comes to finding the end zone.

Their defense had a hot start to the season but has since slowed, and fewer units have been more scrutinized than New York's secondary, specifically its safeties.

Yet after all that, the Giants actually boast one of the NFL's top passing offenses when it comes to yards per game, and they yield less than seven yards per pass attempt. On the ground, they might even be better as they yield just 4.2 yards per carry.

With a two-point scoring margin in the first meeting this season, it's easy to see why we could be in for another barnburner this time around.

Vegas has set the line at one point with host New York being the favorite, but in 10,001 simulations, it's Romo and the Cowboys who prevail 62.6 percent of the time by less than a field goal. With the total set at 45, the teams make the over better than 53 percent of the time.

In the end, it's actually not either passing attack that makes the difference; it's Dallas' three-headed monster at running back taking care of New York's less than fearsome twosome.

The Cowboys rush for just 24 more yards on average but average nearly a full yard more per carry.

While Dallas hadn't found a consistent receiving threat at the time of the teams’ first meeting, Miles Austin has stepped up to be that guy as the Cowboys look to solidify their playoff chances.

Click on the Boxscore below to the average results from 10,001 simulations of that game, or click on Simulate Game to play the game once and view stats and play-by-play from that simulation.

NFL Week 13
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Detroit Lions	11.6	12	Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bengals	88.4	28	Simulate Game
Oakland Raiders	24.1	15	Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Steelers	75.9	25	Simulate Game
Tennessee Titans	29.2	19	Boxscore
@ Indianapolis Colts	70.8	27	Simulate Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	31.4	18	Boxscore
@ Carolina Panthers	68.6	26	Simulate Game
St. Louis Rams	31.4	15	Boxscore
@ Chicago Bears	68.6	22	Simulate Game
Baltimore Ravens	58.0	23	Boxscore
@ Green Bay Packers	42.0	22	Simulate Game
New York Jets	58.4	20	Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bills	41.6	18	Simulate Game
Houston Texans	58.6	22	Boxscore
@ Jacksonville Jaguars	41.4	21	Simulate Game
Minnesota Vikings	62.3	28	Boxscore
@ Arizona Cardinals	37.7	26	Simulate Game
Dallas Cowboys	62.6	24	Boxscore
@ New York Giants	37.4	22	Simulate Game
San Francisco 49ers	65.3	22	Boxscore
@ Seattle Seahawks	34.7	19	Simulate Game
Philadelphia Eagles	66.5	22	Boxscore
@ Atlanta Falcons	33.5	19	Simulate Game
New England Patriots	72.1	25	Boxscore
@ Miami Dolphins	27.9	19	Simulate Game
Denver Broncos	78.9	22	Boxscore
@ Kansas City Chiefs	21.1	14	Simulate Game
San Diego Chargers	90.7	28	Boxscore
@ Cleveland Browns	9.3	14	Simulate Game
New Orleans Saints	91.4	31	Boxscore
@ Washington Redskins	8.6	17	Simulate Game

Other Notable Games in Week 13

Speaking of playoff implications, how about an inter-conference matchup of teams clinging to wild card hopes?

That's what we get when 6-5 Baltimore travels to 7-4 Green Bay in what looks to be the closest game of the week. The Ravens win 58 percent of the time by just one point.

In the unbeaten watch, perfect New Orleans may have the most lopsided game of the week, taking care of Washington 91.4 percent of the time by two touchdowns.

Indianapolis should remain undefeated as well, ending Tennessee's winning streak 70.8 percent of the time by an average score of 27-19.

Other Notable Names in Week 13

Speaking of the Titans, many eyes have been on Vince Young as he's led their turnaround. But much of that is also due to running back Chris Johnson, who ran for more than 800 yards in the month of November.

The Colts will make it hard for Johnson to start off December in the same fashion, but he averages more than 100 yards in 10,001 simulations against Indy and should find the end zone.

Brett Favre will try to keep his MVP-caliber season going as one-loss Minnesota travels to take on the Arizona Cardinals.

Favre could get to 300 yards again but averages just under 250 while throwing a pair of touchdowns and steering clear of an interception more than half of the time against the Cards.

Eric Schmoldt is a writer for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games . With any comments, questions, or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at [e-mail] . Thanks!