My Super-Serious Predictions for 2009-2010

Assuming my audience is familiar with Bayesian probability, I'm going to grade the probability of certain events occurring this season. Here's a rundown of what the numbers mean:

.0 =Impossible

.1-.49 =Unlikely

.5 =Just as likely as unlikely

.51-.99 =Likely

1 =Guaranteed

So basically you have a scale from 0 to 1, and the closer you get to 1 the more certain you are. You know that my predictions are right because it uses this sophisticated method of gradation.

Kevin Durant Becomes the Best Offensive Player in the League

Probability: .4

Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony and Joe Johnson are all players you'd want to have the ball at the end of the game. But Kevin Durant is going to become the best offensive weapon in a matter of time, and whether it is this year or the year after is the only true debate. I think it's unlikely this year because the team is still trying to get an offensive identity, so depending how quickly Westbrook learns that he is the most physically talented 1-2 in the league and is able to spread the floor for Durant, we could see him dominate from game one. Bryant is beginning to fade into the Laker system, which is not a bad thing, Carmelo Anthony is not nearly as physically gifted as Durant, and Joe Johnson has never been and never take charge over the Hawk's offense. Durant has speed, an outstanding shot, a very long body and instincts for getting to the basket. He is already hitting his jumper at an alarming level of reliability (something Lebron will never do) and is a mismatch for any small forward in the West. I have my doubts that this will be the year that he overtakes Carmelo/Bryant/Johnson, but it would be unsurprising if he did.

Chuck Hayes Becomes the Most Interesting Offensive Player in the League

Probability: .75

Hayes is the only player, besides Antoine Walker, that makes me sit up when he somehow gets the ball on the offensive side of the court. Is he going to bounce the ball off his foot? Does he know which hoop he is supposed to shoot at? Will he get fouled so we can watch his terrible free throw shooting mechanics? As an aside, have you ever tried to make a free throw with Chuck in NBA 2K9? I dare you. It's like he's dry-heaving. Maybe he has Tracy McGrady's knee ligaments in his arms. Here is a video of Chuck accidentally making a free throw: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWPsSFfaUMU

Like I said, Antoine Walker is really the only player that could ever contend with Hayes. According to my sources, he takes an average of 9 SPM (shots per minute) and his FG% is somewhere between circling the drain and event horizon. I don't even know if he's playing anymore. I hope so. I don't want to watch a league that doesn't have his fatty arms jiggling as he somehow gets them above his head to launch a ball into the fifth row.

Lebron James Becomes the Kanye West of the NBA

Probability: .5

I thought about comparing Lebron to Megan Fox instead since they are both talented on the stage but stupid when they talk off-the-record, Transformers 2 reminds me of the Cavaliers in the playoffs and they both have ridiculous tatoos, but in the end Lebron/Kanye have such a similar God-complex that I simply couldn't resist. Both have an incredible amount of talent, incredible egos (his second child has the middle name "Maximus"), and every award available (except the Championship). What does Kanye West do when put in a potentially embarrassing situation by South Park? He writes an unintentionally hilarious blog post explaining his personality type. What does Lebron James do when he is dunked on by a rookie? Tries to stronghand Nike into suppressing the tape of the incident. As if you needed further proof, he has "Witness" and "Chosen 1" tatooed on his body. Does anyone remember the pic of Kanye on the cover of Rolling Stone with a crown of thorns? I'm just saying. If Lebron wants to be a true NBA legend, he better clean up his act. That's something that will not happen if he moves to New York or Brooklyn. If he re-signs with the Cavs then I think there is still hope.

The Mavericks Remain One of the NBA's Elite

Probability: .33

The Mavericks didn't win with this line-up 3 years ago, and they aren't going to win with it now. They have the biggest asset and the biggest liability in Mark Cuban. He is the biggest asset insofar as the Maverick's financial maneuverability is not based on the health of the NBA's financial situation, but rather their independently wealthy owner. The league is being hammered by the recession, and while everyone else may be a seller, the Mavs can afford to be a buyer. However, Cuban does not understand his roster in an objective way. He is emotionally tied to the players he has, and this keeps him from grabbing big names. For example, there were a number of high-profuile players available the past 12 months while most teams were involved in a roster firesale. Cuban's hangup? He doesn't want to part with J.J. Barea. He could have had nearly any player in the league that changed addresses the past year, but his unwillingness to give away any of the talent his own team has prevents him from pulling the trigger. I have no doubt that he will try to keep Terry, Howard, Nowitzki and Dampier until they are 42 years old. He could have almost any player from the rosters if a dozen NBA teams if he throws in a load of cash with a minor player from his own roster. The Bucks gave away Richard Jefferson for money and some players that probably couldn't play Division II basketball, the Pistons gutted their roster, the Bobcats traded their star PF/C for Tyson Chandler's expiring contract, and teams are making financially-conscious decisions 9 out of 10 times. There is no way this Mavericks depth chart should look so similar to last years.

The Grizzlies Experiment Actually Works

Probability: .000000001

Let's see, you have the best collection of young talent in the league that finally began to gel towards the end of the season, and you add perennial role-models Allen Iverson and Zach Randolph. Someone needs to be fired for this. Allen Iverson is not quick enough to be the mismatch he used to be and he takes a lot of terrible shots, and Zach Randolph is L-A-Z-Y and takes a lot of shots. So now you have a collection of shooters with no veteran presence to mentor Gay, Mayo and Gasol. I have no doubt that they will win more games than last year, but at what cost? This young team is in the critical stage of development, and they add one-dimensional players on the downside of their careers? This is how it should have gone: sign Andre Miller and Brandon Bass and let them show these kids how to run the offense without throwing up 30 awful shots a game with 15 seconds on the shot clock.

The San Antonio Spurs Finish with the Best Record

Probability: .25

I'd give this a much higher likelihood if A) I knew how well Manu has recovered from naggin injuries B) this team wasn't just built for the playoffs. They recalled Richard Jefferson from their farm team, the Milwaukee Bucks, signed Antonio McDyess for free and drafted DeJuan Blair behind players like Hasheem Thabeet, Tyler Hansbrough and Sergio Lull-you-to-sleep. It'll be interesting to see Duncan in his first outing as mentor for a possible replacement. Will it be like Samuel Jackson/John Travolta or Natalie Portman/Hayden Christiansen? The Richard Jefferson trade is by far the biggest off-season acquisition we've seen this summer and it protects them against the injury bug in a big way. This cements them as the number one Laker-killer in the West.

Shane Battier is Recognizes as the Best Defensive Player

Probability: .1

Now that low-life Bruce Bowen is basically done (and was basically done 2 seasons ago), it seems that there is finally room for Battier to get recognized as the best wing defender in the NBA. Of course, he won't because he isn't a trash-talker, doesn't have an attitude problem and plays for the Rockets (all things King Stern requires of his minions). Battier played 3 different positions last year, and literally made a group of nobody players into defensive stalwarts. He steals and blocks, but not at a high enough rate to garner mention by stat-fanatics. He shuts down players in the post and plays just close enough on the perimeter to discourage any three-point attempt. Extremely intelligent and a model player-- a throwback to the fundamentally sound players of old. Any team-- even the Rockets-- will be in any game as long as he plays 30 minutes.

Conclusion

The NBA is getting ravaged by the fantasy-league stat-sluts who throw out numbers without any larger context. Do you know who has won the most NBA championships? The Celtics. Do you know how many Celtics have won the scoring title? My point is that there is seemingly little thought put into NBA analysis anymore. Chemistry is a thing of the past, even though the teams that stress chemistry (Spurs, Lakers, Celtics, Pistons) consistently perform above-average every year. This is exactly why the Raptors are a trendy pick that will inevitably underperform again. Bosh is overrated and unmotivated at the defensive end, something you'd never see Duncan or Garnett doing. You can make much better predictions if you pay attention to the way a team plays rather than individual statistics, and that is how I made this super-serious list of predictions.