UPDATED: Did NFL Passer Ratings Spike in 2004 Or Have They Risen Steadily?

(Photo by Rick Stewart/Getty Images)

Update:  In order to simplify this article, I have updated it using gross passing numbers only per year.  Stats from 1940 to 2005 came from Cold Hard Football Facts, and are based on Gross numbers.  Please note that the numbers, run with gross or net passing yardage, yield the same results in terms of normal, predictable growth over time.

There is a common perception on BleacherReport and other sites, among writers and viewers alike, that the NFL went through a distinct and significant change in 2004—with a "spike" in league-wide QB passer ratings.

In fact, I've seen this argument used to claim that any QB stats post-2004 are somehow "over-inflated" because passing stats are easier to come by (i.e. it's much easier to be a QB now in the NFL than it used to be) because of this purported spike in passer rating. 

I decided to look into this further.  Everything I've seen has shown a steady progression in passer rating over the years.  There have been numerous spikes and depressions along the time line, but over time the ratings have "normalized" in a near linear upward progression. 

It's natural for all sports to evolve.  Players get bigger, stronger, faster.  Case in point, we see the 100m world record is broken every few years by some new sprinting phenom, as we did in the last Olympics with Usain Bolt.

Shouldn't we also expect QBs to evolve and become more efficient passers over time as they get bigger, stronger, and faster? Shouldn't they improve as better coaching and offensive schemes are developed?  Naturally we should expect this evolution.

Changes in the game have helped improve Passer Ratings as well.  Rule changes like the five yard contact rule for WRs have made significant impacts on the passing game.  Defenses haven't been consistent over the years either.  For instance, it is safe to say that in the modern NFL, the hardest time to be a Quarterback was 1966 to 1977, the Dead Ball Era.  13 of the 14 best defenses in modern NFL history played in this era.  Scoring was at a premium.  And Passer ratings submerged during this time period.  Being a QB today is easier than it has ever been with changes that have opened up the game on multiple fronts.

But to assume that "this" decade is the only decade that we've seen major changes is short sighted.  They've occurred repetitively through NFL history.

Suggesting a "spike" in league-wide passer rating in 2004 would indicate an "abnormal" jump in passer rating.  I will show how, instead, what we have seen is a normal progression in passer rating over time with no unusual spike.

In the appendix at the end of this article, I've provided the league-wide passer rating for all years in the NFL from 1940 to 2007 (omitting 2006 and 2008 for which I do not have the league-wide passer ratings calculated).

Did the League Wide Passer Rating "Jump" in 2004?

The short answer is yes, it increased in 2004.  The one year jump was a 4.5 increase in passer rating from the previous season.  In 2003, the league passer rating was 78.3.  In 2004 it jumped to 82.8, an increase of 4.5 in rating.  In a vacuum, single-year perspective, that certainly looks like a spike.

What is not being considered is that in 2002, two years prior, the league passer rating had risen to 80.4.  It dropped to 78.3 in 2003, making the uptick to 82.8 in 2004 look all the more drastic.  In fairness, the jump from 2002 to 2004 was only 2.4 points.

Also not considered is that in 2005 (the year after the spike), the league passer rating fell 2.7 points back down to 80.1, a passer rating lower than the 2002 mark of 80.4.  Here is a chronological list of league-wide passer ratings from 2000 to 2008:

• 2000—78.1
• 2001—78.5
• 2002—80.4
• 2003—78.3
• 2004—82.8
• 2005—80.1
• 2006—80.4
  
• 2007—82.6
• 2008 -83.2

Now, if you will, consider that the league-wide passer rating was 79.2 in 1995.  Yes, that's right, 79.2.  The difference in Passer Rating from 1995 to 2008 (14 seasons) has been 4.0 total passer rating points, or .29 points per season.

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