Onto the final third of the league—the most potent division and the one in which I will probably receive the greatest amount of disdain for my predictions. In fact, I may lose my badge as baseball writer/blogger altogether.
This is a division that, in my opinion, is in a state of drastic change. With the Orioles all but written off for the year, this is still a deep and strong division with four teams that could win any of baseball's other five divisions.
AL East
I hope I haven’t already lost my readers, but hear me out. There is not another team in the division, let alone the league that has as much potential as the Rays. Top to bottom, the team has breakout candidates and can match up player for player with any team in the league.
With a little bit of luck, this team should be the best team in baseball. Furthermore, consider that the Rays used BJ Upton at second base for 48 games in 2007, which essentially single handedly led to the Devil Rays having the worst defensive efficiency in the majors.
Also, consider the depth of the Rays farm system. With youngsters at essentially every spot in the lineup, the club can afford to make a major trade this season to fill a team need.
In fact, if a CC Sabathia becomes available on the open market, is there another team with more trading chips than the Rays?
The pitching rotation is young, but extraordinarily talented. Kazmir, Shields, and Garza make up as good a trio as any in the majors. If a club has to run into these three for a series, watch out!
The bottom of the rotation is more uncertain due to the rawness of pitchers. As is, I am uncertain how things will shake out, but either way, the pitchers taking up the last two spots in the rotation should be at least league average when compared to other pitchers at their places in the rotation. Sonnanstine and Howell would be my picks, although both would be on a short leash.
The bullpen should be much stronger in 2007 with the addition of Percival. I also think Edwin Jackson
33 comments Last one added 11 months ago — Leave a Comment
Alfred Thomas about 1 year ago
that was the single dumbest article i have read in a LONGGG time. I am a Yankees fan and i find the placement of the RED SOX COMPLETELY ABSURDDD. ALSO, THE YANKS AGING ROTATION??? WTFFF WE HAVE AN AVERAGE AGE OF 28.8!! AND THATS WITH MUSSINA INSTEAD OF JOBA IN THE ROTATION! WITH JOBA ITS FKN 25.8!! PROBABLY NEAR OR AT THE TOP IN THE FUCKING MAJORS!! and thats not to mention all the other young guys in the minorss. I.E. Alan Horne, Steven White, Jeff Karstens, Darrel Rasner, Kei Igawa, and further down the line guys like Andrew Bracken and Dellin Betances. THEN we have bullpen guys u forgot to mention such as Billy Traber, Scott Patterson, Bruney, Olehndorf, Veras, Albadejo, all of whom have a better chance of making an impact than Ramirez. And we also have guys like jeff marquez, marc melancon, j.b. cox and others waiting in the wings. Yes an old and regressing staff indeed. I also disagree ENTIRELY on your evaluation of the Red Sox. The Sox are an EXTREMELY POWERFUL TEAM with a mix of TALENTED young guys and great vets. the D-Rays are much improved but i think its still going to be a couple of years while guys like david price develope b4 they contend. The Jays will be the same 80-90 win team they have been for years. In my mind, its the yanks and sox fighting it out for 1st place and fighting for the wild card with the indians or tigers, jays and rays figthing for 3rd place, and the orioles in dead last.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
Average age of 28.8?
Hughes - 22
Pettitte - 36
Kennedy - 23
Mussina - 39
Wang - 28
Now I'm not a math major but I have them at 29.6. An average age of 'above prime'. I also do not believe Wang nor Kennedy are quality starters. They have performed well, but I don't see them as sub 4 ERA pitchers. In fact, I do not see a starter on the Yankees that is capable of an ERA below 4.20 for the 2008 season. Comically, neither does PECOTA.
The fact that you named Kei Igawa as a sub for the Yankees should be evidence enough of how much trouble this rotation is in. Karstens and Rasner are both quite terrible as well.
In terms of the Yankees bullpen, I believe I called it 'strong'. Don't know how you missed that.
Thanks for reading, but try and read with an open mind rather then an opinion and utilizing my article as a reflection of your thoughts.
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Anonymous about 1 year ago
I forgot to mention that Wang has led the league in wins over the past 2 seasons, and pettitte grew stronger in the second half and in the playoffs. Furthermore, we are not EXPECTING hughes to be anything better than a 3rd starter this year! Also, A-rod's attittude will be an issue?? While he may be somewhat of a prima donna in a way, he is an extremely dedicated and hard worker, as well as a good teamate.
"Everyone expects that it is only a matter of time before Jonathan Papelbon’s arm falls off." WHAT BASIS DO YOU HAVE FOR THIS?? Papelbon is a stud, plain and simple, and over the past few years, the SECOND he has so much as felt a possible pain anywhere, the Red Sox understandibly shut him down. Beckett will be great, but has had problems with injuries. And, though i hate to admit it, the "young guys," Lester and Buckholz are both MORE than capable of thriving in the majors. This is the most ignorant article i have read.. in a LONGG time.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
Wang - There is not a TRUE performance statistic that agrees with the success he has had in the majors. Hitters will adjust to him, just wait.
Pettitte - I'm not expecting anything out of him. Neither should you.
Rodriguez - Was in a contract year in 2007 and had one of the best two or three seasons of his career. I'm not calling for him to become a 25hr .240 hitter, but a lot of regression is likely.
Papelbon - He has a major shoulder issue. Always has. I never said he wasn't a stud, but hes an injury risk.
Lester - I don't buy him as being a quality major leaguer. Neither do this years projection systems.
Buchholz - I like him long term, but I don't think he'll be a stud in 2008.
The problem is, you need to read things with an open mind. Consider what I am writing and the facts that I am using. Forget your bias' and your opinions and simply read. If you go into an article having already made a decision on it, you will fail in truly understanding what it is the author is saying.
Thanks for reading, but try to read my articles thru a different lens.
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Brandon O'Malley about 1 year ago
I agree that the Rays have a chance to really improve this year but for this team if they finish at .500 it will be considered a successful season. In this division you cannot truly expect a team of young players and a poor bullpen to win 90+ games, because at the very least, that's what it is going to take to win this division. Secondly, to think the Rays have what it takes to acquire Sabathia is ridiculous. While they may have the pieces to acquire him there is no way they can afford him and why would the Indians even trade him? To think the Red Sox and Yankees will finish near the bottom of this division is just fantasy talk. There is no way that can happen. Remember, in 2006 every player imaginable on the Sox got hurt, and they still finished ten games over .500 and that team did not have the depth this years Sox team has. As a Red Sox fan I have hated/respected the Yanks for quite a while and even though nothing would make me happier than seeing them finish in the bottom of this division, that's just not going to happen. Even if the ace of their pitching staff was Sidney Ponson they would still win over 82 games, just because their offense is that good. One last thing, the Red Sox have the second best farm system in all of baseball, to say their youth does not have potential is just dumb.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
Hey Brandon,
Thanks for reading.
The Sabathia comment was purely throwing out a name. Any free agent pitcher could be tossed into that argument. With the depth of the Rays system, they have got to be the favorite to make a trade like that.
In terms of needing to afford him, if the Rays perform up to the level that I expect, you can expect the Trop to be full with regularity. The ownership group will then be willing to ADD some payroll as they have already mentioned.
Furthering this, why would the Indians trade him? Consider this. I'm an Indians fan. If the club is looking at the standings and are saying 5-6 games out the division lead closing in on the trade deadline. Its all but a given they will not be able to retain him beyond this season, so if the Rays come to Mark Shapiro with a trade that has 2 or 3 of their top prospects. Say a Davis and a Brignac or Jennings and McGee. I find it tough to believe that Shapiro would turn down some of the top prospects the Rays have to please the fans.
Again, thanks for reading. Like I said to Anonymous, read my and any article with an open mind. Consider that if everyone read every article already having made a decision about what they think, there would never be any progression in civilization. Furthermore, consider the evidence that I used, progression, regression, etc...I think when you look at it from that lens, you will come to a drastically different conclusion.
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Dan Verhaeghe about 1 year ago
WHAT? rios terrible in the field? rios is probably the best defensive right fielder in the american league. he has a cannon of an arm.
and i'm tired of analysts constantly saying the no. 5 hole isn't filled- because it is by 22 year old jesse litsch who went 7-9 last season (dismal run support) despite having a 3.79 ERA.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
Hey Dan,
Sorry you misunderstood me. I was referring to the platoon in left field being brutal defensively. As in Stairs and Stewart.
Litsch was very luck last year. Do not fall into the trap of accepting ERA or Wins as a way to measure a pitchers worth.
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Dan Verhaeghe about 1 year ago
as for the tampa bay devil rays, they just don't have the pitching.
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L.J. Burgess about 1 year ago
OH ! snap !
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JJ Stankevitz about 1 year ago
What makes you think that Papelbon's arm is going to fall off? He threw 100+ innings back-to-back in 2004 and 2005. Mechanically, he's fine for a closer and he doesn't heavily rely on a pitch like a slider that puts a lot of torque on his arm. I've never heard anyone say that they "expect" his arm to fall off, so I don't know where you got that claim from.
Also, what makes you so confident about David Aardsma? He's either horribly inconsistent or consistently horrible. His two-seamer has this nasty tendency to run right down the middle and his other pitches aren't anything great to write home about. I'd be shocked if he gets more than 10-15 innings in the majors.
You know, if the Red Sox don't end up trading Coco Crisp and Drew goes down with his yearly DL stint, the Red Sox would have a pretty good backup. And if Lugo goes down, it's not like the Red Sox will be losing a whole lot of offense or defense with Alex Cora in there.
Finally, Okajima's head motion was a small reason why he had success last year. Any lefty with a fastball/changeup combo like his is going to have success, funky delivery or not.
Also, you can't possibly argue that the Red Sox & Yankees will fall apart because of injuries and then say that the Rays bullpen will be stronger with Troy Percival.
I'd be inclined to agree with your picks if it was 2010 or 2011, but guys like Price and Davis will be lucky to see half a season with the big league club and Longoria isn't even starting with the Rays in the majors. They know their place right now and are smart to keep these guys down so they can develop and win sometime in the future.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
Papelbon has a condition where the ligaments or muscles in his elbow are essentially non-essistent. What he did in 2005 and 2006 is as irrelavent as what he did in 2007 as he is one pitch from being shelved long term. There is, as you should know, a reason why the Red Sox are using him as a closer and not a starter, and it is because of his durability.
Aardsma is just a pitcher I like. Personal preference.
Okajima's average FB velocity in 2007 was 87mph while his change was at 81. His FB has a nice sink to it, but clearly he was getting by on deception in the first half of last season. Lets see how he adjusts for 2008.
As for Percival, he improves the bullpen, he doesn't make it. He is also one piece. Whereas the Sox and Yanks are relying entirely on 'over the hill' veterans.
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JJ Stankevitz about 1 year ago
Could you link something that discloses the Papelbon condition? I did a quick Google search for it and nothing came up.
Understood about Aardsma. I have a personal disdain for him after what he did with the White Sox last year, so carry on.
And I could see Okajima faltering in 2008 like a lot of Japanese relievers have in their second year, but as long as he's locating well, I think he'll be fine.
And I don't think the Yanks and Sox are relying entirely on over-the-hill veterans...I mean, both bullpens do have some older players (Rivera & Hawkins, Timlin just off the top of my head), but I think Rivera will be fine and Hawkins & Timlin don't make the Yankees & Red Sox bullpens, either.
It's going to be a fun division to watch, though, that's for sure.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
Hey JJ,
This isn't as specific as I would like, but here is a brief line about it: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/17260084/#storyContinued
Also, Will Carrol wrote the following a few weeks ago:
"There's little reason to think that another year in the role won't help even more, but the shoulder is a fragile thing. He'll be monitored closely again, and the risk that he's shut down as a precaution plays into his getting a yellow."
I read a while ago, I forget where now, that Papelbon is missing cartilage in his shoulder.
So I'm not saying hes a lock to go down with a major injury, but there are a lot more 'safer' closers then Paps.
As for the 'over the hill veterans', I'm referring to the overall age of the team. While the players are all performing at a high level, they are all at ages where a drastic drop off is not very far away. There is no arguing that. And that is what I am expecting this year. That is, I am expecting either a lot of injuries to stars or drastic dropoffs. Its simple regression.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
Also, Will Carrol's report has all but 3 players as a 'yellow' in terms of injury risk for the Red Sox. Not set in stone, but it is something that obviously concerns Carrol, so why not you?
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JJ Stankevitz about 1 year ago
Fair enough, Brandon. I respect what Carrol writes, so maybe he and you are on to something there.
While your article does make some very good points, I still think the Red Sox have the overall depth and resources necessary to win the division (resources as in, enough talent in the minors to trade for an injury replacement). But I don't think they're the 100-win team a lot of people have them pegged as.
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Glenn Darby about 1 year ago
Well that was a new take. I think you've got a point. On paper, and based on potential, the Rays are a much better team than the Yanks or Sox. The problem is that the Sox and Yanks have the money to IMPROVE if they have holes as the year goes on. If Paps goes down, the Sox can always buy Valverde from the contention-less Astros. If Mussina can't pitch, the Yanks have MLB-ready starters like Stephen Jackson in the minors and can buy anyone they please.
But don't let anyone on this board discourage you from having faith in the abilities of kids to live up to expectations. The Dbacks did it last year and the Rays can do it this year.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
Hey Glenn,
Thanks for reading...
I'm not sure the Sox are willing to spend the prospects it would take to bring in a Valverde. Consider that the Rays have more prospects and a younger team, I feel as though they would swoop in and take any player that the Sox or Yanks may go after.
As for the Yankees farm arms. I disagree. I don't see anyone that could contribute at the big league level. In fact, I feel as though Kennedy will be overmatched this season.
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Tom McCartney about 1 year ago
I'm a Yankee fan... And I love it! Haha. I love the fact that you have the Rays at the top of the division. They are the most exciting team in baseball this year and I wouldn't be shocked if they won the division. I'll probably have more fun watching them than my own Yanks.
I only disagree with you on the Jays. I don't see them performing to your standard, as they have been hyped to do the last few seasons. I don't know if I see Thomas, Overbay, and Wells to do what you expect them to either and to me, Ryan is still a major injury concern.
I like what you've done with the Yankees. You have every right to hate Wang, but he is productive. I don't know if I'd count out all the hitters you alluded to. Specifically, I see Matsui having a career year. I do expect to see a Jeter, Posada, and Giambi decline like you though. Not sure I see it with Abreu yet and I see Damon being better this season than the last two. I expect Hughes to be better than you believe, but it wouldn't surprise me if he wasn't. I think Pettitte stays consistent. Mussina declines and I'm not sure what to make of Kennedy yet.
I LOVE what you've done with the Sox. haha. Finally, someone agrees with me on the injury aspect. I've been waiting for it to happen for years. I couldn't agree more on Matsuzaka and Beckett, and the rookies are unproven. While Papi and Manny are in better shape this season, one of them has to go down for once.
You pegged Baltimore. I see Loewen breaking out as well and I love the names you expected surprises from in the outfield.
This is the best prediction of the division I've seen. it's very thorough as well. Nice job
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Thayne Hallyburton about 1 year ago
Switch the Rays and Sox then you make more sense. Interesting read for sure!
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L.J. Burgess about 1 year ago
OH ! snap !
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Anonymous about 1 year ago
ok its me again from the top. if mariano and joba as well as all the young guys like traber (whose looked great), bruney and ohlendorf, and thats not including patterson and britton and others in the minors, are over the hill vets then yes, the yanks are counting on over the hill vets. I am not saying i like the bullpen as there are too many wild cards. Yankee fans are not counting on hawkins or farnsworth for much this year.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
Hey,
I did a quick search to see where 'over the hill' came from, and I couldn't find it. I think, if anything, I was referring to the team as a whole. While many are still producing, they are at an age where expecting them to do so is probably a mistake, at least for the entire grouping.
That said, even the younger arms you suggest, Traber, Bruney, Ohlendorf, Patterson, Britton are far from sure things. And like many ballclubs, the team will hand the ball to the veterans like Hawkins and Farnsworth in pressure situations taking away the potential value of the aforementioned list.
Also, consider the bullpen if/when Joba is moved to the rotation. While he will definitely improve over whatever junk the Yanks are getting out of Petttitte or Mussina, I don't see him being as effective over 85-100 pitches as he was out of the pen.
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Marc Stanley about 1 year ago
Good call on the Rays. Not so good on the Jays.
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L.J. Burgess about 1 year ago
Let's do Mid-Terms !!!
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
L.J.
Done and done
http://theoutsiderslook.blogspot.com/2008/06/division-by-division-recaps.html
OR
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/33541-division-by-division-recaps
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L.J. Burgess about 1 year ago
Good deal Brandon. Checked it out ... you did better than most of the SI guys.
Is parity coming to MLB ?
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Brandon Heikoop 11 months ago
I don't know if we will ever have parity. But for now we have a system where teams better understand draft picks-a lot fewer busts-and where everyone is involved in the international market. Clearly there is a sound argument where that will fade, as the craze for on base percentage did post Moneyball. The Rays have swooped in discovering the value of defensive play, something that will presumably be common-place in a short time.
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Ryan Williams 11 months ago
While much of this article has been proven wrong this season (Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles being uncompetitive), I have to say that was excellent foresight on the Rays. Good article
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Brandon Heikoop 11 months ago
I wouldn't say the Jays and O's predictions have been proven wrong...
The O's are in last place for the division. They were fortunate with a hot start and have fallen considerably-to no one's surprise.
The Jays have turned things around considerably and are yet to be completely healthy-the club has arguably had the worst injury luck in all of MLB. At this point, they are a hot streak away from being right in the thick of things.
The Red Sox have been the luckiest team in the majors. While their pythagorean W/L does not agree with this, I'd like to see a show of hands that thinks Drew, Youkilis, Lowell, Pedroia, and Ellsbury can continue at their current pace. It's not as if that has been squared up with some unlucky pitching performances, on average, the Sox rotation has been extraordinarily lucky. All that being said, a 12 and 14 month is not out of the realm of possibility, which would drop this team down to 3rd/4th.
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Ryan Williams 11 months ago
I don't think that you can call the defending world champion team that has many of the same players (all of the players you just mentioned were there to win it) lucky. They have a lot of talent and i don't think they will drop any lower than second, also its not out of the question. I do agree that the Jays seem to always have the worst injuries, with their only competition in that department being the Braves this year. Still though, I highly doubt they will finish second, because the Rays and the Sox are just too good. And as for the Orioles, yes they entered the break on a slide, but it was not just their hot start that has them where they are. They have played competitively all season, and it wasn't until week ago that they dropped to under .500 and last place. I'd say thats proving wrong the dismal prediction for this season. Since the beginning of June, they have hit the ball as well as anybody, an better than most, in the league. In my opinion, that was proving wrong what you said about them "all but given up" offensively for 2008.
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Brandon Heikoop 11 months ago
JD Drew isn't overachieving?
Kevin Youkilis isn't overachieving?
Mike Lowell isn't overachieving?
Dustin Pedroia isn't overachieving?
Etc, etc, etc...
That said, those players are going to cool off, or at least have a month or two of closer to their career norms. The same will happen with the pitching staff (look no further then Tim Wakefield) and the team will struggle, at least for a little while.
Thus, I do believe the BoSox have been 'lucky' because they have gotten such outstanding production from such unlikely heroes.
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Ryan Williams 11 months ago
We don't know whether or not Pedroia is overachieving, he's only in his second year. This could be his "career norm." And overachieving doesn't mean being "lucky", it means to perform better and achieve more than was expected. That is what they are doing. And it shows the depth that they have. During an off season by Manny Ramrez and an injury to David Ortiz, they have the depth to have players step up and play better in their absence. I agree that considering those setbacks, they have played much better than expected. But it isn't something that has to do with "luck."
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