Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Arizona Cardinals Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Not too long ago Arizona supposedly owned a significant home-field advantage. However, following last week's loss to New England the Cardinals are now just 1-6 against the spread over their last seven home games. Arizona will try to avoid an 0-2 start to this season when it hosts Tampa Bay on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Cardinals opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 50 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.2-18.2 Cardinals (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

Tampa Bay is 1-0 both straight up and ATS for new head coach Dirk Koetter after winning at Atlanta last week 31-24 as a three-point underdog. The Buccaneers spotted the Falcons a 10-3 first-quarter lead, then went on a 28-3 run, scoring touchdowns on three straight possessions stretching the halves, to take control.

Tampa let Atlanta creep within one score with five minutes to go, but stopped the Falcons on downs on their last-gasp possession to secure the victory and the cash.

Second-year quarterback Jameis Winston led the way on offense, hitting on 23 of 33 throws for 281 yards and four touchdowns, against one interception. Meanwhile, the Bucs defense held Atlanta to just 52 yards rushing and three-for-13 on 3rd-down conversions.

Why the Cardinals can cover the spread

Arizona is looking to bounce back after suffering a 23-21 defeat against a shorthanded New England outfit last week. The Cardinals started slowly, trailing the Patriots 10-0 after one quarter, and 17-7 early in the third, but battled back to take a 21-20 lead on a Carson Palmer-to-Larry Fitzgerald touchdown connection with 10 minutes to go, Fitzgerald's 100th career score.

Arizona then fell back down on a New England field goal, but drove to within field-goal range in the final minute. Unfortunately, Cardinals kicker Chandler Catanzaro pulled a 47-yard attempt wide left, sending his team to a tough season-opening loss.

Palmer finished 24 for 37 passing for 271 yards and two scores, without an interception, while running back David Johnson gained 89 yards on just 16 carries. Arizona may be 0-1 but it's still expected to contend for the NFC title again this year.

Smart pick

Tampa Bay won a divisional game on the road last week, while Arizona lost at home. Now, usually circumstances like that might combine to set up a reversal-of-fortune play on the Cardinals this week. But not here; Winston looks like he's progressing, and the Bucs can run the ball. Meanwhile, there's a chance Arizona is overrated. The smart pick in this spot is Tampa plus the points.

Betting trends

The total has gone under in four of the Cardinals' last five games at home.

The Cardinals are 5-0 SU in their last five games after losing as a favorite.

The Buccaneers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in September.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.