NFL Survivor Picks Week Four: Go With the Giants, Bears, and Colts

Mike MacGregorContributor IOctober 2, 2009

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - SEPTEMBER 13:  Eli Manning #10 of the New York Giants hands the ball to teammate Brandon Jacobs #27 against the Washington Redskins on September 13, 2009 at Giants Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.  (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Nice week last week with the survivor picks going 3-for-3 (Ravens, Eagles, Packers), and each team won going away by 31, 20 and 19 points respectively. Even my next two picks in the poll (Giants, Saints), came through in blowout wins.

The thing with survivor picks though is when they work as well as that it seems like the picks were obvious. When they don't work, you look like some clueless hack. There is little glory in the survivor pick prediction game, but that is OK. Lets see if I can keep the roll of obvious picks going this week.

New York Giants over Kansas City Chiefs - The Giants didn't make my top three last week because they were banged up following the Dallas game, having lost S Kenny Phillips for the season and DE Justin Tuck was questionable to play. Plus, they were playing on the road.

It didn't matter, as they romped the Bucs to the tune of 24-0.

The offense ran the ball 49 times for 226 yards, while the defense made the Bucs offense look absolutely putrid: less than 100 yards, with just five first downs. QB Byron Leftwich lost his starting job in the effort. 

While I think the Chiefs are better than the Bucs overall, the situations are eerily similar. The Chiefs will not be able to run against the Giants, and the Chiefs will have a tough time stopping the Giants running game.

A minor concern is that Giants RB Ahmad Bradshaw is not practicing this week. Even with backup carries, he is accounting for half of the Giants rushing yards this season. At this point, however, he is expected to play.

Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe missed the game last week and remains uncertain to play this week, although he started practicing Thursday. Back-to-back road games for the Giants has me slightly skittish, but as long as they go about their business they should earn a win here.

Chicago Bears over Detroit Lions - While I'm happy for Detroit and most of all, their fans, to finally get that 19-game gorilla off their back, I'm not about to believe the Lions have a new swagger to be able to walk into Soldier Field to defeat the Bears.

Let's call a spade a spade.

The Redskins were sleepwalking through that game. Are they trying to get Head Coach Jim Zorn fired? Conspiracy theory says, "yes." Regardless, when they finally woke up after halftime the Lions let Jason Campbell rack up 340 yards passing. The Lions defense is a shambles.

While the Bears are not running away in games, needing the late fourth quarter to win each of their last two, those were against a much better Steelers team and away in Seattle (who I am not high on, but still, also better than Detroit).

QB Jay Cutler is really spreading the ball around to his receivers. If the Lions couldn't cover speedy WR Santana Moss who was locked in on by his quarterback, how do they cover equally speedy receivers Devin Hester and rookie Johnny Knox, plus a little Earl Bennett and tight end Greg Olsen thrown in for kicks?

This could be a big game for Cutler in front of the home fans. Lions offense versus Bears defense? Forget about it. Lions RB Kevin Smith is going to be a game-time decision with a shoulder injury and more than likely, he doesn't play based on reports so far.

Smith represents a big chunk of their offense, and his backups are sub-par. QB Matthew Stafford is sure to continue his erratic ways, which unlike the Redskins, the Bears opportunistic defense will be all over creating turnovers and quite possibly scoring themselves. A new losing streak starts for the Lions.

Indianapolis Colts over Seattle Seahawks - Since people consider Seattle a division contender this one might come as a surprise, but the fact is, look at the division they play in.

Being a division contender in the NFC West is a far cry from being competitive in the AFC South, and the Colts are more than competitive. This offense is rolling right now dropping 27 points on the Dolphins in less than 15 minutes of possession, and then 31 points last week over the Cardinals.

The Colts defense is still their Achilles' heel. The Cardinals hurt themselves more than the Colts stopped them last week, turning the ball over twice inside the Colts 10-yard line. Plus, they are down DE Dwight Freeney.

Still, they have more than enough to contain the Seneca Wallace led Seahawks. That's right, QB Matt Hasselbeck is not expected back this week. While the Seahawks have some decent players on offense, notably WR Nate Burleson and on-again, off-again RB Julius Jones (good Week One, terrible Week Two, good Week Three), they will have a tough time topping 20 points in this game, while we can bank on the Colts for, what do you think, 30+?

The Colts do face the Rams after their Week Six bye, but otherwise face some tougher teams, so you should consider them this week for your survivor pick.