Mayweather vs. Ortiz: Sportsbooks Have Marquee Bout All Wrong

Joseph HealyCorrespondent ISeptember 16, 2011

LAS VEGAS, NV - SEPTEMBER 14:  (L-R)  Boxer Floyd Mayweather Jr., President of Golden Boy Promotions Oscar De La Hoya, and boxer Victor Ortiz pose during the final news conference for their bout at the MGM Grand Hotel/Casino September 14, 2011 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Mayweather will challenge Ortiz for the WBC welterweight title on September 17, 2011 in Las Vegas.  (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Fans and boxing media alike are giving 24-year-old Victor Ortiz little chance to take down living legend Floyd Mayweather Jr. in their bout Saturday night.

The sports books seem to agree with the conventional wisdom. The betting lines on the fight, according to Bodog, are Mayweather -625 and Ortiz +425.

The people that run sports books are in the business for a reason, but I find those odds too low for a fighter the caliber of Victor Ortiz.

Ortiz has a lot going for him in this bout. For starters, he has so little to lose. His WBC Welterweight Title is on the line, but when you are facing a fighter like Mayweather, the match is about so much more than belts.

If Ortiz loses the fight, it only went right according to plan. Most feel that Ortiz won't even be able to compete with Mayweather. If he shocks the world and beats Mayweather, it's the boxing upset of the decade, at the very least. The fighters that feel like they are fighting with house money are always the most dangerous.

The over/under on rounds according to Bodog is 11.5, which I find to be too low as well. I can't really see a scenario where this fight ends up being long and drawn out.

If it's true that Mayweather is just in a different class than Ortiz, he will dismantle him quickly. If Ortiz comes out victorious, it likely won't be because he went the distance with Mayweather. It will be because he landed a punch in the right place at the right time early on.

The sports books, like most others, aren't giving Ortiz much credit. That's a mistake. Ortiz is too good a fighter to write off before the fight even begins.