NASCAR at Las Vegas 2015: Complete Preview and Prediction for the Kobalt 400
We’ve seen a rather topsy-turvy start to the 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup season in the first two races. Joey Logano unexpectedly won the Daytona 500, and Jimmie Johnson looked like the JJ of old in winning at Atlanta.
But what about guys like four-time champ Jeff Gordon and three-time champ Tony Stewart? Both tied for 35th in points? Really?
Or how about guys like Sam Hornish, David Gilliland, Casey Mears and Aric Almirola all in the top 12? How many can say they saw that coming?
This Sunday’s Kobalt 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway presents a great opportunity for guys like Gordon and Stewart to get back on track while also allowing those drivers off to a surprisingly strong start the opportunity to continue going forward in that same successful vein.
LVMS is one of the favorite tracks on the circuit for Cup drivers. It’s also a good point of reference to see where your team is at after the checkered flag falls.
If your team is still struggling after three races, you could be in for a long season. But if you continue your early season success, the sky is the limit going forward.
By the Numbers: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
1 of 6
Kobalt 400
Place: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Date: Sunday, March 8
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: Fox, 3 p.m. ET
Radio: Performance Radio Network, Sirius XM Ch. 90
Distance: 400.5 miles (267 laps)
Defending race winner: Brad Keselowski
Youngest Las Vegas winner: Kyle Busch (03/01/2009—23 years, 9 months, 27 days).
Oldest Las Vegas winner: Sterling Marlin (03/03/2002—44 years, 7 months, 32 days).
Defending pole winner: Joey Logano, 193.278 mph (03/09/2014)
Youngest Las Vegas pole winner: Kyle Busch (03/02/2008)—22 years, 10 months, 0 days.
Oldest Las Vegas pole winner: Dale Jarrett (03/04/2001—44 years, 3 months, 6 days).
NOTES
— Eleven drivers have won poles at Las Vegas, led by Kasey Kahne with three.
— Race record: Brad Keselowski (154.633 mph, 03/09/2014)
— Qualifying record: Joey Logano (193.278 mph, 03/08/2014).
— There have been 17 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway from 1998 through 2014.
— Ten different drivers have won at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, led by Jimmie Johnson with four victories.
— Four drivers have the most top-five finishes (six each) at Las Vegas: Matt Kenseth, Mark Martin, Gordon and Stewart, and Martin has the most top-10 finishes (10) at Las Vegas.
*All statistics provided by NASCAR media relations department.
Key Storylines for the Kobalt 400
2 of 6
Jeff Gordon's struggles
The four-time champ needs to bounce back from a terrible start to his final season in the Sprint Cup Series. Two races, two wrecks—and he’s ranked 35th as a result. That says it all. He needs a win Sunday, lest he may begin to fall so far behind that he may never catch up. And what would his final season be without Gordon making the Chase as a result?
David Ragan and Regan Smith continue in place of Busch brothers
Both drivers continue as designated replacements for Kyle Busch and Kurt Busch, respectively. Ragan was especially impressive in Sunday’s race at Atlanta.
Each strong finish that both drivers manage to achieve while in their substitute roles can only enhance their chances for bigger, better and more quality Sprint Cup rides in the future. They both have the best equipment and the best personnel and support system behind them. This is the time to let their real and true talent shine, and they’re doing very good thus far.
Great start for Martin Truex Jr.
Honestly, it’s not a matter of if Truex will win a race this season, it’s a matter of when. Look at the standings and you might be shocked to see him in fifth place. But Truex has driven his butt off and made all the right moves behind the wheel.
The key now for him is to continue to maintain that consistency and strong start and not let an inevitable bad finish in some upcoming race wipe away all the good karma and momentum the team has built up to now. If he keeps things up, Truex will not only make the Chase, he’ll reach Victory Lane soon enough.
Is that really David Gilliland?
Can it really be? David Gilliland is in 11th place after the first two races of the season?
Now, taking things into perspective, while it is an achievement, there are still 24 more regular-season races to go until the start of the Chase for the Sprint Cup. But that being said, Gilliland is unquestionably one of the biggest surprises of the young season thus far. Now he just has to keep it going. The question is, can he?
Tony Stewart needs quick turnaround
Even though we have Stewart in our “Drivers To Watch” category on the next slide, he definitely is one of the top storylines as well. Off to a terrible start, Stewart is already 72 points behind points leader Joey Logano. That’s the near equivalent of two race wins, which are 43 base points, not including laps led and other potential bonus points.
If Stewart was in quicksand, he’d be between knee- and waist-deep right now. If he doesn’t pull himself out fast and soon, he may be nothing more than an also-ran for the rest of this season. But at the same time, we’re not giving up on Stewart. We think he can bounce back—and will, perhaps sooner than you may think (like this weekend).
Drivers to Watch
3 of 6
Like fishing in a lake when your line snaps, last season’s race at Las Vegas was a big one that got away from Junior. He ran out of gas on the final lap, and Brad Keselowski passed him for the win. Don’t be surprised if Earnhardt comes into Sunday’s race with a chip on his shoulder and revenge on his mind.
Tony Stewart
When was the last time Stewart was 35th (tied with Gordon) in the Sprint Cup standings? He certainly hasn’t gotten off to the type of start to the 2015 season that he and his fans envisioned. But we all know how fickle a sport NASCAR can be: You can have a terrible start, but one win makes everything right—or at least close to it. If he can stay out of wrecks, Stewart could potentially surprise Sunday.
Brad Keselowski
While he’s the defending winner of this race, Keselowski won last year’s event more by good fortune than anything after Junior ran out of fuel on the last lap. If Junior had the equivalent of a few tablespoons more fuel in his tank, he would have taken the checkered flag.
Danica Patrick
Hard as it may seem to believe to some, Patrick is ranked a very respectable 16th in the Sprint Cup standings after the first two races. That’s higher than guys like Denny Hamlin, Ryan Newman, Keselowski, Kenseth, Gordon and Stewart. Sure, it’s been only two races, but could we be on the verge of seeing Danica make some significant breakthroughs?
Frankly, we think she has a very good chance for a strong finish Sunday. And with a few breaks, who knows how high she could potentially finish.
Sam Hornish Jr.
The former three-time IndyCar champ and 2006 Indianapolis 500 winner is a lofty 12th in the standings. Is that a surprise? Not necessarily, especially when you consider his Richard Petty Motorsports teammate, Almirola, is ranked four spots higher in eighth place.
Thus far, after two races, RPM could be considered the surprise organization of the season thus far. And if both Hornish and Almirola have strong finishes at Las Vegas, they may no longer be a surprise...but rather, for real.
.jpg?w=256 "Packers Steelers Football")
Favorites
4 of 6
Jimmie Johnson
The six-time champ leads all drivers with four career Sprint Cup wins at Las Vegas. He’s got great momentum coming off his win this past Sunday at Atlanta. And given that he’s won so early in the season, Johnson could very well set the bar for everyone else to follow.
Joey Logano
You have to give Logano credit. He had a great weekend at Atlanta and came close to making it back-to-back wins after his triumph in the season-opening Daytona 500. What he did at Daytona was not a fluke, and Atlanta more than proved it. It’s very clear Logano is going to be a power to be reckoned with in every race this season.
Greg Biffle
This one is strictly a gut feeling. But we like what we've seen from Biffle thus far in 2015 from a competitive standpoint and the power he’s had under the hood of his Roush Fenway Racing Ford Fusion. Fords typically do well at Las Vegas, and given that Biffle hasn’t won since 2013, he could make a big statement with a victory Sunday.
Jeff Gordon
Come on, how much more bad luck can a guy have? Gordon has definitely not started his final Sprint Cup season in the manner in which he had hoped, knocked out of the first two races by wrecks—wrecks caused by other drivers, we might add. He needs to turn things around in a hurry, and Sunday is the right time and Vegas is the right place.
Kevin Harvick
Some people laughed when we said Harvick remained the hottest driver in NASCAR even though he hasn’t won a race yet in 2015 (but has finished runner-up in each of this season’s first two races). But if you look at his last five races—dating back to and including the last three of 2014—Harvick has two wins and three runner-up finishes, not to mention he’s the reigning champion. He’s more than a win waiting to happen, and Vegas suits his style of driving.
Dark-Horse Pick: Brian Vickers
5 of 6
This is more of a sentimental pick, but there could be no better story coming out of Sunday’s race than Brian Vickers winning in his first race back this season.
Vickers had heart surgery in December to repair a patch that had covered a hole in his heart for the last four years. The surgery was successful, but Vickers had to sit out the first two races of 2015 before he could get medical clearance to race again.
Now he’ll be back in a race car this weekend. Can you imagine the emotional scene if Vickers drives the No. 55 into Victory Lane?
Or should we call it "Vickersy Lane"?
And the Winner Is: Jimmie Johnson
6 of 6
The Jimmie Johnson that we saw win this past Sunday at Atlanta was as close to vintage JJ as there is. He led the second-highest number of laps and just could not be caught en route to his fourth career win there.
At Las Vegas, Johnson is in a similar position. Not only is LVMS the same length as Atlanta (1.5 miles), Johnson has won there four times, more than any other driver in the track’s 17-year history on the Sprint Cup circuit.
With his Atlanta win, Johnson is all but guaranteed a spot in the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Sure, he and the No. 48 team could rest on their laurels over the next 24 races heading into the Chase, but that’s not the M.O. of Johnson, crew chief Chad Knaus and the team as a whole.
Our guess is Johnson will go for the jugular in every race. It would not surprise us to see him win five or more races this season, maybe as many as 10.
To us, Johnson wins Sunday at Las Vegas. And by the way, we also picked Johnson to win at Atlanta, so we're both riding hot streaks, it would appear.
Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski
.jpg?w=480 "Packers Steelers Football")
.jpg?w=480 "FERNANDO MENDOZA")
.png?w=480)
.png?w=600 "Lottery Odds Locked In ✍️")
