BCS Standings: Ranking the 10 Most Likely Endings to the BCS Madness

Dan Vasta@CI_StatsGuruSenior Writer IIINovember 20, 2011

BCS Standings: Ranking the 10 Most Likely Endings to the BCS Madness

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    Wow, what a weekend we have just witnessed with not one, not two, but three top five teams who fell flat on their faces.

    It all started Friday night with Oklahoma State losing to Iowa State, but then the Ducks fell to the Trojans of USC and Oklahoma was torched by Robert Griffin III and Baylor in Waco.

    What can we possibly make of this weekend other then the madness and chaos could still be upon us. To have four top 10 teams lose within 24 hours is ridiculous. Clemson lost to North Carolina State, though that did not put much of an impact on the BCS as it did to the previous three top five teams.

    Buckle up everybody, we are in for quite the photo finish between three SEC West (LSU, Alabama & Arkansas) teams that will decide who plays in the BCS National Championship.

    Fortunately, those who love upsets will see a few more on Thanksgiving weekend. I will try to make sense of the 10 biggest remaining and the impact/outcomes it will have on the BCS. 

    Let the madness carry on! 

Houston at Tulsa: Noon ET, FSN (11/25)

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    The Cougars must win out to have any chance at playing in a BCS Bowl. Don't forget that it was this time one season ago where the Broncos of Boise State lost on the road to Nevada.

    If Houston falls to Tulsa, not only would the Cougars fall short of a BCS Bowl, but they wouldn't even appear in the Conference USA Championship. If you thought the madness was at an all-time high this past weekend, you better gear up for Thanksgiving weekend.

    Drama's Pick: Tulsa by seven

Arkansas at LSU: 2:30 ET, CBS (11/25)

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    What an impact this game will have on the BCS and on the SEC West. The excitement will be out the door, unless of course you dislike the entire SEC.

    I say kick back, relax and enjoy this game since it very well could decide who plays in the BCS National Championship and the SEC Championship.

    The biggest question remains as to what the outcome will be and whether or not Arkansas could play in the SEC title game if they were to beat LSU. 

    For Arkansas to have any chance, they would likely need Alabama to lose to Auburn since they already lost to Alabama. In a tiebreaker scenario of three way ties in the SEC, it comes down to head-to-head meetings between the top two ranked teams.

    If Pig Sooey managed to upset the top ranked Bayou Bengals again (See 2007), they would need Alabama to lose to have chance at playing in the SEC Championship.

    Keep in mind, LSU is almost a lock to still play for all the marbles assuming they do not get blown out by Arkansas. 

    Drama's Pick: LSU by four

Penn State at Wisconsin: 3:30 ET ABC (11/26)

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    This does not have much of an impact on the BCS race since the winner would just reach the Big Ten Championship. 

    Still, to see Penn State's players put all distractions behind them and upset the Buckeyes on the road was nice to see. Now, they must be able to knock off Wisconsin on the road or else it will be the Badgers playing at Lucas Oil Stadium for a chance to play in Pasadena.

    Drama's Pick: Badgers by 10

Alabama at Auburn: 3:30 ET CBS (11/26)

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    Alabama does not need to flex its muscle against Auburn necessarily, but they need to focus and knock off their hated rivals in the 76h annual Iron Bowl.

    Trent Richardson has a chance to climb up in the Heisman rankings with a solid performance, but the Crimson Tide just need a win to secure a berth in the BCS National Championship since they are ranked second.

    Drama's Pick: Crimson Tide by 14

Notre Dame at Stanford: 8 ET ABC (11/26)

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    The Irish could ruin Andrew Luck's collegiate season finale at home as well as Stanford's BCS chances. They can still play in a BCS Bowl despite not winning the Pac-12. 

    Luck and his squad remain one of the top choices for an at-large bid in the BCS, but they first must be able to knock off a feisty Notre Dame team. Both teams are nicked up quite a bit, but Stanford's defense looked putrid against Cal.

    Andrew Luck needs his receivers to make some plays because they couldn't catch a cold Saturday night. The Irish, on the other hand, struggled mightily to beat Boston College at home. Call me crazy, but I foresee another major upset coming up.

    Drama's Pick: Irish by three

Pac-12 Championship: 8 ET FOX (12/2)

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    Expected to be Oregon vs. UCLA

    Even if the Bruins lose to USC, they should still play for the Pac-12 Championship, assuming Arizona State knocks off Cal at home. 

    If both UCLA and Arizona State lose, then it will be Utah against the Ducks. Of course, Oregon still has to knock off the Oregon State Beavers. Stranger things have happened, but I doubt the Ducks struggle to score 40 against Oregon State.

    So, look for the Ducks to play the Utes since Cal should knock off Arizona State in my eyes. Regardless of who plays the Ducks, it won't be close.  

    Drama's Pick: Ducks by 24

Conference USA Championship: Noon ET ESPN 2 (12/3)

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    Case Keenum and the Cougars have an opportunity to run the table and play in a BCS Bowl. They must, of course, knock off Tulsa (which I have them losing), but they would then have to play Southern Miss and defeat them. 

    I have the Golden Hurricane of Tulsa upsetting these Cougars, so Conference USA could have actually zero impact on the BCS if the Cougars are not playing in it.

    This Cougars offense has been fearless and the defense is starting to come into its own, but in a weekend that featured so many upsets, I just do not see Houston prevailing on the road against a solid Tulsa squad.

    Drama's Pick: Tulsa over Southern Miss by seven

Big Ten Championship: 8 ET FOX (12/3)

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    The Spartans would like to knock off Northwestern to keep the momentum going, but they are awaiting the winner of the Badgers-Nittany Lions to decide who they will face.

    Kirk Cousins has had his fair share of problems with a battered offensive line protecting him, but he has found BJ Cunningham for huge gains the past few weeks. 

    That said, I love the way the Badgers offense is rolling and I do not think Michigan State can score enough points or keep up offensively to pull this one off at Lucas Oil Stadium.

    The Badgers should be smelling roses!

    Drama's Pick: Badgers by four

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State: 8 ET ABC (12/3)

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    Who had both the Sooners and Cowboys losing this past weekend?

    Most were expecting two blowouts, but college football gave us one amazing weekend. Well, unless your fans of either Oklahoma or Oklahoma State.

    The winner of this game will earn an automatic berth in the BCS and will likely be invited to the Fiesta Bowl. The loser will most likely be completely left out of the BCS. Oklahoma State may still be ranked in the top 10 if they were lose a second game, but they would still be left out based on their ranking.

    The Sooners and Bob Stoops have been there, done that and I would bank on their defense rising to the occasion against a less mobile quarterback in Brandon Weeden.

    This game can obviously go either way, but the Sooners secondary clearly has major issues. Oklahoma State has not exactly been lights out on defense either, so expect a ton of points in a game that will decide who plays in the Fiesta Bowl.

    Drama's Pick: Sooners by two

SEC Championship: 4 ET CBS (12/3)

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    Georgia is awaiting the SEC West winner which will be determined sometime next weekend. LSU can wrap up the division if they defeat Arkansas.

    I have that occurring despite the Razorbacks remaining as arguably the hottest team in the nation.

    Georgia can easily upset the Bayou Bengals in the Georgia Dome, but I feel that LSU is too balanced on defense to let Georgia control the game. It will not be easy and in fact the game should come down to the wire. 

    However, I still look for LSU to find a way to win and earn their berth in the BCS National Championship.

    Drama's Pick: Tigers by three