Super Bowl 2016: Final Panthers vs. Broncos MVP, Stat, Prop Predictions

After two weeks of hype, the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos are finally set to clash in Super Bowl 50 at Levi's Stadium to determine the NFL's champion. 

The Panthers have already exceeded even the most optimistic predictions, entering the Big Game with a 17-1 record after two postseason wins. They can complete one of the best individual seasons in NFL history with a victory. 

The Broncos' journey to the Super Bowl hasn't followed a straight path, with defense carrying a heavy load because of Peyton Manning's poor early-season performance, injury and return in Week 17. One more win for the franchise will put a cherry on top of the sundae it started making when Manning came to Denver nearly four years ago. 

Here is what to expect from the NFL's biggest game of the year. 

Prop Predictions

Wager	Odds	Prediction
1st Scoring Play	Touchdown (-145); Field Goal or Safety (+115)	Touchdown
Coin Toss	Heads (-105); Tails (-105)	Heads
Number of Times "Dab" or "Dabbing" is Said By Announcers on Broadcast	Over 2 (Even); Under 2 (-140)	Over
Number of Times Archie Manning Is Shown on TV During Broadcast	Over 1.5 (Even); Under (-14)	Over

The Panthers and Broncos are so good on defense that predicting a touchdown as the first source of points could be going out on a limb. However, there's evidence otherwise.

The Panthers have allowed 19.5 points in their two playoff games, roughly in line with their 19.3 mark during the regular season, yet they have given up five touchdowns to Seattle and Arizona in the postseason. 

The Broncos finished fourth during the regular season, allowing 18.5 points per game. They have been even better in the postseason, giving up a total of 34 points against Pittsburgh and New England, but both of those teams got their first points with touchdowns. 

While not a wholly representative sample size of how well the Panthers and Broncos have performed this season, it is enough of a trend to think it will continue Sunday evening. 

If you know anything about coins, the outcome is 50-50 for heads or tails. The Super Bowl is proof positive of that, with OddsShark.com noting tails carries a 25-24 edge from the previous 49 games. 

Tails has won each of the last two years, but heads came up in the five years before that, so it's due to get attention once again and prove the theory that a coin toss is a true 50-50 proposition by evening the score at 25. 

The number of times "dab" or "dabbing" is said and how many times Archie Manning is shown on the broadcast deserve to be bunched together because they are so obviously set to hit the over that it's almost unfair. 

Starting with the dab, Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has made that his second signature gesture after the Superman move. He's going to be doing that move after every big play, so Jim Nantz and Phil Simms will be forced into talking about it even if they have no idea what it is.

Plus, the daughter of Panthers head coach Ron Rivera, Courtney Rivera, posted a picture on Twitter of the entire roster dabbing during their team photo:

That can easily become a brief talking point when Newton does his first dab, so take the over and don't look back. 

The Manning family is going to take center stage Sunday, regardless of the final score, because so much of the discussion will be around Peyton and his possible retirement. 

Assuming the game stays close in the fourth quarter and Manning has an opportunity to lead the Broncos on a game-winning drive, there will be at least one camera shot of Archie and the family. It won't take anything for the Manning family patriarch to appear on TV more than 1.5 times. 

Super Bowl 50 MVP

The first thing to say about the MVP is it has to come from the winning team. Chuck Howley did win the honor as part of the Dallas Cowboys team that lost to the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl V, but he's the exception to the rule.

The Panthers have been my choice to win the game since this matchup was set 14 days ago, which gives me 46 players to choose from. 

However, a breakdown of previous Super Bowl MVPs will help narrow things down even further so it's not an overwhelming task:

Position	# of Winners	Most Recent Winner
Quarterback	27	Tom Brady, New England Patriots (Super Bowl 49)
Running Back	7	Terrell Davis, Denver Broncos (Super Bowl 32)
Wide Receiver	6	Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers (Super Bowl 43)
Linebacker	3	Malcolm Smith, Seattle Seahawks (Super Bowl 48)
Defensive End	2	Richard Dent, Chicago Bears (Super Bowl 20)
Safety	2	Dexter Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Super Bowl 37)
Cornerback	1	Larry Brown, Dallas Cowboys (Super Bowl 30)
Defensive Tackle	1	Randy White, Dallas Cowboys (Super Bowl 12)*
Kick Returner/Punt Returner	1	Desmond Howard, Green Bay Packers (Super Bowl 31)

*White shared MVP honors with Cowboys defensive end Harvey Martin.

Just as the regular-season MVP award has been dominated by quarterbacks since 2007, save for Adrian Peterson in 2012, the position towers over all others at the Super Bowl. 

Santonio Holmes is the last non-quarterback to play an offensive position to be named Super Bowl MVP, but he needed to make one of the greatest touchdown catches in the game's history to give Pittsburgh a victory over Arizona and finish with 131 receiving yards. 

The Panthers do have stars such as Greg Olsen and Luke Kuechly who are capable of impacting the game and garnering support for the award, but this is Newton's to lose. He's been the biggest story in the NFL all year, posting historic numbers with his passing and running skills, per ESPN Stats & Info:

Newton dazzled in the NFC Championship Game against Arizona, throwing for 335 yards, running for 47 yards and recording four total touchdowns (two rushing). He's become the most unstoppable force in the NFL today. 

The Broncos' pass rush is in the unenviable position of trying to slow down Newton. It may be fashionable to note how well their defensive line has performed in the postseason, sacking Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady a combined seven times. 

However, the Panthers boast the NFL's second-best offensive line by Pro Football Focus metrics, so Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware aren't going to cause as many problems in the backfield. Newton is also superior to Brady and Roethlisberger in mobility, compounding Denver's dilemma. 

If the Broncos aren't able to bring Newton down, the question becomes, how high do his stats climb during the game?

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Against a similarly stout Seattle defense three weeks ago, Newton only had 164 total yards (161 passing) and one touchdown. But he didn't need to be great because Jonathan Stewart ran for 106 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries and Kuechly had a pick-six against Russell Wilson. 

If we suppose that game is an outlier because it was so skewed for the Panthers in the first half and Seahawks in the second half, Newton's last five games around that one provide a better indication of what he will do. 

Going back to Dec. 6 against New Orleans, excluding the Seahawks' game, Newton's average stat line is 284 passing yards, nearly 43 rushing yards and nearly four total touchdowns. 

Even though the Broncos secondary did allow the fewest passing yards during the regular season, Roethlisberger did get them for 339 yards in the divisional round.

Big Ben didn't have any touchdown passes, although he was missing his favorite target (Antonio Brown) and the team was on its third-string running back. Newton has his full assortment of weapons, so there's no reason to think he won't approach his average numbers down the stretch. 

Prediction: Panthers 27, Broncos 17