Creature vs. Creature: BYU Will Beat TCU & Bounce Back Into the BCS Discussion

(Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

The winner of this Saturday’s game between the Cougars and the Horned Frogs will have the inside track to win the Mountain West Conference.  The winner will also keep their BCS hopes alive.

TCU would get a major boost in the polls with a convincing win over BYU, which they will need in order to leapfrog Boise State.  BYU would need a win over TCU in order to get back into the BCS hunt.  A win over TCU and a few key losses and BYU has a shot to be the first non-automatic qualifying conference team with one loss playing in a BCS bowl game. 

The loser of the game this Saturday is most likely out of the running for both the BCS and the conference crown. 

For a game this big I have teamed forces with Misthaufen, Bleacher Report Featured Columnist for TCU football.  I will be making the case, in this article, for why BYU will win, and Misthaufen will make the case for TCU victory in his article: "Creature Vs. Creature: TCU Is No Hoax and Will Defeat BYU in Provo. " 

Each of us will provide a voice in the other’s article, providing counter-points to arguments. Here are the reasons why BYU will beat TCU this weekend.

TCU’s Defense Has Yet to Be Tested

The Cougar offense is ranked in the top ten in total offense, seventh, and scoring offense, sixth.  The best offense TCU has faced this season is SMU; who are currently ranked 71st in total offense.

The rest of the teams TCU faced so far are ranked 81st, 83rd ,95th, and 107th nationally in total offense (not including Texas Southern, which isn’t a FBS team). 

The Cougar offense, on the other hand, has been tested by a top defense this season in Oklahoma.  The Sooners are currently ranked eighth in total defense, and they have faced three high-powered offenses this season in BYU, Tulsa, and Texas.  Against Oklahoma, BYU had 357 yards of total offense, with 329 yards coming through the air. 

BYU has seen athletes this season equal to those on TCU’s defense, but TCU has not seen any offensive players like they will face this Saturday in Provo.  BYU’s offense will prove hard to stop for the Horned Frogs.

There are many parallels between this year’s game and last year’s game.  Last season, BYU was the team receiving all of the national attention from the media, and their defense was being praised for shutting down lower level teams. 

This season, TCU’s defense appears statistically sound, but those numbers are deceiving if one just looks at the opponents which they have faced this season.  TCU’s defense is overconfident, and BYU has the weapons to expose their defense.

Counter-Point

Misthaufen: TCU led the nation in defense last year.  In spite of numerous players graduating and many being drafted by the NFL, the Frogs may actually be better this year on defense.

BYU’s offensive numbers are inflated by playing some of the worst defenses in college football.

Tulane is ranked No. 103, giving up over 412 yards per game.

Florida State is ranked No. 107, giving up over 426 yards per game.

Colorado State is ranked No. 89, giving up over 388 yards per game.

Utah State is ranked No. 110, giving up over 437 yards per game.

UNLV is ranked No. 112, giving up over 454 yards per game.

San Diego State is ranked No. 50, giving up 342 yards per game.

It is no wonder that BYU is No. 6 in total offense, having faced only one top-twenty defense, while facing four in the bottom twenty.

One problem in comparing the offenses that TCU has faced is that every single one reflects a game against TCU where the teams were held well under their season average.  By taking the TCU game out of the mix, most of their opponents’ offensive numbers jump way up.

Let’s look at Colorado State.  CSU was average; a very respectable 376 yards per game prior to playing TCU.  Against TCU, the Rams had 182 total yards of offense, with 50 of those yards coming late in the game on one pass against TCU’s third-string defense. 

One game against TCU dropped the Rams from No. 60 in total offense to No. 81.

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