
Indianapolis Colts Week 1 Stock Report
The regular season is officially here.
Final rosters have been set, and game planning is in place for Week 1 opponents.
For the Indianapolis Colts, this means a trip to Buffalo to take on the Bills, a team with a new, mysterious quarterback and a new, brash head coach. The Bills will be carried by a defense that could be the best in the league, but may be burdened by an offensive line with much less certainty.
In the Bills, Rex Ryan has found a team not so unlike the New York Jets he coached back in 2009. The Bills' rushing attack might not be as bruising, but its defense might be better than anything Ryan had to work with in New York.
It's not a particularly favorable matchup for Indianapolis, who has struggled with mobile quarterbacks like Tyrod Taylor in the past (see Pryor, Terrelle) and may not have the offensive line cohesiveness needed to deal with Buffalo's terrifying front seven. Still, the Colts are favorites, largely thanks to Andrew Luck and a three-year run of success.
As the team prepares for its trip, here are a few players and narratives that are gaining steam or slowing down.
Stock Up: Andre Johnson
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You could go back and forth for days on the Colts' biggest offseason acquisitions if you wanted to.
Which player increased the Colts' offensive standing the most?
Was it Andre Johnson, with his strong hands and savvy veteran experience? Or was it Frank Gore, an immediate and resounding upgrade over Trent Richardson that could provide much-needed balance? If you're looking for a dark horse, it could be first-round pick Phillip Dorsett, who adds an even greater speed element to the Colts' passing attack.
The argument for Johnson is that he fills a void that was completely missing last year as Dwayne Allen and Reggie Wayne were hampered by injuries, a void of a reliable possession receiver. Luck loves to zero in on possession guys when under pressure, but he didn't have that often during the back half of last season.
Against the Bills, Johnson should see an immediate test of his new role.
T.Y. Hilton is returning from a concussion, and the fourth-year receiver will face a difficult matchup. The Bills' top cornerback, Stephon Gilmore, will track No. 1 receivers this year, according to the Buffalo News' Tyler Dunne.
That means Johnson will benefit from going up against rookie Ronald Darby, who has had his struggles in the preseason. In addition, the Bills' fearsome front seven may lead to more quick plays from the Colts, which favors Johnson.
Stock Down: Offensive Line
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While the Bills' front seven may lead to a more favorable game plan for Andre Johnson, it will present the team's offensive line with all kinds of issues.
The Bills might have the most talented defensive front in the league, while the Colts offensive line is a bit of a mess right now. This can be a problem in both pass and run blocking, as the Colts' preseason game against the St. Louis Rams hinted at. The Rams may be the only team in the league that can compare to the Bills' front-seven talent.
Against the Rams, the Colts ran for just 1.9 yards per carry in the first half, which was the duration of time most of the starters on both teams played. And while the Colts didn't allow Andrew Luck to take a single sack, the front seven did allow Luck to be pressured on eight of 21 dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus. Keep in mind, this was also a very risk-averse game plan for Indianapolis, focused on Luck getting the ball out quickly.
The Colts line will have its hands full with the Bills. Frankly, we haven't seen the offensive line have a strong performance yet, not when the games count. Buffalo is one heck of a first test.
Stock Up: Defensive Line Youngsters
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All offseason, critics called for the Colts to make changes in a few key areas, namely the defensive line. The Colts made changes all right, culminating in the final trimmings to a 53-man roster this past weekend.
It started with the release of third-year defensive tackle Montori Hughes, a move that came as a complete shock, but one that foreshadowed an unexpected group of cuts. Among the cuts would also be starting nose tackle Josh Chapman.
With the cuts and the season-ending injury to Arthur Jones, two of the three projected starters are no longer even options, and the depth chart has been completely changed. Hughes and Jones were the top two 3-tech defensive tackles on the roster, or such was the assumption.
The team did add Earl Okine to the mix, but he's more of a 5-tech defensive end. They also claimed T.Y. McGill, who could play 3-tech.
But the onus will fall on rookies Henry Anderson and David Parry. Both played well during the preseason, flashing a disruptive ability that the Colts have missed in recent years. It wast the Colts' confidence in these players that led to the release of Hughes and Chapman.
According to head coach Chuck Pagano, via Mike Wells of ESPN.com, the two rookies earned the starting jobs:
"The other guys played better. We knew there was competition across the board at every position. That’s where the roster was at. Those guys performed. We had to make tough decisions, not only at defensive line, but other positions. We let go of some really good football players. We hope the best for those guys, and we hope that they have another opportunity. We said all along that we were going to give guys an opportunity, give guys a chance and those guys took advantage of the opportunity. We wish those guys well, but it’s time to move on.
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Against the Bills, the Colts will have chances to wreak havoc. They'll need to against the dynamic athletes the Bills have on their roster.
Stock Down: Running Back Depth
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Like the defensive line, running back depth has been hit hard this preseason as well.
While the team protected veteran Frank Gore, the rest of the roster saw more than its fair share of preseason opportunities.
Unfortunately, football is a violent sport, and Daniel "Boom" Herron was the most notable injury. Herron sprained his shoulder returning a kick in the final preseason game, and was subsequently released from the team. Herron's injury isn't long-term, but the Colts plan on agreeing to an injury settlement that will allow Herron to become a free agent, per Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star.
But with Herron out of the mix, that leaves Vick Ballard (who is recovering from a hamstring injury and has just one year of NFL game action under his belt), Josh Robinson (a rookie recovering from a concussion) and Tyler Varga (undrafted free-agent rookie) as the only backups behind Gore.
The Colts can probably get away with that for a week, but the team likely wants to keep Gore's snap count low, so those young backs need to heal and get game experience as quickly as possible.
Stock Up: Robert Mathis
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We've heard all kinds of things regarding Robert Mathis' return from injury this season, from a potential October return to a mid-September return to the field.
But apparently things have gone better than expected.
Several beat reporters in Indianapolis have made it known that signs are there for the veteran pass-rusher to be on the field against the Bills this Sunday. Both Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star and Mike Wells of ESPN.com mentioned it, while Mike Chappell of IndySportsCentral.com confirmed Holder's report.
Per Holder's story:
- Mathis has been practicing at full speed this week, including a full physical load against offensive linemen.
- Chuck Pagano's tune has changed from especially cautious to one that opens the door for a potential Mathis appearance.
- Mathis was coy about the potential of playing, saying the Colts have a "mutual decision and a plan in place."
The Colts would love to see Mathis return to the field, not only because of his history as a pass-rusher, but simply to see what he has left sooner rather than later. The quicker Mathis gets on the field, the quicker the Colts will know whether or not he can be a significant part of their defensive plans this season.
Another quality pass-rusher would go a long way in solidifying the Colts defense, so even if Mathis is only on the field for a few snaps Sunday, watch closely.
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