New England Patriots

New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans: Betting Odd Analysis, Pick Prediction

FOXBORO, MA - JANUARY 13:  Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots greets J.J. Watt #99 of the Houston Texans after the 2013 AFC Divisional Playoffs game at Gillette Stadium on January 13, 2013 in Foxboro, Massachusetts.  (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Elsa/Getty Images
OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistNovember 27, 2013

The Houston Texans come into this one having lost four of five both straight-up and against the number all-time against the Patriots. The Texans have also lost six straight to the books at home.

The Pats, meanwhile, have lost three straight road games and are mired in a 1-5-1 against-the-spread skid on the highway. The five all-time meetings have played OVER.

Point spread: Patriots opened as three-point favorites, but bettors quickly hammered it all the way to minus-nine; the total was 46. (Line updates and matchup report can be found here.)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 26.0-13.6, Patriots

 

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England comes in after one of the top five games of the season, and its come-from-behind win over the Broncos last Sunday night might have been the perfect immunization for the final stretch of the season. The Patriots have a ton of momentum.

They just need to avoid the letdown spot of playing a horrible team on the road one week after a stirring victory at home over Denver.

 

Why the Texans can cover the spread

That prime-time hangover from the Broncos rally presents a great opportunity for Houston. The game has "letdown spot" written all over it. Interestingly, New England has followed with a loss all three times it has scored at least 30 points the previous week.

 

Smart Pick

Given the history of these two and the fact they tend to play high-scoring games, the OVER appears to be the safest way to go. There's no telling which New England team will show up, but the Texans will play up to their level of competition. The OVER looks best, just like the previous five meetings between these teams.

 

Trends:

  • Texans 1-4 SU and ATS lifetime against the Patriots.
  • All five career meetings played OVER the total.      
  • Pats lost three straight road games (1-5-1 ATS past seven on road).
  • Houston rides a 0-6 ATS home streak.

 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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