Odds of the Washington Nationals Pulling off a Comeback

With a rotation of aces, a talented bullpen and a high-powered lineup, the Washington Nationals were supposed to be perfectly built for the postseason. 

Then they ran into the San Francisco Giants and their "champions blood," as Hunter Pence put it via Andrew Baggarly of CSN Bay Area.

Washington's pitching showed up in the first two games of the National League Division Series, but the bats managed just three runs as the Nats tumbled into an 0-2 hole. It doesn't get any easier in Game 3, as the club travels to AT&T Park in San Francisco to face Madison Bumgarner. In the NL Wild Card Game, the left-hander dismantled the Pittsburgh Pirates, reeling off a four-hit shutout. 

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

Washington has its own ace going in the must-win tilt, as Doug Fister is set to get the call. The starter was lights out in his first season in the NL East, and he appeared in the postseason in each of the past three falls with the Detroit Tigers. During that time, Fister posted a 3-2 record with a 2.98 ERA. 

If Fister can carry the Nationals past Bumgarner, the team could be in line for a favorable matchup in Game 4. As Sam Ryan of MLB Network reports, manager Matt Williams has yet to decide on a starter for that contest. The obvious choices would be either Gio Gonzalez or Tanner Roark.

Meanwhile, Ryan Vogelsong would likely be slated to get the nod for the Giants, according to Alex Pavlovich of the Bay Area News Group. With an 8-13 record and a 4.00 ERA, the 37-year-old has been shaky throughout 2014.

Winning Games 3 and 4 in San Francisco would clearly swing the momentum in favor of the Nationals. Plus, the team would get the added bonus of playing Game 5 in front of its home crowd at Nationals Park. That decisive clash would see the returns of Stephen Strasburg and Jake Peavy, who would both be pitching on six days' rest. 

Like their Game 1 duel, such a matchup would figure to be a low-scoring contest. Scoring any runs at all has so far been a major issue for the Nats' offense. The lineup has been ice-cold in the first two games of the series, putting up a .160 average. That's startling considering that Washington ranked third in the NL in runs scored in 2014. 

While not making any excuses, Jayson Werth offered a compelling explanation for the lack of offense, via Bill Ladson of MLB.com.

"I hate to blame it on the four days off, but sometimes, it's tough to get in your groove after the layoff. But if you are going to win, you have to overcome those things. It's bound to happen sooner or later."

Step 1 in that process would be get Werth involved. As Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post argues, the Giants have been doing everything they can to make sure that Werth doesn't "beat them." San Francisco's staff has been feeding the right-handed hitter a steady diet of pitches outside the zone. 

Finding a way around that strategy will be crucial, as Werth has been historically good in October throughout the course of his career. In 51 postseason games, Werth has clubbed 14 home runs and posted a .560 slugging percentage with a .927 OPS. 

Hitting .100 (1-for-10) in the first two games, the right fielder has been a non-factor in the series. The Nats need that to change, and they need that to change fast. 

Odds of Pulling off a Comeback: 9-1 (10 percent)

Note: All stats courtesy of MLB.com.

If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.