Mitch Picks the Meineke Car Care Bowl: North Carolina vs. West Virginia

We're two days past Christmas and Bowl season is starting to hit full speed.

While The College Football Place still remains out of action as we make sure every angle of security is covered before we put everything back up again, the games keep coming. Everyone who subscribes to our free newsletter should have received it yesterday as we're doing our best to keep things normal. Here is a video I recorded this morning talking about where we stand as of right now.

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In any event, this is my second bowl game in my write-ups in conjunction with other Bleacher Report College Football Writers.

I've really enjoyed this so far and while I have spent the entire season picking games, it's fun to see a lot of the writers step outside of their element and do such in-depth analysis and prognosticating. I think they are finding out in a hurry it isn't as easy as just looking at a piece of paper and circling teams.

Let's see what we can come up with in this interesting game.

The Meineke Car Care Bowl   Bank of America Stadium   Charlotte, NC

North Carolina (8-4) Vs. West Virginia (8-4)

Dec. 27, 2008, 1 PM EST    Line: West Virginia -1 1/2

Overview:

I think this is one of the more underrated games of the early bowl season. While both of these teams have been inconsistent, these are two teams who have proved that they can beat just about anyone on any given week. These are two rosters with plenty of players who are among the elite in college football today.

For West Virginia, they started the season with National Title aspirations. The Mountaineer hopes were quickly ended when they lost two of their first three games and it looked like the year would be a struggle; things looked even worse when star QB Pat White went down. WVU was able to rally and won seven of their last nine with the two losses coming by a combined seven points.

Expectations were moderate for the Tar heels this season and for much of the season they appeared to be way ahead of schedule before losing two of their last three games.

Underneath it all UNC looked and played like a young and inexperienced team as they not only lacked consistency at QB, they looked like they had been "figured out" defensively their last few games. Will the few weeks off help them regain that early season form?

Some Stats:

West Virginia:

Offensive Averages:

Points 24.0 (76th/6th)

Overall Yds 352.5 (66th/6th)

Passing Yds 135.3 (110th/7th)

Rushing Yds 217.2 (13th/1st)

Defensive Averages:

Points 15.9 (9th/1st)

Overall Yds 325.5 (34th/6th)

Passing Yds 190.7 (37th/3rd)

Rushing Yds 134.8 (46th/6th)

* In parenthesis are National and Conference Rank, respectively

Offensive Averages:

Points 27.5 (49th/3rd)

Overall Yds 317.3 (95th/8th)

Passing Yds 192.3 (83rd/7th)

Rushing Yds 125.1 (87th/8th)

Defensive Averages:

Points 20.3 (29th/6th)

Overall Yds 357.9 (61st/11th)

Passing Yds 217.2 (79th/11th)

Rushing Yds 140.8 (61st/7th)

* In parenthesis are National and Conference Rank, respectively

*From statsheet.com

While looking at purely numbers you almost have to wonder how these teams are a combined 16-8. The way they have gotten it done is that what they are extremely good at and they both have found ways to make plays when they need them. Conversely, both of these teams could have had better records if not for just a handful of plays.

Look for West Virginia to try and set the tone running the ball and look for UNC to try and get the ball to their athletic but young wide outs. While West Virginia allows yards, getting it into the end zone is no easy task.

The Trends:

ATS Trends

West Virginia

Mountaineers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a S.U. win. Mountaineers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 vs. ACC. Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in December. Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

North Carolina

Tar Heels are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. Tar Heels are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog. Tar Heels are 5-2 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. Tar Heels are 11-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Tar Heels are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Tar Heels are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. Big East. Tar Heels are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.

The Picks:

While I think this will be a very good game, West Virginia is a little better as they have more mature players with big game experience. WVU has really good success in the post season including last year's waxing of Oklahoma. I think Pat White is underestimated as a thrower of the football and he proves some of his critics wrong as he goes out a winner.

Bleacher Writer Picks:

North Carolina: Trey Bradley, Brian Scott, and David Wunderlich.

West Virginia: Michael Cline, Lisa Horne, Justin Goar, and GeorgiaDawg.

MITCH'S PICK: WEST VIRGINIA - 1 1/2

While Mitch's site, The College Football Place, is down for a few days, it should be back up shortly so keep checking back