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Choke Odds for All MLB Teams Still Battling for 2014 MLB Playoff Spots

Karl BuscheckSep 22, 2014

There's less than a week left in the regular season, but there are still plenty of 2014 MLB playoff spots up for grabs.

The Detroit Tigers and the underwhelming David Price have lots of work to do before they can take home the American League Central title, while the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers have also yet to lock up their respective divisions. 

In the AL wild-card chase, the Seattle Mariners are on the verge of being left out of the picture, and over in the NL, the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Francisco Giants are battling for the top spot.

Detroit Tigers

1 of 8

The Target: Win the American League Central 

The Standings: One-game lead in the AL Central

The Remaining Schedule:

  • Sept. 23: vs. Chicago White Sox
  • Sept. 24: vs. White Sox
  • Sept. 25: vs. Minnesota Twins
  • Sept. 26: vs. Twins
  • Sept. 27: vs. Twins
  • Sept. 28: vs. Twins

Detroit's highly touted rotation has been a major disappointment.

No pitcher has struggled worse than David Price, whom the club brought in back on deadline day. In his last five outings, the left-hander has posted a 2-3 mark with a 5.81 ERA. Those aren't the numbers the club was looking for when they added Price on the final day of July. 

Fortunately for the Tigers, it looks like the middle of the lineup will power the team into October as the AL Central champs. Over the past month, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez and Miguel Cabrera have combined to club 19 home runs. 

Detroit's case to lock up the division is also helped by the fact that the team's remaining seven games are at Comerica Park against the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins. 

The Odds of Choking: 4-1 (20 percent)

Kansas City Royals

2 of 8

The Target: Hold on to a wild-card spot

The Standings: Two-game lead for the second wild-card spot; One game back in the AL Central

The Remaining Schedule:

  • Sept. 23: @ Cleveland Indians
  • Sept. 24: @ Indians
  • Sept. 25: @ Chicago White Sox
  • Sept. 26: @ White Sox
  • Sept. 27: @ White Sox
  • Sept. 28: @ White Sox

There's still plenty to be decided in the final week of the season for the Kansas City Royals. 

The AL Central club still has more than enough time to overtake the Detroit Tigers in the division, but there's also a chance the team could fall out of a playoff spot altogether.

If the Royals are going to at least secure a wild-card berth, some of the club's most important bats will need to wake up. 

In the past month, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Josh Willingham are all hitting south of .200, and Jarrod Dyson is hitting right at the Mendoza Line. 

The Odds of Choking: 3-1 (25 percent)

Oakland Athletics

3 of 8

The Target: Hold on to a wild-card spot

The Standings: One-game lead for the No. 1 wild-card spot

The Remaining Schedule:

  • Sept. 23: vs. Los Angeles Angels 
  • Sept. 24: vs. Angels
  • Sept. 25: @ Texas Rangers 
  • Sept. 26: @ Rangers 
  • Sept. 27: @ Rangers
  • Sept. 28: @ Rangers

Despite the club's disastrous second half, the Oakland Athletics still occupy the No. 1 wild-card spot in the AL. 

Ideally, the Athletics will maintain that top spot, but at the least the team will want to make sure that it claims one of the two wild-card berths. With Oakland's offense nowhere to be found, the squad will rely heavily on Josh Donaldson, the team's most dangerous hitter. 

The third baseman crushed a moonshot of a walk-off home run on Sunday against the Philadelphia Phillies. As Donaldson explained via Joe Stiglich of CSNBayArea.com, there's nothing he enjoys more than stepping to the plate when it matters most: 

"Ever since I was a kid that's just the moment I've always wanted to be in.”

If Oakland is going to earn a trip to the playoffs, the team will need Donaldson to come through with another big hit or two in the final week of the season. 

The Odds of Choking: 3-1 (25 percent)

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Seattle Mariners

4 of 8

The Target: Land a wild-card spot

The Standings: Two games back of the No. 2 wild-card spot

The Remaining Schedule:

  • Sept. 23: @ Toronto Blue Jays
  • Sept. 24: @ Blue Jays
  • Sept. 25: @ Blue Jays
  • Sept. 26: vs. Los Angeles Angels
  • Sept. 27: vs. Angels
  • Sept. 28: vs. Angels 

The Seattle Mariners are falling apart at the worst possible moment.

Throughout the season, it's been the rotation that has carried the wild-card contenders. However, in the past month, it's been the starting staff that has been the club's weak link, as both Hisashi Iwakuma and Chris Young have been torched. 

Iwakuma owns a 9.12 ERA in his last six outings, while Young is sporting an 8.59 ERA in his past four starts. 

The Odds of Choking: 1-3 (75 percent)

Los Angeles Dodgers

5 of 8

The Target: Win the National League West

The Standings: 3.5-game lead in the NL West

The Remaining Schedule:

  • Sept. 23: vs. San Francisco Giants
  • Sept. 24: vs. Giants
  • Sept. 26: vs. Colorado Rockies
  • Sept. 27: vs. Rockies
  • Sept. 28: vs. Rockies

With a 3.5-game lead and just five contests left in the regular season, the Los Angeles Dodgers are on the doorstep of winning the NL West title. 

It also doesn't hurt that the Dodgers have Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw slated to start the next two games against the San Francisco Giants, who sit in second in the division.

Kershaw has been absolutely dealing for the Dodgers, as he's posted a 20-3 record with a 1.80 ERA. His teammate Adrian Gonzalez would be shocked if the left-hander doesn't win the NL MVP, as the first baseman explained via Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times:

"If somebody even tries to mention someone else, they're an idiot."

The Odds of Choking: 19-1 (5 percent)

Pittsburgh Pirates

6 of 8

The Target: Win the No. 1 wild-card spot

The Standings: Tied atop the wild-card standings

The Remaining Schedule:

  • Sept. 23: @ Atlanta Braves
  • Sept. 24: @ Braves
  • Sept. 25: @ Braves
  • Sept. 26: @ Cincinnati Reds
  • Sept. 27: @ Reds
  • Sept. 28: @ Reds

Thanks to the respective collapses of the Atlanta Braves and the Milwaukee Brewers, the NL wild-card spots essentially belong to the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Francisco Giants.

The big question is which one of those squads will win the No. 1 spot and the chance to host the wild-card game. 

Thanks to Russell Martin and Andrew McCutchen, the Pirates have been rolling in September. So far this month, the club owns a 14-6 mark. The Pirates are not only in a great spot to claim the No. 1 wild card, but they are still in the conversation for the NL Central crown. 

The Odds of Choking: 2-1 (33.3 percent)

San Francisco Giants

7 of 8

The Target: Win the No. 1 wild-card spot

The Standings: Tied atop the wild-card standings

The Remaining Schedule:

  • Sept. 23: @ Los Angeles Dodgers
  • Sept. 24: @ Dodgers
  • Sept. 25: vs. San Diego Padres
  • Sept. 26: vs. Padres
  • Sept. 27: vs. Padres
  • Sept. 28: vs. Padres

The San Francisco Giants are limping toward the finish line. 

Outside of Madison Bumgarner and Jake Peavy, the team's rotation has been problematic, and the Giants offense has vanished as of late.

It won't get much easier, as San Francisco is set to face Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw in the team's series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

The Giants close out the season with a four-game home set against the San Diego Padres. That would appear to be a favorable enough matchup, but then again, the Padres swept away the Giants over the weekend. 

The Odds of Choking: 1-2 (66.67 percent)

St. Louis Cardinals

8 of 8

The Target: Hold on to first place in the NL Central

The Standings: 2.5-game lead in the NL Central

The Remaining Schedule:

  • Sept. 23: @ Chicago Cubs
  • Sept. 24: @ Cubs
  • Sept. 26: @ Arizona Diamondbacks 
  • Sept. 27: @ Diamondbacks 
  • Sept. 28: @ Diamondbacks

The St. Louis Cardinals are on the verge of claiming the NL Central title for the second year in a row. 

Adam Wainwright gets a ton of credit for the Cardinals' late-season run that has seen the club climb into first place in the division. The right-handed starter has ripped off five consecutive wins, as his record now stands at 20-9 with a 2.45 ERA. 

The final week won't provide the Cardinals with too many challenges. The team faces off against a couple of last-place squads in the Chicago Cubs and the Arizona Diamondbacks. 

The Odds of Choking: 19-1 (5 percent)

Note: All stats and videos courtesy of MLB.com. 

If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck. 

Benches Clear in Detroit 😳

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