All year long, with the exception of one ugly game, the Florida Gators have arguably been college football's best team, in my opinion. Yet that one loss (a one-point loss to Mississippi) has left them with the unenviable task of having to beat vaunted #1 ranked Alabama to even sniff the BCS championship game.
But wait - now that the game is nearing, and people are seeing how well Florida is playing and recognizing that they have a legitimate chance to beat the Tide, some are suggesting that even if Florida wins they might not make the championship game.
Crazy computer say what?
Let's get back to that in a minute. At least one half of the BCS game is relatively clear, though there is controversy there as well. Oklahoma will represent the Big 12 South in the conference championship game against Missouri on Saturday, giving the Sooners a chance to play their way into the BCS National Championship Game with a victory.
However, the cumulative total of the human element of the BCS formula had Texas ranked ahead of Oklahoma by the slimmest of margins. It was the computers that ultimately boosted the Sooners into the Big 12 championship game, and into the national championship game if they can beat the Tigers, as well.
No matter which side you're on in the Texas-OU debate, the bigger issue is how the polls can be manipulated from week to week when coaches are operating on an agenda.
Some coaches changed around their rankings to try and beat the system and it's a shame they don't publicize each coach's results. If they did, I bet some of those coaches wouldn't have tried to do what they did.
Which brings us back to the Florida situation.
Thanks in part to SEC opponents Georgia, South Carolina and Vanderbilt all losing nonconference games Saturday, No. 4 Florida lost some schedule strength in the BCS computers and still trails the No. 3 position in the BCS standings by a decent margin.
That raises the question: Is it still certain that Florida reaches the BCS National Championship Game by simply beating No. 1 Alabama on Saturday?
It should. If Oklahoma goes on to win the Big 12 championship, chances are good that some (if not most) of this week's Longhorns supporters will move the conference champion back ahead of UT on next week's ballots.
But with BCS poll manipulation going around, who knows for sure?
If Florida wins the SEC and somehow doesn't climb higher than second in one of the polls, there's a chance Oklahoma and Texas could have a rematch for the BCS title.
And that would be wrong.
Here's hoping that if the Gators win, the polls get things right. If not, they'll be some hungry gators looking to bite off a few heads come to think of it.
35 comments Last one added 7 months ago — Leave a Comment
Tristan Clement 7 months ago
it's a conspiracy... they're out to get us...
on another note, how would people have felt if instead of a bcs ranking tiebreaker in the big 12 south, it came down to head-to-head... wait for it... of the two top bcs ranked teams in the conference. tech was basically out of the picture anyways, so would this have made more people (oklahoma fans aren't people) happy? don't call me a disgruntled ut fan, i'm from florida, and i'm a gator. i'm actually happy with the outcome of the bcs, as uf gets to beat up on a good team in the nc game (not that texas isn't a good team... gah i should just shut up)
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Bob Warja 7 months ago
Thanks Tristan...it's something that Oliver Stone would appreciate.
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James Colt 7 months ago
This is a good article. I've been posting comments about the Florida situation on people's Florida articles for weeks telling them to not get too excited about UF's chances just yet because if Georgia and LSU were to do what they did this weekend that would kill Florida in the computers. If Alabama had lost this past weekend that would have really hurt Florida big time.
I have to wonder if Big XII coaches might put Texas ahead of Florida sort of as a way to try to get the OU-UT rematch to settle the Big XII South. It would be wrong, but not out of the realm of possibility. Same for the Harris Poll voters.
Also Florida isn't just behind Texas and OU and Alabama in the computers (OU and Texas are actually shockingly ahead of Alabama in the computers), but they are behind Texas Tech and Utah. That is really killing them because both Utah and Texas Tech have better wins and played a tougher schedule to date than UF. Tech will still end up with the better win, according to the computers, even if Florida beats Alabama which has to lead me to believe that Florida will do no better than 4th in the next computer rankings which may make it tough for them to jump Texas. As much as you can make an argument for Florida to be in the championship, you really can't make an argument for Texas to not be in the championship, which is true and unfortunate for a number of teams this year.
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Bob Warja 7 months ago
If they would publish the names of the coaches and how they voted each week, there would be more accountability. Thanks for the comments.
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kris topher 7 months ago
Yah, i've been going NUTS about this for a while, and after looking at the computer rankings it looks like its HUMANS Vs. MACHINES
The Humans have to put Florida @ 1, or 2 and Texas behindthem by oneor more spots.
Personally, I think Florida has the worst loss out of any of the big teams. People give Texas shit for having a softer schedule than OU, but Florida's is a cake walk.
I'll take Texas' Loss, OU Loss', USC Loss', even PENN STATES' loss rather than Florida's loss.
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James Colt 7 months ago
You are right about the losses, Florida lost at home to a team with a quarterback that's not even good enough to start at Texas. What would they against the actual starting qb at Texas? That's really just a joke before people get all huffy, but seriously Florida has the easiest schedule and the worst loss so do they really DESERVE to make it to the national championship?
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kris topher 7 months ago
Well, they do have the great white hope. The Media tends to like Great White Hopes.
Florida plays in a conference that is massively overrated this year.
Florida has a pretty boy qb.
Florida has played a wewak out of conference schedule.
There is no reason to like Florida, other than the fact that they ARE Florida.
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Bob Warja 7 months ago
OK Kris but it was only a one-point loss. And they have dominated most of the season, you have to give them that much, But thanks for your perspective.
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J Gator 7 months ago
I'm constantly apalled at the garbage people write on here (kris).
No reason to like Florida? Our out of conference schedule included 6-6 Hawaii (at least it's a familiar name), 7-5 Miami, and @ 8-4 Florida State.
How is that weak compared to Texas' schedule of Florida Atlantic, Rice, Arkansas (damn...), and @ UTEP?
Oklahoma is the only team in the national title discussion that can talk at all. They beat 10-2 Cincinatti, winless Washington, Chatanooga?, and an overrated Non BCS team in Texas Christian (who only beat one decent team in BYU, who is also questionable!)
The SEC was hyped up at the begining of the year, but everyone knows that those expectations have been unfulfilled, so it's difficult to call the SEC overrated at this point.
Florida, USC, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, and Penn State are the one loss-ers.
Ole Miss, Oregon State, and Iowa are all 8-4.
Oklahoma and Texas had respectable losses. Penn State and Florida lost by 1 point to under-the-radar teams, Texas Tech was completely annhailated, and USC had to stage a miraculous comeback to even make the game close.
There is absolutely no reason that Florida should be left out of the National Championship game if they can beat No.1 Alabama.
Likewise, Oklahoma should have a spot if they can beat a truely overrated 9-3, defenseless Missouri for the Big12 Championship.
That's it.
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Bob Warja 7 months ago
Thanks for the rebuttal J, and for sticking up for the Gators. Bottom line, if they beat #1 they should go.
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kris topher 7 months ago
Sorry, I over-generalized and didn't mean to.
Texas' schedule is tougher.
I think Florida is a GREAT team, and I think that the overall speed of their defense would probably give both Texas and OU trouble.
The Bowl games are the only games where coaching comes into it, and Meyer is the best coach out there.
I think Florida would beat both OU or TEX, at least 50 percent of the time -- all thinks equal.
Regardless of this, Florida shouldn't be in the title game. They just haven't played the games, to prove that they're the best team. If you look at them, sure they're the best team but you cant pick #1 and #2 based on assumptions.
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Michael Devivero 7 months ago
I mostly agree.
However, TCU is not overrated. They blew the Utah game with turnovers and penalties. They were leading almost the entire game. They also played terrible in the first quarter of the Oklahoma game, then went on to shut down the Oklahoma offense (which is no small feat).
If anything, they are underrated, because the teams they lost to are No. 2 and No. 6 in the BCS Standings.
Or you could go the other way and say Utah is overrated, but still, who should be ahead of TCU?
Don't worry about Florida getting left out of the national championship game. If they win, the computers will give them a boost. Maybe the computers will have Florida 3 or 4, but it will still be a boost. And almost all the voters will put Florida in the top 2. That will be enough.
Go Gators!
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kris topher 7 months ago
I like TCU and Utah, both are very very solid programs this year.
The whole point is that with a Florida win, their strength of schedule gets bumbped but so does Texas' as Oklahoma will pop up to 1.
Right now its sitting at about 2/100 difference, which is pretty big.
If you check one of the Computers, an OU win and FLA win, still has the computers putting texas a head of Florida.
All of this talk of Bama as the number 1 team in the country is sickening. Bama's just lucky the SEC is having an off year. They're the only team that has a GLARING weakness. No, i dont consider OU's defense a glaring weakness :P
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Vincent 7 months ago
I think i read a lot of this same article on espn.com. I could be mistaken though.
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Bob Warja 7 months ago
Vincent, I read the same article you're probably referring to but I put in a lot of my own thoughts and feelings and tried to re-word as much as possible. I use other articles to get my facts straight, I admit that, but I don't copy & paste verbatim, or if I do, I cite the article in question. If you feel I may have remembered too much of the article, I can go back and check, I certainly want to be known for integrity on this site. Thanks for keeping me honest Vincent.
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Lou Vozza 7 months ago
I'm a Gator fan and if we beat Alabama and don't get in, those are the breaks. We had our destiny in our own hands and it was settled on the field against Ole Miss.
Maybe that blocked extra point was payback for blocking that field goal against South Carolina two years ago.
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Bob Warja 7 months ago
Well, Lou, that's certainly a reasonable way to look at it. I get emotional about my teams, and I admit that, But if you step back and look at it, this makes sense. Thanks.
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Lou Vozza 7 months ago
I'm really into the college football and the Gators, but I think its bad sportsmanship when the left outs get whiny at the end of the year. There's only two spots and a whole bunch of teams are deserving. Sure it's tough to be left out by a narrow margin, but how easy is it it make to the final of a playoff? You need a lot luck to win a playoff too. In fact, half the time a top seed like Florida would end up getting upset by a low seed like Ball State anyway. Fla's loss to Ole Miss was the BCS equivalent of that. It's too bad more people don't understand that, because they get real obnoxious on these boards and just make fools out themselves as far as I'm concerned.
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Iceman 7 months ago
If the gators beat #1 Alabama they have to get in. no way texas and ou can have a rematch over florida.
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Bob Warja 7 months ago
According to what I read on espn.com, there is a way that they could beat Alabama and still miss out on the championship game. I'd have to go back to recall specifically what would be needed, but it has to do with what the coaches have been trying to do to circumvent the process all along. Believe me, I know it sounds crazy and is unlikely, but it's true or I wouldnt' have written the article.
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kris topher 7 months ago
Texas' lost was on the last play of the game
Penn States Loss was on the last play of the game
USC lost by one score (even though it was essentially two)
Its not Florida's fault the SEC isn't all that Great this year..
their key wins
#16 Georgia , #24 FSU
PSU Key Wins 25 Oregon State, 10 OSU, 21 MSU
USC 10 OSU, 19 Oregon
Texas #2 OU, 14 Oklahoma State, 20 Mizzou
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Even if Florida beats #1 Alabama, the same number one that only 1 of 6 Computers believes is actually number 1, then does their schedule really look better than Texas?
So Florida beats 'Bama.. Bama drops below USC..
So You've got
Texas beating NUMBER 1, Texas Beating Number 14, and Texas beating number...ehhh 22.
Florida beating Number 5, Florida Beating #16, and Number 24
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The Computers are going to put Texas ahead. If Georgia were to have beaten GT, and LSU, and South Carolina not shat the bed.. Florida would have a shot.
I'm an OSU fan and i'm indifferent towards both texas and florida (they've both broken my heart)
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Bob Warja 7 months ago
Thanks Kris, it will be interesting to see what happens. First and foremost, Florida has to win the game or none of this matters.
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Paul Perry 7 months ago
I'm a Longhorn Fan and I don't want an OU rematch, but I'll never get what I really want. A match with Florida. UT and Florida would be the two best teams. FL will PASTE Alabama even without Percy. Ala's SOS Ranking according to Colley's Bias free matrix is 82, FL is 31. OU will PASTE Missouri, but I think FL would beat down OU.
I don't think the pollsters are going to screw over FL if you guys beat Alabama. I just hope Mizzou can pull out a complete miracle against OU, and then I would hope everyone realizes that USC didn't play anyone except 10-2 OSU.
Would Texas beat Florida? I don't know, but it would be a fantastic game!!!! Matched athletes with matched speed, great coaching, SEC/BIG 12. I don't think FL/OU would be as good a game....
Oh by the way, TX SOS is 4, OU's is 13. Texas is 11-1 while facing opponents with a total combined record of 85-59. OU is 11-1 with opponents having TCR of 79-65 (Washington and Chattanooga really hurt them)
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kris topher 7 months ago
Some of the other matrices dont really judge the SOS on the combined record. Well, i guess the SOS is always combined record but others weight top 25 wins heavier..
I wrote a very copy and pastish post of all the polls here
http://www.topherkris.com/2008/12/oklahoma-vs-texas-the-future-of-fuck/
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Bob Warja 7 months ago
Thanks for the stats Paul. Yes, Texas-Florida would be a terrific game.
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Richard DeLancey 7 months ago
That Cub's curse thingy with the goat has melted your brain a bit, if Florida wins they're in...
Relax college football coaches aren't smart enough or organized enough to manipulate the system...
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Bob Warja 7 months ago
My brain certainly has been melted by my devotion to the Cubs, I will admit that Richard. It's like an incurable disease...d'oh!
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Crayton 7 months ago
If the Gators score number 1 in the human polls but the computers drag them below Texas then expect a split championship. Woo Hoo!
As a Gator fan, I would not mind it. I'd take it as legit. Although, I don't know how much that would hold after a year goes bye and the media drills in our heads that Texas/Oklahoma was the 2008 National Champion. SC fans, how have you taken it??
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Bob Warja 7 months ago
Thanls for clarifying that for us Crayton.
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Damon Wildman 7 months ago
Bama fan here! During a 3 week period starting September 20th thru October 4th the poor ole Arkansas Razerbacks had the unfortunate task of playing Alabama, Texas and Florida back to back to back. The scores for those 3 games were;
Bama 49 - Hogs 14 in Fayetteville , ARK (margin of victory - 35)
Texas 51 - Hogs 10 in Austin, TX (margin of victory - 41)
Florida 38 - Hogs 7 in Fayetteville, ARK (margin of victory - 31)
If you give Texas a 7 point advantage for playing them at home, which would seem fair to me then the differences between Bama, Texas and Florida are virtually nothing.
What does that mean? Apparently it means that Bama is way over rated, Texas is the best team in the Big 12 and Florida is the best team in the SEC. Forget the little fact that the only team between those three today that is undefeated at this point in time is Alabama.
I agree that Texas is better than Oklahoma, they proved that on the field. I agree that Florida is probably the hottest team playing right now in the country. I just don't understand why Bama is considered to not even by most to be a top 5 team.
Bama at least has the chance to prove themselves this Saturday against Florida. And the winner of that game should be given the chance to prove who the best is against Texas in the BCS championship game.
But you got to feel for poor ole Arkansas. Who knew at the time that they were playing the top 3 teams in the country back then. Thats one helluva a schedule if you ask me.
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Bob Warja 7 months ago
Hey Damon, good to hear from a 'Bama fan! Actually, the only teams I usually feel sorry for are the undefeated teams that never have a chnce to play in the championship game because of strength of schedule due to the conference/division they play in, like a Boise State.
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Damon Wildman 7 months ago
Hey Bob! Nobody is feeling sorry for Bama thats for sure. All Bama has to do is keep winning. Now Texas I think got screwed so I guess you got to feel for them a bit.The Utah's and Boise States of the world I am sure feel like they get no respect. The only hope for them though is probably a playoff which is slim and none any time soon. ROLL TIDE!!!
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Bob Warja 7 months ago
Good luck to you but I do think the Gators are going to beat you.
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JoeGator Gator 7 months ago
Computers, computers, computers... WHAT COMPUTERS??? Computers have no opinions.
Anderson, Billingsley, Colley , Massey, Sagarin, and Wolfe are just some unqualified dudes who type their best guesses (or biased agendas) on college football into Excel.
Please don't blame the absurd BCS mess on computers. The blame goes squarely on the shoulders of these guys who have NEVER played a single down of college football. It is absurd that Sagarin and his goon squad determined the Big-12 championship. It is even more absurd that these clowns could over-rule the Coaches and Harris poll in determining the National Championship teams.
Computers? Please. What a load of crap.
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Bob Warja 7 months ago
I've worked with computers my whole career so I recognize that a computer does nothing on its own, it has to be fed data by human beings. I use that terminology to distinguish between the coaches poll and the other part of the equation.
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