Can Williams Win a Formula 1 Race in 2015?
After scoring four podium finishes in the final five races of the 2014 Formula One season, it may seem like Williams have taken a step back this year. So far, through four races in the 2015 season, their best results are two fourth-place finishes.
But going back to the beginning of 2014, the Grove-based team is actually well ahead of their scoring pace. After four races last year, Williams had 36 points and were sitting sixth in the constructors' standings.
This year, despite Valtteri Bottas missing the Australian Grand Prix with a back injury (and with no time to replace him), Williams already have 61 points and are third in the Constructors' Championship.
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With that in mind, what should we expect from Williams for the rest of the season? Will they be able to claw their way back to regular podium finishes and take the fight to Ferrari and perhaps even Mercedes? Or will they tumble back into the clutches of Red Bull, if they can ever get their Renault engine operating at something approaching peak performance?
During the 2014 preseason, Williams looked to be the revelation of the year. Still, in our season preview, I wrote that I did not expect their performance advantage to last. Specifically, I said:
"The boys (and girls) from Grove are getting lots of hype and, yes, the Martini livery looks great, but I can't see Williams winning the development race against the bigger-budget teams as the season progresses. They may have a surprise result or two early (remember when Pastor Maldonado won the 2012 Spanish Grand Prix?), but it will not last.
"
Of course, the opposite happenedโthe team only got stronger as the season progressed. Williams did not have any great results until Austriaโthe eighth round of the seasonโwhen Felipe Massa started from pole position and Bottas took the team's first podium in more than two years.
In an interview with the official F1 website before the season, Williams chief technical officer Pat Symonds said: "It was a bit of a shame that Williams didn't win a race along the way, so it would be nice to win this year. And I think we can finish in the top three again. I set myself aspirational targets and my aspiration target for this season is being better than we were in 2014."
So far, so good. But,ย perhaps unusually in a sport where the difference between success and failure can literally be measured in hundredths of a second,ย Williams are also taking a longer-term approach.
At the end of 2014, deputy team principal Claire Williams told the official F1 site that "from where we are now, 2015 should almost be a dress rehearsal for a championship challenge in 2016."
If that remains the goal, then the team's incremental improvement compared to this time last year certainly seems positive.
But a championship challenge is impossible without regular race victories, and Williams' absolute pace is still a long way off Mercedes'. Here is the gap from the race winner to the top Williams car at each grand prix so far this year compared with the same races last season (the 2015 Chinese Grand Prix gap is from the end of Lap 53, the final racing lap before the safety car was called out):
| 2014 | +47.639s | +1m 25.076s | +58.145s | +31.265s |
| 2015 | +38.196s | +1m 10.409s | +1m 02.301s | +42.957s |
If the goal is to be fighting at the front in 2016, the pace of development at Grove will need to increase. Last week, per Autosport's Lawrence Barretto,ย head of vehicle performance Rob Smedley acknowledged that:
"We need to develop the whole package faster and at a higher rate if we are going to catch the people in front. That is our aim.
You [also] have to bear in mind that you have a huge and very technically-able organisation in Red Bull behind us, who will eventually get their act together.
They will be a lot stronger than they are now, so we need to be looking forward and keeping an eye on what is going behind us.
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Williams' biggest disadvantage compared to those teams is money. Their budget is not small, but Red Bull's, Ferrari's and Mercedes' are huge. On Monday, Williams announced a loss ofย ยฃ34.3 million in 2014, although, as the team's press release explains, the losses were expected. Still, in a spending war, Williams will not be able to compete with the really big teams.
Going forward, though, there is reason for optimism. After qualifying in Bahrain, Bottas explained to the official F1 site that Williams' performance is improving as the team gets better at managing their tyre temperatures.
The Spanish Grand Prix is next, on May 10, and it is also the site of Williams' last victory, in 2012. Without reliability problems for Mercedes, even a podium will be difficult to achieve this year, but Williams do appear on the right track. Third in the Constructors' Championship is certainly realistic and, with a bit of luck, their next victory may not be far away.
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