Realistic Expectations for Toronto Raptors Rookie Jakob Poeltl in 2016-17

By selecting Utah's Jakob Poeltl with the ninth pick in the 2016 NBA draft, the Toronto Raptors pre-emptively addressed their one roster hole that free agency created.

Poeltl was one of the most pro-ready players in the 2016 rookie class, and he has an opportunity to fill the backup center spot left vacant by Bismack Biyombo, who signed with the Orlando Magic. 

Poeltl was an unknown two years ago when he arrived from Austria, but he quickly got on the NBA's radar when he made an immediate impact at Utah. He was considered a possible lottery pick after his freshman season, but he decided to return after Utah head coach Larry Krystkowiak told him he didn't think he was ready. 

"I think he knew what was right for him, and he tackled every single thing that was considered a weakness a year ago and made improvements and really enhanced his opportunity," Krystkowiak told Bleacher Report leading up to the draft. "He just kept approaching his weaknesses: his free-throw shooting, his strength, his moves, his defense not fouling. He stayed in the moment and kept trying to improve all of those things."

The proof was in the numbers. Poeltl won Pac-12 Player of the Year and was a second-team All-American as a sophomore.

	PPG	RPG	FT%	Fouls committed per 40 min.
2014-15	9.1	6.8	44.4	4.1
2015-16	17.2	9.1	68.9	3.0

The Raptors saw Poeltl's dependability in summer league. He didn't blow anyone away with 6.8 points per game on 66.7 percent shooting, 7.0 rebounds and 2.0 blocks, but he played smart basketball on both ends and didn't try to do too much.

Team Fit

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Poeltl can provide some of the same things that made Biyombo so valuable: rim protection, rebounding and the ability to guard multiple positions in a pinch. Poeltl isn't going to offer the same level of shot blocking or rebounding, but he is a superior offensive player. 

The big Austrian has excellent hands and made his living his freshman year by working out of the pick-and-roll with fellow Raptor Delon Wright. He expanded his game as a sophomore to become more of a low-post scorer, but those types of touches will be rare in the NBA.

He already experienced that in summer league. He rarely got the ball in the post. But when he did, including several possessions against the Dallas Mavericks, he made the most of it. 

The organization has used patience with young guys in recent years, and that appears to be the plan with Poeltl. 

“I see them being a big part of what we do," Raptors head coach Dwane Casey told the Toronto Sun's Ryan Wolstat, speaking of Poeltl and fellow rookie Pascal Siakam. "This time last year I don’t think we could sit here and say Norm [Powell] is going to help us win a series in the playoffs."

Casey continued:

"

I'm projecting those guys to grow in the year with us, maybe down with the 905 [Toronto's NBA Development League team], back like our guys did this year. It's going to be huge for them to be able to play games, but I project that they at some point [help the Raptors]. I don’t know when that's going to be, but stuff happens in our league; you can go ask [Biyombo]. He took advantage of an opportunity.

"

According to TSN Toronto beat writer Josh Lewenberg, the Raptors plan to give Lucas Nogueira the first shot at winning the backup center job:

However, the maturity of Poeltl's game makes it tough to believe he'll get beat out by Nogueira, who has played sparingly through two seasons in Toronto.

Concerns

Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

It's hard to find many holes in Poeltl's game because he was well-coached at Utah and doesn't try to do more than he's capable of. Many players chase numbers in summer league, but it was refreshing to watch Poeltl try to blend in with the experienced roster the Raptors sent to Las Vegas.

Casey will be able to trust Poeltl to be in the right spots and not force the issue. Some teams may have worried whether he'd be able to score at the professional level, but he's the type of prospect who should be willing to play a much different role than in college.

The biggest concern is whether anyone can give the Raptors what Biyombo did. His energy was infectious, and his shot blocking was intimidating. Poeltl is typically more of a deterrent at the basket, choosing to wall up instead of lunging for blocks and taking himself out of the play if he swings and misses. At 7'0" with a 7'2 ¾" wingspan, he's effective as a rim protector without piling up a ton of blocks. 

Like Biyombo, Poeltl has the foot quickness to switch a ball screen and defend perimeter players in space, but it could take time getting used to handling NBA athletes. The physicality of the game will also be an adjustment, but in summer league Poeltl showed he can handle himself. 

Expectations

The freshman version of Poeltl will probably resemble how he plays in the NBA. While he's capable of scoring from the post with his back to the basket, he's not gifted enough to warrant a ton of touches. He will get most of his baskets out of the pick-and-roll, is an effective screener, is quicker than you'd think and catches just about everything thrown his way.

He has a chance to eventually be a Mason Plumlee type as a roller. Plumlee has even evolved into a playmaker in those situations for the Portland Trail Blazers. The former Duke standout had never averaged more than 1.0 assist per game in his career, but then Plumlee averaged a career-best 2.8 assists per game this past season. 

Poeltl has a ways to go as a passer, but he has an advanced understanding of how to play the game the right way and the quickness to be used in similar fashion. 

"He doesn't take bad shots or put himself in bad position," Krystkowiak told B/R during the season. "Again, he's an ultra-, ultragreat teammate where it probably bothers him more than anybody on our team when he or somebody else takes a bad shot. He's the kind of kid that's not going to put himself at risk, take a bad shot and maybe hurt the team, so he's always thinking high-percentage opportunities whenever he can."

Poeltl isn't likely to ever be an All-Star or put up huge numbers, but he's going to be a reliable center for a long time and has a chance to eventually be a starter. His selection was a smart one for a win-now franchise, and Toronto fans will learn to appreciate the subtleties of his game.

Complete Per-Game Stat Predictions

• Minutes: 19.0
• Points: 4.1
• Rebounds: 5.0
• Assists: 0.4
• Field-goal percentage: 59.2
• Blocks: 1.0

C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.