Predicting the 2015 Chase Field After the NASCAR Season's Halfway Point

Brendan O'MearaJun 10, 2015

Ever since the Daytona 500, we’ve mentioned the Chase over and over again. It’s the 10-race elephant in the room, and it grows in size with each passing week. There’s no avoiding it as the drivers speed toward that Emerald City in search of a way home(stead).

With 12 races to go in the regular season, 10 spots have been sealed, so only six remain until the final three months burn away under the summer sun.

There are six drivers who, if the regular season ended today, would qualify. There are several sitting just off the pace on the lead lap capable of winning and shrinking the possibility of pointing in by one.

Let’s look at just how those final six spots may shake out since we’ve crested the halfway point of the regular season.

Drivers in If the Regular Season Ended Today

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Derik Hamilton/Associated Press

Jamie McMurray

Chase Grid Standings: 11th

Jamie McMurray is one of those drivers who fails to get much camera time during a racing broadcast yet has been performing at Chase-contending level all year.

He has one runner-up finish and five top-10s including back-to-back seventh-place finishes in the last two races.

J-Mac (Is that a thing? Can it be a thing? Should it be a thing?) is a seven-time winner on the Cup circuit with wins at Indianapolis and Daytona, two forthcoming tracks this summer.

Kasey Kahne

Chase Grid Standings: 12th

Kasey Kahne was a late addition to the Chase a year ago when he won at Atlanta. This year, he has five top-10s and two top-fives and, you know, he drives for the Monolith: Hendrick Motorsports.

Kahne’s two top-fives came at Phoenix and Dover, a 1.5-mile track and a one-mile track.

Kahne has wins at Loudon, Bristol, Sonoma, Pocono and Michigan, so his chances of locking up a spot in the Chase are very, very good.

Jeff Gordon

Chase Grid Standings: 13th

It's weird to see Jeff Gordon this far down the Chase standings. There’s hardly a track where he hasn’t won (actually, it's only one) so it should come as a surprise if Gordon goes winless in 2015. It's happened before, but for a guy with 92 trips to Victory Lane in his passport, it would be rare, indeed.

He may just not have it this year when it comes to wins. He has eight top-10s and two top-fives and has, at times, looked the part. Still, Gordon hasn’t been able to put an entire race together. One thing or another lets him down, whether that's pit strategy or speeding penalties.

“I think we are very conscious of the fact that we need to improve our performance, especially on the 1.5-mile tracks,” Gordon said in Jay Pennell’s FoxSports.com story. “We have not lived up to our own expectations, and we are working extremely hard to find that.”

Paul Menard

Chase Grid Standings: 14th

Paul Menard has done well enough to be in the Chase Grid for the entirety of the season, but his time could be eroding. Despite two top fives and three top 10s, his time in the Chase Grid feels borrowed.

He has one career win, and that came at the Brickyard 400 in 2011. He has to wait until July 26 to race there, but that could be his best chance to lock up a spot in the Chase.

Finishing 31st at Pocono this past weekend did him no favors, as he lost some ground in the standings and let others creep closer.

Aric Almirola

Chase Grid Standings: 15th

Last year’s winner of the Coke Zero 400 won the race since he happened to be on the lead during a red-flag stoppage at Daytona. The race was awarded to him and he made it into the Chase.

He bounced out of the Challenger Round, but he was among the 16 when drivers like Tony Stewart and Clint Bowyer were not.

Almirola has one top five and it’s also his one top 10 in the FedEx 400 at Dover.

He could, and probably will, be supplanted.

Ryan Newman

Chase Grid Standings: 16th

Maybe the biggest grinder on the Cup circuit, Ryan Newman will have to continue said grind for the remainder of the year.

He was docked 50 points earlier in the year following his failed tire audit. Finishing 39th at Pocono following an inopportune spinout with AJ Allmendinger didn’t help matters either.

If anyone can hang on and do this it’ll be Newman. He managed to finish second in the 2014 Chase without winning a single race.

Chase Contender: Kyle Busch

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Nick Wass/Associated Press

Looking up and down the NASCAR roster, no driver in the field looks more capable of qualifying for the Chase than Kyle Busch.

NASCAR dubbed him eligible for the Chase if he wins, and it looks like that win is eminent. Coming back from that gruesome accident prior to the Daytona 500, Busch barely missed a beat.

He debuted by finishing 11th in the Coca-Cola 600, followed that up with a 36th-place effort at Dover and then earned his first top-10 at Pocono.

Kathy Sheldon of NASCAR.com said she’s not a betting girl, but if she was:

"
I’d put money on Busch getting a win, as well. But his bold checkers-or-wreckers approach to driving will cost him as he tries to climb out of this points hole. Even at Bristol, where he has five wins and 12 top-10 finishes, he wrecked out at the 2014 fall race and finished 29th in the spring race. And we have Sonoma in the next 13 races, where Busch has an average finish of 25th place over the last six races.
"

He has driven all too well in his brief return, and he’s only going to improve.

Chase Contender: Clint Bowyer

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Nick Wass/Associated Press

Bowyer sits in 17th place in total points, call it the Lucky Dog spot on the grid. He has three top 10s, and he won the second Sprint Showdown to get into the Sprint All-Star Race.

What does this mean? It could be prime time for Bowyer to get back to Victory Lane for the first time in two years.

With two career wins at Loudon and two career wins at Richmond, those appear to be two strong tracks for Bowyer to clinch a spot in the Chase.

Chase Contender: Greg Biffle

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Nick Wass/Associated Press

Greg Biffle pointed his way into the Chase in 2014, but it never amounted to much. The high-water mark for this team came when he ran away with the first Sprint Showdown and parlayed that into a runner-up finish in the Coke 600.

His average finish in 2015 is 19.6 and he’s bettered that in his last four races.

The Biff (Is that a thing? Can it be a thing? Should it be a thing?) has four wins at Michigan and he’ll see that track twice between now and August 15. He also has two wins at Darlington, where the Cup heads on September 6, the penultimate regular-season race.

Chase Contender: Kyle Larson

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Nick Wass/Associated Press

Kyle Larson has yet to win a race, but he still drives near the top 10 with enough regularity that a win could be on target. He hasn’t quite lived up to the 2014 season that saw him win Rookie of the Year with 17 top-10s, but that's how this game goes at times.

He said in Marty O’Brien’s Daily Press story that he’s gotten better since last year and is more mature. He also added, “Maybe I understand what I need in a race car a little better. I don’t know, this year we have kind of struggled so far starting off, but I think we are getting better even now.”

He has top-fives at two of the next 12 tracks and could be a surprise to sneak into the Chase given that he’s only 41 points behind Newman.

Who's In, Who's Out

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Mike McCarn/Associated Press

Who’s In: Kyle Busch

Busch has his challenges ahead of him, but he already seems like he’s in a good driving groove already. That’s only going to strengthen over the next 12 races.

Like when his brother, Kurt Busch, returned, he showed just how talented he was by placing high right off the bench. Same thing for Kyle. Time is running out, but he'll be on the winning side of a race before Chicagoland kicks off the Chase.

Who’s Out: Aric Almirola

Who’s In: Kyle Larson

Larson has two top 10s in his last two races including a third-place finish at Dover. His average start of 10.9 is one of the best on the entire circuit.

Larson is due for a win and even if he isn’t, he’ll could point his way in with consistent runs in the top 10 for the remainder of the season.

Who’s Out: Paul Menard

Who’s In: Ryan Newman

It’s fair to say that Newman is driving angry, or, more accurately, driving with a huge chip on those hulking, rounded shoulders.

He’s in 16th place in the Chase Grid and will either stay right there or climb up a spot or two. Will he win? He hasn’t won since 2013, but he has proven that he’s one of the best at earning points, and that will be enough to keep one driver out.

Who’s Out: Clint Bowyer

Who’s In: Jeff Gordon

He has had winless seasons in the past. Despite his troubles, this year just doesn’t seem like it will be one of those years. It hasn’t gone as planned, but there’s still time in Gordon’s farewell tour to earn a win and keep a driver out of the Chase.

Gordon won four races last year and, let’s put it this way, the only track coming up in the next 12 races where Gordon hasn’t won is Kentucky. Gordon will get in, and he could get hot and blitz through the Chase.

Who’s Out: Greg Biffle

The 2015 Chase Drivers

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Derik Hamilton/Associated Press

So here's your 2015 Chase Predictions. In no particular order, these will be the first group of challengers when the circuit heads to Chicagoland on September 20.