Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Odds, Pick & Point Spread: October 4th 2009
Words cannot really describe how big that win was for Detroit last week against the Redskins. The victory snapped a 19-game losing streak and after the game head coach Jim Schwartz called it like a playoff atmosphere so I think we have a good idea what that entails for this week. While the Lions certainly do not want to start another losing streak, they will be hard-pressed to get up again, especially on the road. The Detroit victory actually helps us here as well. Not only do we get extra line value but the Bears will not be taking this team lightly. That should be emphasized especially after the Lions nearly knocked off the Bears last November at Soldier Field. And that was when the Lions were in the middle of their 19-game losing skid. I thought the Bears might be in for a slight letdown last week in Seattle but they responded pretty well in a tough environment. Heading home means a possible 3-1 record is on tap right before the break so any sort of letdown from that last minute victory over the Seahawks is moot. If not for a last minute drive by the Packers in the opener, Chicago could be undefeated right now but at the same time, the Bears are a couple of plays away from being 0-3 so while confidence is high, there is hardly an aura over overconfidence surrounding them. After looking awful against the Green Bay Packers in the season opener, Jay Cutler has stepped up and been a top quarterback against stingy Pittsburgh and Seattle defenses. The Lions are allowing 75 percent from opposing quarterbacks with 10 touchdowns and a league worst quarterback rating this season and Cutler has gone over 70 percent in his past two games so that sets up well. Detroit plans to do a lot of blitzing this Sunday but that actually may help out cause here. According to Stats Inc., Cutler is a blitz beater, as he is ranked 8th in passer rating throwing the ball in blitz passing situations His patience and poise in the face of a blitz and the ability to still make throws no matter how his body is positioned is significant. The Lions defensive line managed to disrupt the Redskins offense throughout the team’s win Sunday as the Redskins managed to score only 14 points, and much of that had to do with the two fumbles and two picks forced by the Lions defensive line. It is safe to say that the Bears offense, especially the offensive line, is better than that of Washington. Matthew Stafford is starting to settle in at quarterback for the Lions but he is hardly comfortable right now. He has a passer rating of 57.0 which is actually dead last in all of football for qualified quarterbacks. His rating has improved as each game has gone along, topping out with a decent 87.8 last week against the Redskins, but this will be another tough test and it come in his first start of the season that takes place outdoors. The Bears have provided a pretty good pass rush this season, but short passes could easily offset any pass rush they may generate against the Lions. The question is whether Stafford is comfortable yet to read those hot reads and I say no at this stage in his first season. The Vikings did a great job in bottling him up and Chicago is just as capable especially on their home field. There is one big situation that is favoring Chicago this weekend and it goes back to the bye week coming up as mentioned before. Play on favorites of 6.5 to 15 points that have a bye the following week. This simple yet solid situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) since 2002 with the average score differential being +19.7 ppg. 3* Chicago Bears
Matt Fargo had another Winning Sunday in the NFL and he is 7-5 ATS (58.3%) +19.1 Units in the NFL over the last two weeks! He has been taking names with his BIG GAME REPORTS for years and this season is no different! His latest 10* Winner with San Francisco on Sunday moved his 10* plays in the NFL this season to a PERFECT 3-0 ATS! We keep the FLAWLESS run going strong!
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