My Super-Serious Predictions for 2009-2010

(Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)

Assuming my audience is familiar with Bayesian probability, I'm going to grade the probability of certain events occurring this season. Here's a rundown of what the numbers mean:

.0 =Impossible

.1-.49 =Unlikely

.5 =Just as likely as unlikely

.51-.99 =Likely

1 =Guaranteed

So basically you have a scale from 0 to 1, and the closer you get to 1 the more certain you are. You know that my predictions are right because it uses this sophisticated method of gradation.

Kevin Durant Becomes the Best Offensive Player in the League

Probability: .4

Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony and Joe Johnson are all players you'd want to have the ball at the end of the game. But Kevin Durant is going to become the best offensive weapon in a matter of time, and whether it is this year or the year after is the only true debate. I think it's unlikely this year because the team is still trying to get an offensive identity, so depending how quickly Westbrook learns that he is the most physically talented 1-2 in the league and is able to spread the floor for Durant, we could see him dominate from game one. Bryant is beginning to fade into the Laker system, which is not a bad thing, Carmelo Anthony is not nearly as physically gifted as Durant, and Joe Johnson has never been and never take charge over the Hawk's offense. Durant has speed, an outstanding shot, a very long body and instincts for getting to the basket. He is already hitting his jumper at an alarming level of reliability (something Lebron will never do) and is a mismatch for any small forward in the West. I have my doubts that this will be the year that he overtakes Carmelo/Bryant/Johnson, but it would be unsurprising if he did.

Chuck Hayes Becomes the Most Interesting Offensive Player in the League

Probability: .75

Hayes is the only player, besides Antoine Walker, that makes me sit up when he somehow gets the ball on the offensive side of the court. Is he going to bounce the ball off his foot? Does he know which hoop he is supposed to shoot at? Will he get fouled so we can watch his terrible free throw shooting mechanics? As an aside, have you ever tried to make a free throw with Chuck in NBA 2K9? I dare you. It's like he's dry-heaving. Maybe he has Tracy McGrady's knee ligaments in his arms. Here is a video of Chuck accidentally making a free throw: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWPsSFfaUMU

Like I said, Antoine Walker is really the only player that could ever contend with Hayes. According to my sources, he takes an average of 9 SPM (shots per minute) and his FG% is somewhere between circling the drain and event horizon. I don't even know if he's playing anymore. I hope so. I don't want to watch a league that doesn't have his fatty arms jiggling as he somehow gets them above his head to launch a ball into the fifth row.

Lebron James Becomes the Kanye West of the NBA

Probability: .5

I thought about comparing Lebron to Megan Fox instead since they are both talented on the stage but stupid when they talk off-the-record, Transformers 2 reminds me of the Cavaliers in the playoffs and they both have ridiculous tatoos, but in the end Lebron/Kanye have such a similar God-complex that I simply couldn't resist. Both have an incredible amount of talent, incredible egos (his second child has the middle name "Maximus"), and every award available (except the Championship). What does Kanye West do when put in a potentially embarrassing situation by South Park? He writes an unintentionally hilarious blog post explaining his personality type. What does Lebron James do when he is dunked on by a rookie? Tries to stronghand Nike into suppressing the tape of the incident. As if you needed further proof, he has "Witness" and "Chosen 1" tatooed on his body. Does anyone remember the pic of Kanye on the cover of Rolling Stone with a crown of thorns? I'm just saying. If Lebron wants to be a true NBA legend, he better clean up his act. That's something that will not happen if he moves to New York or Brooklyn. If he re-signs with the Cavs then I think there is still hope.

The Mavericks Remain One of the NBA's Elite

Probability: .33

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