NASCAR Fantasy 2015: Quicken Loans 500(k) Top Drivers and Sleeper Picks
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series travels to Avondale, Arizona, this week for the Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500(k). The race can be seen this Sunday at 2:10 p.m. ET on NBCSN.
The best way to assemble a dominant DraftKings lineup is to select the perfect combination of top drivers and sleeper picks. A sleeper pick is any driver priced under $8,000 who has a legitimate chance of finishing in the top 10. Fantasy teams who can find the perfect sleeper picks to combine with the top drivers will be taking home the cash in their contest.
The win by Jimmie Johnson at Texas means there are three spots available for the Championship Round at Miami-Homestead Speedway (Jeff Gordon clinched with his win at Martinsville).
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The seven drivers racing for the last spot will be the best choices for your DraftKings contest this week. Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano and Kurt most likely need to win the race to advance, while Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr. and Carl Edwards need to finish up front to advance to the championship race.
| Pos. | Driver | Points |
| 1 | Jeff Gordon | * Clinched |
| 2 | Kyle Busch | 4080 |
| 3 | Kevin Harvick | 4079 |
| 4 | Martin Truex Jr. | 4076 |
| 5 | Carl Edwards | 4069 |
| 6 | Brad Keselowski | 4057 |
| 7 | Kurt Busch | 4048 |
| 8 | Joey Logano | 4013 |
The Sprint Cup Series last competed at Phoenix last March. The race was dominated by Kevin Harvick. He won the pole and led 224 of the 312 laps on his way to Victory Lane. The win was Harvick’s seventh consecutive top-two finish and his second win of the season. He will be the driver to beat once again this week.
Here are the top 10 drivers with the highest point totals from the last race at Phoenix from ifantasyrace.com.
| Pos. | Driver | Points |
| 1 | Kevin Harvick | 158.5 |
| 2 | Brad Keselowski | 74.5 |
| 3 | Kurt Busch | 55.5 |
| 4 | Kasey Kahne | 49.5 |
| 5 | Martin Truex Jr. | 48.5 |
| 6 | Ryan Newman | 46.5 |
| 7 | Joey Logano | 46.25 |
| 8 | Jamie McMurray | 45.75 |
| 9 | Jimmie Johnson | 42.5 |
| 10 | Jeff Gordon | 41.5 |
The strategy for the race at Phoenix is to try and find the drivers who will score bonus points for leading laps. There are 312 laps and 78 bonus points for leading laps available in DraftKings contests. It will be hard to win your contest without having the driver who leads the most laps in your lineup.
Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski have led 767 laps in the last three races at the track. Fantasy teams should also consider the winner of the pole position for their contest. The driver who started first has led 519 of the 834 laps the last two weeks. I do not see that trend changing at Phoenix.
Top Drivers
Kevin Harvick, Stewart-Haas Racing, Chevy ($11,600)
It is hard to find a driver who dominates a track the same as how Harvick dominates at Phoenix. He has a series-best average finish position, series-best driver rating, led 1,202 laps and won five of the last six races at the track. Harvick is clearly the driver to beat Sunday.
The only thing that may stop Harvick this week is problems with his car. Last week, he was a victim of a flat tire and a broken shifter. The No. 4 team has consistently had slower pit stops than many of the drivers Harvick is competing against. The team knows how to overcome adversity, so I would still consider Harvick the top pick for your DraftKings contest.
Harvick is once again the highest-priced driver for DraftKings contests. Although he is listed at $11,600, Harvick is still a bargain because of the way he dominates the races at Phoenix. I was actually surprised that his price did not reach $12,000 this week. Harvick should be on every team for the race Sunday.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 7 | 10 | 14 | 16.6 | 10.9 |
Last year, Harvick had to win at Phoenix to advance in the Chase. He qualified third and led 264 of the 312 laps on his way to Victory Lane. He does not need to win Sunday but does need a good finish if he wants to compete for the championship in Miami.
Brad Keselowski, Team Penske Racing, Ford ($10,800)
If Harvick does not find his way to Victory Lane for the fifth consecutive time at Phoenix, it will most likely be Keselowski taking the checkered flag. Keselowski has the second-best average finish position and the second-best driver rating in the last five races at the track. He is in a must-win situation this week, and fans shouldn't bet against him getting the job done.
Keselowski had a good race in March at Phoenix. He qualified sixth and led 52 laps on his way to a sixth-place finish. Keselowski spent most of the day running in the top five. He should easily finish in the top five this week.
DraftKings must agree that Keselowski is a great pick for your contest. He is the second highest-priced driver, and I would not be surprised to see Keselowski score the most points in DraftKings contests this Sunday.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 14.4 | 13.9 |
Keselowski is starting to heat up at the right time of the season. He had the car to beat at Texas but was overpowered by Jimmie Johnson at the end of the race. Keselowski has led more laps than any other driver in the last six races and has finished four of the last five races inside the top 10. Keselowski is a safe pick for your team at Phoenix.
Joey Logano, Team Penske Racing, Ford ($10,600)
Logano finds himself in a win or go home situation this week. He is too far back in the standings to make it to the Championship Round on points. The good news is the No. 22 team has what it takes to get to Victory Lane at Phoenix.
Logano had one of the cars to beat in the March race at Phoenix. He qualified on the front row and took an early lead. He led 35 laps before he began to fall back in the field. Logano spent most of the day running inside the top five. He should easily run in the top five Sunday.
Logano is once again one of the highest-priced drivers in DraftKings contests. The No. 22 car will have the speed to race up front and should lead some laps at Phoenix. Fantasy players should feel confident that an investment in Logano will result in a top-five finish this week.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 0 | 2 | 7 | 13.2 | 14.5 |
It is amazing how quickly a driver’s luck changes in NASCAR. Logano had three consecutive wins and was the hottest driver in the sport entering the race at Martinsville. Now Logano enters the last race of the Eliminator Round in a must-win situation. The problems the No. 22 team has had are not of its own fault. Don't be surprised to see Logano get back to dominating races like he did in October.
Kurt Busch, Stewart-Haas Racing, Chevy ($9,300)
The race in March at Phoenix was the first race back from suspension for Busch. Many people thought it would take him some time to get used to the new car, but he quickly made his way to the front at Phoenix.
Busch was not fast in practice at Phoenix, but once the No. 41 team put Kevin Harvick’s setup in the car, he really began to turn fast laps. Busch qualified eighth and finished fifth. He ran in second place behind Harvick for most of the race but had to stop for gas at the end. Busch will be a serious threat to win Sunday.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 1 | 6 | 14 | 12.9 | 13.9 |
Busch has qualified in the top 10 in four consecutive races at Phoenix. He has also finished three of those races inside the top seven. The only poor race Busch had was in the spring race last year. He was running up front when he had engine failure. Busch will be one of the drivers to watch this week.
Sleepers
Ryan Newman, Richard Childress Racing, Chevy ($7,300)
Newman is one of the most underrated drivers in NASCAR. It may be because he does not drive for one of the top teams or because he has never won a championship. Whatever the reason, fantasy players must realize he is one of the most dependable drivers for your contest. Newman consistently makes his way to the front at the end of the race.
Phoenix is one of the best tracks for Newman. He qualified fifth and finished third in the March race at the track. It was the ninth time he finished in the top five in the desert. Newman is a great sleeper pick for your contest this week.
Newman is always the most underpriced driver in DraftKings contests. He finishes many of the races in the top 10 but is rarely priced over $8,000. This is good news for fantasy players, and they need to take advantage of his bargain price.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 12.7 | 17.3 |
Newman has finished six of the eight Chase races inside the top 20. He would have finished up front last week at Texas if he did not have a tire go down at the end of the race. Newman is one of the safest picks for your DraftKings contest this week.
Kasey Kahne, Hendrick Motorsports, Chevy ($7,900)
Kahne is the perfect sleeper pick this week. He has the sixth-best average finish position and the 10th-best driver rating in the last five races at Phoenix. Kahne has won in the desert before, so he knows his way to Victory Lane. He probably will not be owned in many DraftKings lineups, so he is the perfect driver to gain points on your competition.
Kahne performed very well in the last race at Phoenix. He qualified ninth and finished fourth. It was his best finish of the season. Kahne spent most of the day running in the top 10. I expect a similar race from the No. 5 team Sunday.
Kahne is very affordable at $7,900. There are 13 drivers with a higher price than Kahne this week. I think he will outperform half of those drivers. Kahne is well worth the money for your contest.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 1 | 5 | 8 | 11.7 | 17.3 |
It has been a tough season for Kahne in 2015. The good news is that he is running better now than he did in the first half of the season. Kahne has finished in the top five in half of the Chase races this season. Two of his top-five finishes came on the other two short tracks (Dover and Martinsville). Expect another top-10 finish from Kahne at Phoenix.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Roush Fenway Racing, Ford ($6,100)
Stenhouse Jr. has not had a lot of success at many of the tracks in the Sprint Cup Series, but he is good at Phoenix. Stenhouse has finished every race he has started in the desert in the top 18. He is the perfect sleeper pick for the race at Phoenix.
It was a quiet but successful day for Stenhouse in the March race at Phoenix. He qualified 14th and finished 12th. Stenhouse spent most of the day running in the top 20, but he made his way inside the top 15 at the end of the race. I expect the same type of results from the No. 17 team this week.
Stenhouse would be a great driver to round out your lineup. He has the ability to finish in the top 15, but DraftKings has him priced at only $6,100. There are 25 drivers with a higher price than Stenhouse this week. I think he will easily score more points than 10 of them. Stenhouse should be selected for every contest Sunday.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.4 | 15.0 |
Roush Fenway Racing has not been able to compete on the larger tracks because the team has lacked horsepower. The small oval track at Phoenix does not require much horsepower, so the team will be able to have a top-20 finish. Greg Biffle is another driver from Roush Fenway Racing who could have a good race Sunday.
Aric Almirola, Richard Petty Motorsports, Ford ($6,300)
This would be a great race to select Almirola for your DraftKings contest. He has the eighth-best average finish position on the short tracks this season. He ran well in both of the short-track races in the Chase, so expect him to run in the top 10 again this week.
Almirola is not a driver who is going to win the race Sunday, but he consistently finishes high enough to score fantasy players enough points to be competitive in their contests. Almirola has finished seven consecutive races at Phoenix inside the top 20. He should easily finish inside the top 20 again Sunday.
By selecting Almirola for only $6,300, fantasy teams will have the opportunity to select some of the higher-priced drivers for their contests. He would be a great fourth driver for your lineup to pair with Kevin Harvick at Phoenix.
| Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.1 | 18.5 |
Almirola has been running well since the Chase began. The No. 43 team has finished five of the eight races in the top 20. It is important to limit your risk when setting your DraftKings lineup. Almirola is a safe driver for your contest this week.
DraftKings Picks for Phoenix
Driver 1: Kevin Harvick ($11,600)
Driver 2: Kurt Busch ($9,300)
Driver 3: Jeff Gordon ($8,700)
Driver 4: Ryan Newman ($7,300)
Driver 5: Aric Almirola ($6,300)
Driver 6: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,100)
Advanced stats courtesy Racing-Reference.Info and Yahoo Racing Stats.
DraftKings has a NASCAR Sling Shot $100K contest running right now. Use this knowledge to help you win some of that cash. Play now for free at DraftKings.com.
If you need any further advice with your team, look for me on Twitter @MrFantasyNASCAR. If you like Fantasy NASCAR, LIKE my Fantasy NASCAR Tips Page on Facebook.
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