Reading Between the Lines of GM Ruben Amaro's Recent Statements

Today, Philadelphia Daily News writer David Muprhy compiled a list of Ruben Amaro's quotes from his recent news conference. Many of these quotes are interesting and telling if you read between the lines.

Ranging from the lineup to Ryan Howard to soon-to-be free agents and possible roster additions, his news conference delved into a myriad of topics. The conclusions derived from the statements are at times expected, surprising, and disappointing. 

Championship Lineup

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“Abilitywise, there is no question in my mind this is a championship caliber lineup and championship caliber players. We have to go about it in a different way. I have talked to Greg Gross and talked to Charlie. We have to have a different mindset or different approach than we did in ‘08 or 2010. We don’t have nearly as much power, have to be better with two strikes, better situational at-bats. Those are frankly things we have to change.”

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I believe his assessment is correct that the lineup is still championship caliber, assuming there's no major changes that make it worse such as starting Michael Martinez or Wilson Valdez everyday. The lineup certainly is a notch below the top offenses in the National League but is still good enough to win over 90 games. And in the playoffs, anything can happen. There's certainly been worse lineups that have won the World Series. 

What strikes me as odd is why would Ruben Amaro exclude 2009 from that mention? Maybe he meant to include it, or maybe there's something about 2008 and 2010 that was different from 2009 in his perspective. 

The ironic thing, compared to league average, 2009 was actually a better offensive team than 2008 and 2010. Still, looking into the team batting ratios from 2008 to 2010, nothing stands out from 2009. So it simply could just have been a mistake or perhaps Amaro is seeing something that isn't there. 

If I were taking a guess, I'd say the different approach consists of attempting to hit more groundballs. It's obvious power throughout the lineup is declining. It's very possible the Phillies will not have a 30 home run-hitter next year. What you don't want is guys who cannot clear the fences consistently to just hit flies all day. 

On the flipside, as they get older, their speed evaporates too. If they do decide to hit more grounders, I do not think they'll be getting too many infield singles. 

Providing more evidence on changing the batted ball profile a bit revolves his comments about home runs. 

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“We’re very much on the same page. Charlie is about getting a good ball to hit and capitalizing on it. He’s about grinding out hits. Charlie likes the home run. We all do. I do too. He’s come to the realization that its not just about the home run. A lot of different pieces of the puzzle to scoring runs. It’s not just about the home run. We just don’t have same offensive team that we had in 2008. We have to realize that and work with it … We should have more .300 hitters. These guys have the ability to do it, it’s whether they are committed to doing it or not.”

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Furthermore...

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"If the guys playing on our club don’t make adjustments we’re going to have some trouble … I am challenging Charlie and GG to help facilitate that … Charlie is in agreement that we have to change the way we approach some things. If we can do that and are committed to it then we can be successful.”

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I believe Amaro realizes a bit that this team doesn't have that same power. Hitting more ground balls will naturally raise a player's average, however you do not want to hit .300 just for the sake of hitting .300. When it comes at the expense of less homers, doubles, and triples, it's not necessarily a good thing.

Two small examples include the New York Mets and Toronto Blue Jays this year. The Mets were second in the National League in team average, but only sixth in runs scored. Conversely, the Blue Jays had the 11th worst average in the Major League but scored the sixth most runs. 

Ryan Howard

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“At least 4 months. After that, [I] would not even be able to tell you until after he has the surgery. [We] can discuss it with the doctors and go from there.”

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It's quite apparent Amaro actually doesn't seem too concerned about Howard's injury. I think Amaro is thinking he may only miss April and be ready to go come May. He also doesn't think it'll have any effect on offseason plans. 

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“I don’t think it will, unless they tell us he is going to be out for a year, and I don’t think that is going to happen.

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Replacement for Ryan Howard

Many thought the Phillies would simply move Mayberry to first and start Domonic Brown in left for the time being. This doesn't appear to be the most likely scenario (more on that later). By the sounds of it, there's a better chance of Gload returning to occupy first than that plan occurring

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“We’re not sure. Gload is having surgery for hip labrum. If Mayberry is a guy that ends up having to play first base, we’ll be looking at somebody for left field. I’m hoping we won’t have to go that route, hoping Ryan Howard will be in that No. 4 hole in April.”

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Resigning Gload is counteractive to getting younger. In addition, it'll also be more expensive. I'd rather stick the younger, cheaper Phillies minor league Matt Rizzotti to play first for a month. I do not think he'd do any worse than Gload offensively, and both aren't good defenders at this point in their respective careers. 

If Gload can't go, the backup plan does sound like moving Mayberry to first and signing a left fielder. The fact he uses "looking at somebody" doesn't scream faith in Ben Francisco to start for a month. 

Who Plays Left and Getting Younger

When everyone is healthy, it's obvious Amaro is planning on starting Mayberry in left. 

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“It’s an open competition. If we were going to start the season, Ibanez is a free agent, we have a pretty darn good in-house candidate in John Mayberry … We certainly haven’t made a decision.”

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However, I am a tad worried why he'd mention Ibanez. I certainly hope he isn't considering resigning him to even a one year deal. I believed it all season and I still do, Francisco and Brown are both better options right now than Ibanez, who cannot field and cannot get on base. Obviously the counting statistics do not show it, but the rate statistics and pure tools do. 

Even though Amaro may give lip service that it's an open competition, it most certainly isn't. Not when one of the top options at that position, Domonic Brown, is doomed for another year in the minors. 

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“He’s got some work to do in left field. He’s down in Instructional League. He’s got some things to work on his hitting … For me, I‘d keep him in Triple A and let him get 500 or 600 at-bats there.”

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Don't count on another prospect, Freddy Galvis, on making this team younger either. If Rollins departs, Amaro isn't comfortable using him in a full-time roll. 

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"If he’s not with us, we will make the proper adjustments to replace him. Not sure whether that will be internal or going outside the organization. Some in the organization think Freddy Galvis is ready to be a shortstop in the major leagues every day; there are some who don’t."

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That last sentence doesn't exude confidence in him. I believe if Amaro was in the former group, he would have worded the statement differently, showing more confidence in Galvis. I certainly hope this doesn't mean resigning Valdez or plugging in Martinez. They've proven incapable of being everyday starting players. They are not as good defensively as Rollins and are much worse offensively. Don't forget Valdez is even older than Rollins.  

Already relegating your former top prospect to another year in the minors before ever seeing what he may do in the spring, considering resigning Gload or Ibanez, and showing little confidence on giving Galvis a shot tells me Amaro is not serious about getting younger. 

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"We do have to try to get young. We did it with our staff and have to do it with our position players. It’s a young game, played by young players and hopefully we can get younger.”

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This doesn't sound assuring either. Keep in mind, he didn't proactively do it with his staff. Rather, it was the result of injuries that forced him to bring up guys like Worley and Stutes. His stance on getting younger appears more of the, "It would be nice to, but I'm not really trying to. If it happens, it happens," sentiment. 

Charlie Manuel

Do not expect Charlie Manuel to be gone. By the sounds of it, with the discussions he's had with Manuel, there is no chance he is gone. 

Placido Polanco

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"Right now our biggest concern about Polly is to get him healthy … I’m not sure he was clearly 100 percent healthy during the end of the year. Age is an issue. We have to make sure to give him down time. I think he will play better if he’s not playing every single game. We have to give him some support as far as playing third base is concerned. Polly is the kind of guy that we’re trying to strive to have more readily at our disposal. Those are the kinds of at-bats. He works the count, he understands the importance of making contract with two strikes. Those are the things we’re looking to improve [overall]. He epitomizes that. He was not swinging the bat we think that he can and we think that he will.”

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This is a total vote of confidence. Amaro is confident when Polanco is healthy, he'll be in the same form we've seen the past two years and that his injuries certainly hurt his season numbers. Along with the previous statements about changing the way hitters approach their at-bats and wanting .300 hitters, Polanco is the type of player he wants others to model themselves after. 

I agree with Amaro in regards to keeping Polanco as our everyday third baseman. While he certainly doesn't have the power as other third basemen, he is arguably the best in the league defending the position, especially when healthy.