UFC 140: Which Fighter Has the Most to Lose?

UFC 140: Jones vs. Machida is set to take place this very Saturday, Dec. 10, at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The main event pits light heavyweight champ and LeBron-level phenom Jon Jones against former champ and karate star Lyoto Machida.

As usual, though, there are nuggets of intrigue across the card, if you know what to look for.

Can Nik Lentz get back on the horse? Can undefeated lightweight John Makdessi continue his ascendance? Will Dennis Hallman spit in the eye of Dana White and all that is good in the world and wear Speedos for the second consecutive time?

Truly speaking, there's drama in every fight, because everyone has something to gain and something to lose. Nevertheless, some have more on the line than others.

Who has the most to lose in this one? My vote goes to welterweight Brian Ebersole.

Originally scheduled to face scorching-hot prospect Rory MacDonald on the main card, following an injury from MacDonald, Ebersole finds himself matched with a different Canadian in Claude Patrick, who was plucked from an undercard match with Rich Attonito.

MacDonald (12-1) would have been one of the biggest fights of Ebersole's career. A win—and maybe even a good showing—would have placed him solidly in the contender conversation at 170 pounds. Patrick only has three fights in the UFC, is not a top-30 welterweight in any major world ranking, and doesn't have one-tenth the name recognition of the countryman he replaces.

And yet, Patrick, 31, is 14-1 in his MMA career. He is a seriously good fighter. In his last engagement, he scored a solid decision win over UFC veteran Daniel Roberts. The jiu-jitsu brown belt has nine wins by submission in his career.

That grappling pedigree would seem useful against Ebersole, who loves to bang, but is a wrestler at heart. Maybe the ground games negate each other, and a standup war ensues. Ebersole might like that.

But Patrick has some Muay Thai skills, too, and could use the clinch to try and stifle Ebersole's unorthodox attack.

Patrick actually reminds me of another unsung fighter who makes a long-overdue UFC debut as a result of an injury fill-in. That fighter is one Brian Ebersole, who entered the Octagon for the first time last February.

That's part of what makes this such a delicate situation for Ebersole. A win will constitute nothing more than a meeting of expectations. (Odds-makers currently have him as the favorite, though not by a landslide.)

If he loses, it will be to the same relative no-name he was himself less than a year ago. Despite an impressive 2-0 UFC run over the past 10 months, Ebersole still isn't that far removed from cannon fodder status. A setback against Patrick could land him right back in the cannon.