In case you have been living under a rock that doesn't get ESPN, former member of the Big Three, Barry Zito, has gone from Opening Day starter to the Giants bullpen. Until the Mets robbed Johan Santana from the Twins last offseason, Zito had the biggest contract ever for a pitcher - but as one "honor" gets stripped from him, another appears imminent, as he now looks like he might become the biggest free agent bust ever (Mike Hampton, look out for your crown).
We knew he was in decline when he signed with SF, and we knew that Sabean was yet another victim of the voodoo magic of Scott Boras that seemingly makes any General Manager hand him a blank check - but considering his move from the AL to one of the biggest pitcher's parks in the NL and his incredible durability, I thought they would at least get above-average innings for most of the deal.
Oops.
Even though free agent pitchers tend to disappoint at the same rate as flashy NFL wide receivers, I'm still dumbfounded by this. My friend Nick joked it's as if the Monstars stole his talent in order to prepare for a baseball sequel to Space Jam. San Francisco Chronicle Writer Gwen Knapp said "Zito is fast becoming the pitcher's answer to Chuck Knoblauch and Steve Sax," reflecting a similar sentiment.
It isn't uncommon for a player to just spontaneously implode for no apparent reason; in addition to the aforementioned Knoblauch and Sax, Steve Blass, Rick Ankiel, Mackey Sasser, and Mark Wohlers all were victims. But the fact is, Zito's decline hasn't been sudden - in fact, it's as if, much like Miguel Tejada, he's been lying about his age.
No, I'm not about to trap Zito into an interview and reveal a correct birth certificate for him, but he is showing some of the classic signs of decline due to age - his HR/9 is up compared to his prime and his strikeouts and velocity are down. Pitchers tend to settle into a prime, pitch slightly below that prime for a while, and eventually collapse. Zito seems to have done all those things, but it seems odd that it's before 30, especially considering he has never been injured in his career. The only other example of a guy who had a similar pattern (off the top of my head) was Doc Gooden, who had 2 incredible years, 8 really good ones after that, and really had nothing left by 29. However, there are 2 logical reasons for his collapse; his cocaine addiction eroded his work habits, focus, and talent, and Mel Stottlemyre was told by the Mets to make him throw slower in an attempt to save his arm
comments (13) write a comment »
write a new comment
8 months ago
Never gonna happen, but good wishful thinking...
from 8 months ago
Thanks for the feedback, Dave. Yeah, it's a bit of a stretch, at least at this point, but I wouldn't be surprised if around the trade deadline it seems to make more sense for both teams.
8 months ago
No GM in their right mind would EVER take Barry Zito right now. This is an outrageous theory.
Especially not one who just took on he biggest contract in the MLB for a pitcher for. He certainly doesn't want the second highest either.
Minaya takes risks when there is an obvious upside i.e. owning the most dominant pitcher for the past 3 years. The only risk there is that Santana's numbers start to slide (from the top). He isn't going to take a $100 million dollar 'risk' on someone who is obviously defunct.
Zito is done. Period.
from 8 months ago
ChatterBalks, I'm not as sure of that as you are. Although he has been in decline, he did look more like his old self in the second half of last year (4.11 ERA, HR's, K's and BB's at roughly the same rate as 2003-2006). I just find it a bit crazy that we are perfectly willing to dismiss Sabathia's first month as an abberation, when with Zito it's a sign that he's definetly finished.
Much like the Giants did when they put him in the pen, "Zito is done" seems like an overreaction. And if Zito comes with his full contract then yes, it is stupid to take him- but if he is traded, the Giants are almost certainly going to eat a huge part of the money.
P.S: ChatterBalks does have a great satirical article on Barry Zito being posted on Craigslist - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/20369-Breaking-News-San-Francisco-Giants-Post-Barry-Zito-on-Craigslist-290408. Go read it if you haven't.
8 months ago
Good analysis of the pitching decline.
Do you think San Francisco would take Carlos Delgado for Zito? They would save money in the long run since Delgado is in the last year of his contract. They could probably even pawn him off on somebody else.
The Mets will be facing potential holes in their rotation in 2009 with Perez, Duque, and Pedro all being fee agents (and the last two possibly retiring), so it's not as crazy as it sounds.
8 months ago
I think you're being overly generous to Zito. His velocity decrease isn't sudden and it's not mechanical. I think I'll write a response later but basically, no GM is going to take Zito unless the Giants eat 80%+ of his contract. That's not going to happen so he isn't going anywhere.
Then again, the Pirates did take Matt Morris so stupidity does continue to abound. But I doubt any GM in the game right now is dumb enough to take Barry.
8 months ago
Seeing what has happened to Zito reminds me of Ervin Santana. He had a huge year and then went into a big time decline. However, Santana seems to have found his problem (mechanical) but Zito continued to struggle. Maybe a stint in the bullpen is what he needs for motivation or maybe just rest.
Even John Smoltz made a stint in the bullpen and came back with a vengeance the last couple of years. Who knows what this move will do to Zito, only time will tell. One thing is for sure, as bad as he has pitched..the offense could arguably have been worse.
8 months ago
The Giants would have to take Carlos Delgado, Luis Castillo and maybe some others off the Mets' hands in addition to eating a significant portion of Zito's contract
JF
8 months ago
I've been saying this since Peterson left for the Mets. Zito, while one of my favorites, is a head case and nobody deals with that better than Peterson.
8 months ago
A couple of you guys mentioned taking Delgado off the Mets hands - which seems unlikely considering they need to see what they can get out of their young 1B in San Francisco. But then again, I've never seen proof that logic exists in Brian Sabean's world, so I wouldn't rule it out.
8 months ago
Yes, he can. You guys should definitely take him :).
8 months ago
I agree that Peterson is a good coach and that Zito has the potential to be an asset; my misgivings are fiscal ones. I've seen Zito pitch--MAYBE he can be a help to a team in coming years, but he might also be just finished. If that's the case, I don't think the Mets could afford his contract AND the loss of prospects that such a trade might involve. The Metropolitans are wealthy, but they aren't the Yankees. They can't just buy their way into the postseason (although they can try; Beltran and Santana, I'm looking at you two). It would depend on how much smaller the Giants (and Zito, although I don't think he's in a good bargaining position) would be willing to eat and how much the Mets would have to shell out.
Also, trading Delgado to the Giants makes no sense for either side. The Giants don't need a washed-up, relatively old first basemen and who would play first back in NYC? Maybe they should ask the Marlins very nicely if they can have Mike Jacobs back.
from 8 months ago
Yeah, the financial part of this risk is huge. At his full salary, I would definetly not take the shot. At half of it - I would roll the dice, especially with only Santana and Maine still under contract for next year.
And asking the Marlins nicely worked for Mike Piazza - why not for Jacobs too? ;)
write a new comment