BCS Bowl Predictions: Scenarios That Will Prevent an LSU vs. Alabama Rematch
I'm going to run through five scenarios that could make an LSU-Alabama rematch very tough, from least likely to most likely.
Though none of these really seem likely, after 'Bama held Auburn's offense to zero points today (their defense scored once, and their special teams scored a TD as well), some are possible enough to be scary.
I am rooting for an all-SEC showdown, and while that is likely to happen, it's certainly not a lock. There is still football to be played, and Alabama isn't playing it.
No. 5: Virginia Tech Mangles Clemson, Voters Care (least Likely)
Again, this one has to have the voters looking for excuses to put 'Bama out of the title game.
Virginia Tech puts up 40-plus points while holding Clemson to zero. That may give them enough "oomph" to draw voters' eyes toward the ACC.
With Clemson having defeated Virginia Tech handily earlier in the season, I don't see a "revenge win" getting them into the title game.
Of course, the argument against 'Bama is that a revenge win shouldn't get you the crystal football...hmmm...
No. 4: Georgia Destroys LSU (a Little More Likely)
If Georgia destroys LSU by 21 points or more, then it gets really interesting. Georgia sits at No. 13 in the BCS polls this week, and that could change drastically next week if they were to take down LSU.
If Oklahoma takes down the higher-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys and Clemson takes down the higher-ranked Virginia Tech, then we'd have a real mess on our hands if Georgia upsets LSU.
I seriously doubt this could happen, but there is logic in the argument I wrote for Georgia. It's not exactly airtight by any stretch of the imagination, but there are reasons for every Georgia jump in the process.
In theory, it could even end up an Alabama-Georgia title game.
Even if it's completely impossible, it is fun to think about, especially if you're a Georgia fan.
No. 3: Voters Decide the Non-AQ Conferences Should Get Their Shot This Year
Case Keenum is the leader of the only team to be undefeated at this point in the season other than LSU. Again, the voters scare me, though it is extremely unlikely. Case Keenum is the "Case for the non-AQ" since Kellen Moore has a loss on his record.
History would have to be made for Houston to end up No. 2 after next week, but I'm not ready to say that the BCS wouldn't allow it. People in large numbers scare me, and the voters fit that "large number" qualification.
How badly would Houston have to beat Southern Mississippi for that to happen? Would an all-time-football-record 223-0 do it?
No. 2: Alabama's Entire Roster Goes Skiing over Break and Sprains 236 Ankles
I believe that this has a better chance of happening than anything on the previous slides. I think that our players are too smart for this to occur.
The only way this could happen, is if the entire roster formed a conga line with skis on, and took off down a black-diamond slope. (This would also have to occur close enough to January 9th that they didn't have time for the sprains to heal.)
The NCAA/BCS would probably pick a different team to go to the championship rather than endangering 118 players with sore ankles.
I would never wish injury on any person, therefore, I support a 'Bama-LSU rematch for the title game.
No. 1: Oklahoma State Beats Oklahoma
This is the scenario that scares me the most. All it takes is votes at this point, as the BCS computers still have Oklahoma State at the No. 2 position. (Update: OSU is behind 'Bama in the computer rankings .950-'Bama and .930-OSU, so they sit at No. 3 right now.)
It's not that I'm scared Oklahoma State is better than Alabama—I won't believe that unless Alabama plays them and loses.
What scares me is that, with all the conversation being batted around the Internet that a team that "doesn't even play in its conference championship doesn't deserve a shot at the title," I'm afraid the voters will agree.
If the voters already agree on that, then they are merely looking for an excuse to put Oklahoma State back at the No. 2 slot for good. Beating Oklahoma would give them that opportunity.
I've never been a fan of Oklahoma, but I will be in this year's Bedlam Game.