It’s a Florida battle that looks like another Monday Night Football dud.
Point spread: Dolphins opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 41. (Line updates and matchup report)
OddsShark.com computer says: 18.0-11.9 Dolphins
Why the Dolphins can cover the spread
The Dolphins started 3-0 this season, then lost four games in a row. Now, after Thursday night's overtime victory against Cincinnati, the Fins are .500 at 4-4. The suspension of OL Richie Incognito might provide addition-by-subtraction, and going against a Tampa team that can't get out of its own way provides a chance to start another winning streak.
Why the Bucs can cover the spread
Tampa Bay may be winless, but it's had several shots at victory, including last week, when the Bucs led 21-0 at Seattle before eventually losing 27-24 in overtime. Rookie QB Mike Glennon owns an 8/3 TD/INT ratio since taking over for the departed Josh Freeman, and hasn't thrown a pick in his last three games.
Mainly, there are negative trends on both fronts in a matchup that doesn’t look great on paper.
The Odds Shark NFL computer is predicting Miami to prevail and cover in a low-scoring affair. By the numbers these two teams are fairly similar; the Dolphins own a short edge on offense, while Tampa ranks a little better on defense. But the Bucs are coming off an excruciating loss out in Seattle, while Miami will be working on a couple extra days off. Give the points and go with the Fish.
Miami 1-5 ATS past six Monday night games
Tampa Bay 1-5 ATS past six Monday night games
Dolphins 1-6 ATS vs. Bucs since 1982
Bucs lost seven straight at home (1-5-1 ATS)
Bucs 5-18-1 ATS as home dog since October 2006