Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The reeling Miami Dolphins (1-4) will attempt to turn their season around against one of the best teams in the NFL when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) on Sunday as home underdogs. The Dolphins are coming off a terrible 30-17 home loss to the Tennessee Titans as 2.5-point favorites last week, failing to cover the spread in their fourth straight game overall.

Point spread: The Steelers opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.2-18.0 Steelers (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

Miami is a mess right now, and Pittsburgh has won five of the past six meetings straight up, according to the Odds Shark NFL Database. That might make an easy win seem too good to be true, but the Dolphins have been playing so poorly lately that it's difficult to back them in this spot.

The Steelers have rebounded nicely from their lone loss of the season, routing the Kansas City Chiefs and New York Jets by a combined score of 74-27 thanks in part to the return of running back Le'Veon Bell. With Bell back in the saddle, they should be able to run the ball well considering Tennessee's DeMarco Murray just rushed for 121 yards on 27 carries at Miami.

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Pittsburgh is not perfect, as the team's 34-3 road loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3 proved. While the Steelers have since bounced back from that debacle, there is still some concern regarding how that even happened. Losing is one thing, but the fact that the Steelers scored only a field goal against a suspect Philadelphia defense makes you wonder if the Dolphins can do the same thing.

There are not really any betting trends that will support Miami in this matchup, so taking the "any given Sunday" approach and the points is the best way to make a case for the underdog covering in this situation.

Smart pick

There are just too many trends favoring Pittsburgh not to back that side here, and that includes ones that support fading the opposition.

The Dolphins may seem like an attractive option because they are home dogs, but this is a lousy team that is 2-6 against the spread in its last eight games when getting more than a touchdown. The Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their previous six when favored by more than a touchdown, and they will win by double digits.

Betting trends

The Dolphins are 1-6 straight up in their last seven games against teams with winning records.

The total has gone under in four of the Dolphins' last five games as underdogs.

The total has gone under in six of the Steelers' last eight games as favorites.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.