Denver Broncos Fans Wondering: What's Behind Peyton Manning's Recent Struggles?

The Denver Broncos have transformed on offense over the last month of the season. Over the last three weeks, Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning has failed to perform up to his normal level.

Even in what is now a run-heavy offense, Manning has struggled. During this time, we’ve seen him pass for less than 200 yards in back-to-back games, have his streak of 51 games with a touchdown pass snapped and uncharacteristically throw head-scratching interceptions.

Over the last three weeks, Manning ranks 25th in the NFL with only 585 passing yards. Guys like Josh McCown (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 594), Blake Bortles (Jacksonville Jaguars, 609) and Shaun Hill (St. Louis Rams, 625) all have more yards through the air.

Manning’s 60.8 percent completion rate from Week 13 through Week 15 ranks below the league average of 62.4 percent during that time.

What’s behind Manning’s recent struggles? Let’s take a look.

Week 13 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Att	Comp	Comp %	Yds	TDs	INTs
34	17	50%	179	2	0

Manning finished the game against the Chiefs with less than 200 yards passing for only the second time in his Broncos career. In 2013, Manning passed for 150 yards in a loss to the New England Patriots.

The weather in Kansas City that night was less than ideal. The temperature was 23 degrees at kickoff, and it kept getting colder as the game went on.

In addition to the frigid temperatures, Arrowhead Stadium was getting blasted by the wind. Reports of gusts over 25 miles per hour were filed, and it certainly wasn’t a night to be filling the air with footballs.

NFL.com - Game Rewind

This pass gets away from Manning as he targets Emmanuel Sanders in the middle of the field. Sanders does a good job of playing like a defensive back and knocking the pass away. We would see Sanders have to do the same thing on a short out route later in the game.

Week 14 vs. Buffalo Bills

Att	Comp	Comp %	Yds	TDs	INTs
20	14	70%	173	0	2

For the second week in a row, Manning had fewer than 200 yards passing. This time at home, the conditions weren’t as bad as they were the previous week in Kansas City.

The Broncos chose once again to blast their opponent with the ground game.

This marked the first time Manning was held under 200 passing yards in back-to-back games since 2009 (Weeks 16-17). That season the Indianapolis Colts had a 14-0 record and they decided to pull Manning early in each of his last two games.

Manning has never gone three straight games with fewer than 200 yards passing. That mark was in question as Manning and the Broncos traveled to play the San Diego Chargers in Week 15.

NFL.com - Game Rewind

The Bills can get after the quarterback, and that pressure altered a few passes from Manning. This picture shows yet another deep pass in the middle of the field intended for Sanders that hangs in the air a bit. This was one of the two interceptions that Manning threw against the Bills.

Week 15 vs. San Diego Chargers

Att	Comp	Comp %	Yds	TDs	INTs
20	14	70%	233	1	0

Manning showed incredible toughness in this game. Late Saturday night, Manning came down with what was likely the stomach flu. He had four IVs from Saturday night until Sunday morning just so he could play.

During the game against the Chargers, Manning left the game early to go to the locker room for some extra treatment. He simply ran into the tunnel after what he thought was a touchdown run by C.J. Anderson. The ruling was overturned, and Brock Osweiler got a couple of snaps on a later drive before the half.

Defensive tackle Terrance Knighton was not concerned when Manning left the game before halftime.

“I wasn’t worried. When you’re someone like Peyton, when you’re mentioned in the talks of the Michael Jordans, the Tiger Woods, the Wayne Gretzkys—when you’re in that type of category, the flu, or whatever was wrong with him, I knew he was going to battle through it.”

Had Manning not gotten ill, there was likely a larger day for the passing game in store. I interviewed Mike Klis, from The Denver Post, on my ESPN Denver radio show on Tuesday and I asked him bluntly if that was the case.

“Yeah, we could have seen more passing had Manning not fallen sick.” Klis continued, “Manning showed real toughness gutting it out through those flu-like symptoms.”

Manning alluded to an altered game plan when talking about his condition.

“Adam (Gase) evaluated me this morning to see how I looked and how I felt. I thought I would feel better throughout the day and my leg injury wasn’t really part of the plan but I have to believe it was related to the symptoms last night and from being dehydrated if I had to guess.” Manning joked, “A Tennessee education only goes so far but there are probably some parallels there.”

If Manning were to pass for around 300 yards and a couple of touchdowns (or more), there likely wouldn’t be any concern about his arm or his health status.

NFL.com - Game Rewind

Here's one of the few incompletions Manning threw against the Chargers. As you can see, Dwight Freeney has split a double-team and is about to hit Manning as he releases the ball. The pass sails high over Wes Welker's head and outside of the end zone.

Road Struggles

Two of the three games highlighted in this article were on the road. Simply put, Manning is better at home than he is away from Sports Authority Field at Mile High.

	Home	Road
Wins-Losses	7-0	4-3
Completion Percentage	72.4%	62.4%
Yards Per Attempt	9.0	7.0
Touchdown-Interceptions	21-4	16-7
Total QBR	91.4	61.5

The Broncos have averaged 33.7 PPG at home this season compared to 24.8 PPG on the road. Manning hasn’t been as efficient passing on the road this season.

The Broncos have one game left on the road this season. They travel to Cincinnati to take on the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football in Week 16. It will be interesting to see if Manning comes though with a better contest on the road as they face a Bengals team that is fighting to win their division.

Air Yards Per Passing Attempt

Some fans (and media) have begun to question Manning’s arm strength. Instead of watching the film, some are quick to point to the sub-standard numbers and declare Manning’s arm weak.

The film and the advanced data tell a different story.

Player	Team	AY/PA
Andrew Luck	Indianapolis Colts	10.54
Josh McCown	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10.23
Cam Newton	Carolina Panthers	10.10
Peyton Manning	Denver Broncos	10.07
	**NFL Average	8.16

As you can see, Manning has the fourth-best air yards per passing attempt over the last three weeks. This shows that he’s airing out the football and not just dumping off passes near the line of scrimmage.

Advanced stats and film study also show how Manning is still beating pressure with a quick release and little time spent in the pocket. He’s only spending an average of 1.95 seconds in the pocket, while his average time before passing is 1.98 seconds. He’s the only quarterback in the league with a time of less than two seconds in either category.

Manning is getting blitzed on 34.2 percent (league average is 30.7) of his dropbacks during this three-week period, but the pressure is only getting to him a mere 7.9 percent of the time (league average is 25.0).

Summary

Those who believe Manning is washed up are wrong.

Manning has gone for over 4,000 yards passing again this year. This marks the 14th time in his career of hitting that mark, and it extends an NFL record he already owns. He didn’t have much to say about the accomplishment after the Chargers game.

“I don’t have a whole lot for you on that but like I said it was just a good team win. We faced some adversity throughout the day today and to beat this team here at their place is very satisfying.”

Sure, Manning may not quite be the same player he used to be—age has a way of catching up with all of us. However, he’s still near the top of his game.

The film shows what the stats cannot. Manning has struggled in adverse weather conditions and he’s fought through severe illness to post decent numbers.

The pendulum may have swung too far in favor of running the ball in recent weeks. It seems like the team was going to correct that in the Chargers game, but Manning’s illness threw that game plan out.

We should see the Broncos maintain proper balance on offense the rest of the way out. That means everyone will get what they want—more of Peyton Manning and this world-class group of receivers.

All quotes and injury/practice observations obtained firsthand. Record/statistical information provided via email from the Denver Broncos unless otherwise noted. Contract and salary-cap information provided by Spotrac. Transaction history provided by ProSportsTransactions.com.