BCS Championship: Why Alabama Was the Right Choice by Breakdown

The votes are in, the scores have been tallied and the computers have crunched their numbers.  Alabama has finished at No. 2 and will play for the BCS National Championship.  

They finished in front of Oklahoma State by a slim margin, and already the calls of unfairness can be heard across the FBS landscape. Oklahoma State won its conference. Oklahoma State played tougher competition. Oklahoma State got the shaft.

The only issue with those arguments is: Oklahoma State isn't the No. 2 team because it isn't as good as Alabama.

Before the cries come in about bias and conspiracy theories, this writer does not think a team not No. 1 in its conference should be able to play to become the No. 1 team in the nation.  It just doesn't feel right. Feelings, however, should have no place in which team is a better team in college football.  This is one of the reasons the BCS system is flawed.  Humans have a choice and their choices factor into choosing the two "best" teams.

The BCS takes the top two teams based on rank and places them in a one-game-winner-take-all matchup to decide who wins the BCS National Championship crown.  The BCS has no stipulation either of those teams has to be their conference champion.  The BCS doesn't care if those teams have played before.  The BCS has, as its only goal, placing No. 1 versus No. 2 in January.

Taking this into account, which team was more deserving: Alabama or Oklahoma State?  

Having reached the end of the regular season, let's review each team's body of work and see if it can be determined.

Each team has played fantastic seasons.  The regular-season records for each team is 11-1.  Looking back at each team's schedule, each has played four currently ranked opponents and eight currently unranked opponents.  They start out even.  

Strength of schedule

Alabama is 3-1 against ranked teams and 8-0 against unranked ones, while Oklahoma State is 4-0 against ranked schools and 7-1 against unranked foes.  Given this information, Alabama gets the slight advantage having beaten every unranked opponent and only losing to the No. 1 team.

The strength of each schedule is close.  

Oklahoma State played seven teams with a winning record with Alabama having played five.  Oklahoma State played three teams with a losing record and two that were bowl=eligible, and Alabama played four teams with losing record and three that were bowl-eligible.  Given this information, Oklahoma State gets the advantage playing more teams with a winning record.

Alabama has played four teams with nine wins or more.  Oklahoma State has played three teams with nine wins or more.  The win/loss record for Oklahoma State's opponents this year is 83-61.  The win/loss record for Alabama's opponents this year is 84-61.  You can't get much more even.

Quality of the opposition

Next, let's look at their opponents' stats.  Understanding there are 120 FBS teams, the average rank would be 60. 

Alabama has played five teams with an above-average rush defense, 10 teams with an above-average pass defense and eight teams with an above-average total defense. Oklahoma State has played seven teams with an above-average rush defense; one team with an above-average pass defense and one team with an above-average total defense.

Alabama has played tougher defenses.

Alabama has played five teams with an above-average rush offense, two teams with an above-average pass offense and two teams with an above-average total offense. Oklahoma State has played eight teams with an above-average rush offense, eight teams with an above-average pass offense and nine teams with an above-average total offense.

Oklahoma State has played tougher offenses.

So far, the teams are almost neck and neck even. It is going to come down to how well each team performed through the year.  How did Alabama's offense perform against these tough defenses?  How did Oklahoma State's defense perform against these tough offenses?

Their own merits

Oklahoma State is the No. 4 offense in the FBS.  Alabama comes in at a respectable No. 33.

Alabama is the No. 1 defense in the FBS.  Oklahoma State comes in at an abysmal No. 102.

Alabama outscored its opponents this year by 27 points.  Oklahoma State outscored its opponents by 23.5.

Alabama dominated on defense this year, coming in above every other FBS school, and offensively, against some of the toughest defenses in the nation, finished in the top third.  Conversely, Oklahoma State, while dominating on offense against much weaker defenses, didn't hold up as well against the tougher offenses, finishing lower defensively than any other ranked team except Baylor which finished 114th.  

Additionally, Alabama outperformed against every opponent, outscoring their competition every week by more than a field goal compared to Oklahoma State.

If you look at two conferences that rarely play each other, the argument about one being better than the other is relative.  The only way to make this a true comparison is to compare the stats.  Alabama and Oklahoma State are almost even in every way—number of ranked teams played, wins/loss records, opponents win/loss records, etc.  

When you drill into the teams and see how well they performed, you start to get a sense of which team was truly the better team consistently through the entire season.

Aside from all the anger, bias and hatred this year against the BCS, one thing cannot be argued.  In looking at two almost equal teams and their performance this year, Alabama is the better team on both sides of the football.

That's why, this year, the BCS got it right.