Game Preview
Last year the game was at Michigan State. For Penn State, the game decided whether they would be 3rd in the Big 10, or if they would be 4th or 5th in the Big 10. For Michigan State, the game decided whether or not they would be guaranteed a bowl, since they were coming in at 6-5.
For Michigan State, it was a miracle comeback. For Penn State, it was a 2nd half of horror. Michigan State jumped out to a 7-0 lead in the first, but then Penn State began to dominate, scoring 24 unanswered points.
Penn State was up 24-7 about midway through the third quarter, and then horrific events started happening to Penn State.
Michigan State scored 14 unanswered, and brought the game to within three. Penn State responded early in the fourth with a touchdown to make it 31-21. Michigan State would not quit, however.
Michigan State scored another 14 unanswered, and with four minutes left in the 4th quarter, the score was 31-35, favor Michigan State. Penn State then had a chance to win the game.
They drove down the field, but were stopped on a 4th down deep in Michigan State territory. The Penn State defense held, however, and Penn State got the ball back with under 30 seconds left in the game.
With only a few seconds left, Morelli dropped back to pass. No one was open, so he dumped it off to his check-down receiver, who was tackled in the open field, and the game ended.
The final score was: Michigan State 35, Penn State 31.
This year, the game means much more. Penn State is looking to go to the Rose Bowl and win the Big 10, and to possibly go to the National Championship if the teams in front of them lose. If Penn State wins, they clinch the Big 10 and get an automatic birth into the Rose Bowl.
Michigan State is also looking to go to the Rose Bowl. However, if they win, they aren't automatically in. They have to hope that Ohio State loses to Michigan because Ohio State holds the tiebreaker over Michigan State, and unless they lose Michigan State has no chance at making it to the Rose Bowl.
This game has huge implications, as it is a fight between No. 7 Penn State and No. 17 Michigan State. From 3:30 until about 7:00 on Saturday these teams will go through a hard fought battle, and from it all, we will determine which of these teams keeps their BCS hopes alive, or secures their BCS hopes.
Penn State will win if...
Daryll Clark steps it up.
Ever since the concussion, Clark has been playing awful. At the beginning of the season, he was phenomenal. He ran and threw for many TDs and had few turnovers.
However, after he suffered a concussion in the Ohio State game, he has not played well. He has had fewer touchdowns, his passes have been less accurate, and he has been turning it over more often.
If we are to beat Michigan State, we cannot have Clark turning the ball over and making mistakes. We need the old Clark back, the one who threw for a high completion percentage and the one who threw for many touchdown passes. We need the Clark who would scramble out of the pocket for a run/pass option, and we need the Clark who would bulldoze over defenders and rush for touchdowns.
If Clark turns it over and makes mistakes, Michigan State's good offense and good defense will take advantage. A team cannot make mistakes against another Top 25 team and still expect to win easily. Clark needs to step it up, and everyone needs to help him gain his confidence. Either he plays well, or we will have a really tough time with a good Michigan State team.
The receivers get open more and don't drop passes.
What happened to our star receivers? The last time I checked, the super senior trio of Derrick Williams, Deon Butler, and Jordan Norwood was the best receiving core in Penn State history, and one of the best in the Nation. Lately, they have not looked very good.
I'm not sure if its the receivers, Clark, or both, but this passing game really needs to step it up. In the Ohio State game, the receivers were rarely open. Give credit to the Ohio State secondary, but still, when you have three star receivers one of them has to get open.
Against Iowa, the receivers were only open sometimes. They also dropped passes. The always sure-handed Jordan Norwood dropped a pass, tight end Andrew Quarless dropped two, and Derrick Williams and Deon Butler also dropped a few passes.
Against Indiana, the receivers got open more often, but they still dropped the ball. I understand its starting to get cold and the ball becomes frozen and harder to catch, but you still have to catch it, especially when you're a star, senior receiver.
Derrick Williams and Deon Butler both had drops in the game vs. Indiana, but Jordan Norwood didn't have any, probably because he was so mad that he dropped passes against Iowa.
For most of the season, these receivers have been catching everything that has been coming to them. They have almost always been open, and they were racking up the yards, the catches, and the touchdowns.
I don't know what has happened in the last few games, but this passing offense has to get it together. As I mentioned earlier, Clark has to put his game together so that our passing and running game can get back to their states of greatness that they were in earlier in the season.
The receivers also have to play better, by getting open, making catches, breaking open field tackles, and scoring more touchdowns. They need to get back to the outstanding level that they were playing at earlier in the season.
If our passing offense doesn't get it together, then we're in for a rough time against Michigan State because they will slow our running game if our passing game falters.
We need our passing game, both the quarterback and the receivers, to play like they did earlier in the season so that we can spread the defense out and keep our offense more than one-dimensional. If we do this, we will win the game, and if we don't, it will be much harder to win the game.
Penn State will lose if...
Their offense can't get it going.
Penn State's offense has been struggling. In their last three games, they have scored 13, 23, and 34 points. Now, this may not seem bad to most teams, but when you're averaging over 40 points per game, this is considered really struggling.
The root of the problem is Daryll Clark and the receivers. I have gone over this already, so you basically know that Clark has been struggling and the receivers have not been playing well. Not only does this affect the passing game, but the whole offense as well.
When the passing game isn't going well, the run game has a harder time racking up yards. This is because the defenses start putting eight and nine men in the box, so our running backs really have nowhere to go.
However, our running backs are really good, and if you look up Royster's 19 yard touchdown run against Indiana, you will see why.
Basically, he ran up the middle, broke a few tackles, then a few guys got him and he spun, almost went down, but broke free of the defenders holding onto his body and his legs just before he hit the ground, and he accelerated and beat out the defender to the endzone.
Royster is the back who has a balance between power, speed, and agility. Our other running back, Stephfon Green, is more of a speed back. He runs it up the middle or to the outside, and once he breaks through the first line of defenders, he speeds through the secondary and gets a big gain or a touchdown.
Even though our running backs can run through eight or nine in the box sometimes, it is much harder than when they run through six or seven men in the box. When the passing game doesn't work, it makes us one-dimensional, and that's when defenses look to slow down our run.
If our passing game is struggling and the defense is slowing down our rushing attack, then we are going to struggle in that game. Therefore, Penn State needs to get its offense going well, keep a balance, and stay multi-dimensional or else they will have an extremely hard time winning this football game.
The defense can't stop Javon Ringer.
Duh. I know its obvious, but its true. No offense to Michigan State, as you have good receivers and a good quarterback, but Ringer is basically your whole offense. Your offense runs on Ringer, and Ringer is by far the best player on your team.
Penn State will have to play defense like they did against Wisconsin, Illinois, and Ohio State, which is to eliminate the run. Penn State has been very good at this all season, and the most yardage they have given up to a player was Iowa's Shonn Green, who rushed for just over 100 yards.
Other than that, they have held every player to under 100 yards rushing, and basically every team to under 100 yards rushing. Penn State only gives up about 80 rushing yards per game, which is impressive, and actually they are in the Top Five in the Nation in rush defense.
If Penn State is able to force Hoyer to pass, they will have a much easier time winning this game. If they can keep the ball out of Ringer's hands, make him have limited touches and limited yards, then we will win this game. If Penn State can slow down and/or stop Ringer, then we will probably win this game.
If Penn State is unable to contain Ringer, then they are in for some problems. If Ringer runs through, around, and all over them, then they will tire quickly. If Ringer racks up the yards and points and carries, then our defense will become demoralized. If all of this happens, then Penn State will probably lose the game.
The X Factor
Weather.
What I heard from a fellow B/R writer, and from the news, is that its supposed to snow in State College on Saturday. Saturday is the day of the game, in case you didn't know that. Now you may ask, "What effect does snow have on the game?" Well, I'll tell you what it does, and what it will do for this game if it comes.
Snow is a white substance that falls to the ground. When it sticks, it is sometimes hard to walk in, depending how deep it is. It can also be slippery. What does this mean for the players? Well...
1) Its going to be hard to run fast in the snow. This basically means that the receivers will have a hard time running their routes.
It will most likely mean that it will be a smash-mouth running contest, with the running backs plowing through the snow and defenders either falling or tackling the running back.
2) It will be slippery. This means that the running backs, quarterbacks, receivers, cornerbacks, and the rest of the offense and defense will slip and fall.
This will cause for plays that lose yardage due to the offense slipping, and plays that gain big yardage due to the defenders slipping and falling.
3) It basically negates the passing game. Well, just as it is hard to throw in the wind, it is hard to throw in the snow. The ball can become slippery, which means that it is hard to throw and hard to catch.
The quarterback has to concentrate on keeping his balance while throwing, especially if he is moving out of the pocket. The receivers have to make sure they don't fall, that they run the correct route, and that they catch the ball.
With the offensive players having to concentrate on so many things along with the elements, it makes it hard to have a successful passing game in the snow.
Prediction
Ok, here's the deal. I could write a long drawn out prediction that keeps you from seeing the score for another five minutes of reading, but I'm not going to. Here's what I think is going to happen.
I think that the snow won't come down to hard and it will be in spurts, so our full offense has a chance to run. However, I think that we will start slow again, which will hurt us.
It will either be 0-0 or 3-0 Michigan State somewhere in the first quarter. We will score and probably be up 14-3 at half, or something like that. We will slow down Javon Ringer, and hold him to about 80 yards. Hoyer will be forced to throw, but will throw relatively well, but not extremely well.
Michigan State will keep it close score wise until late 3rd, early 4th quarter, but the game will be dominated by Penn State on the field. After a slow start, our offense will get it going, but Michigan State has a good defense so we won't run and pass all over them.
We will keep Michigan State to a low score, and will be up 20-10 or something like that in the late 3rd or early 4th. We will pull away a little bit and basically run the clock out. Penn State won't have its best performance, and neither will Michigan State. They will both play hard and well, so they cannot both play their best, obviously.
Penn State will keep the chains moving with their offense, while their defense holds strong. Penn State is looking for revenge after blowing a huge lead in the second half of last year.
It will be a sellout crowd of over 110,000, and they will all be cheering and screaming to help PSU and disrupt PSU. Penn State will not lose at home, and they won't lose a Rose Bowl bid, as they have already lost too much by most likely losing the National Championship bid.
After this, I think we have guaranteed ourselves a trip to Pasadena!
Penn State 27, Michigan State 13
For a Spartan's view on this game, check out Joe Guarr's article by clicking here.
comments (17) write a comment »
write a new comment
about 1 month ago
It's going to be a battle! Can't wait until Saturday! Good luck, enjoy the game, and try to stay warm!!
from about 1 month ago
Thanks. I can't wait to get up there.
about 1 month ago
Good job Isaac. Enjoy the game up there. Should be a good one. I'm glad you have come to your senses and realized that PSU won't win every game by 30. HAHA.
As for who I will be cheering for...well it all comes down to this:
I'll be cheering for Penn State if Oregon State loses and USC keeps winning. That means Penn State will meet USC in the Rose Bowl and it will open up another BCS spot for Ohio State...if OSU beats Michigan.
I'll be cheering for MSU if Oregon State keeps winning and ends up being the PAC-10 Championship. That means OSU will get the Rose Bowl bid and play the Beavers.
Its not that I am scared of USC...I just don't want to see the Rose Bowl game be a rematch. That's no fun. Bowl games should matchups of two teams that haven't played each other. That's what makes them enjoyable. I'll see USC at OSU next year.
from about 1 month ago
Well, since PSU has been playing badly the past few weeks, I realized that hoping for a blowout just won't happen. As long as they win, I'm fine, and since they've been playing bad, I see this prediction as more realistic.
I don't want to kill the Beavers again, either. I would rather kill USC. lol.
from about 1 month ago
I'm going to predict close games more often. Whenever I predict a blowout its a close game, and whenever I predict a close game its a blowout. Go figure!
about 1 month ago
Nice wrapup Isaac. I'm looking forward to tomorrow games as much as I have any other game in the last 3-4 years (as an MSU fan).
If the weather is cold and clear, I'd say PSU holds the advantage 55-45. If the Spread HD gets a chance to click, PSU has a chance - but it looks like they've had quite the time getting it rolling.
If the weather turns nasty, the advantage goes to MSU 70-30. MSU has shown a history this season of winning the smashmouth, down-in-the-trenches, nasty football games and the credit goes to Mark Dantonio. Wisconsin, Iowa, and FAU were all those types of games and MSU came out on top of all three.
The closer the game gets, the more I feel like MSU has a good shot at winning. Ringer's carry numbers have been going down as Hoyer finds more and more quality recievers to throw to. With the emergence of Blair White as a trusted receiver, MSU's offense has looked much more comfortable, balanced and effective.
Can't wait for tomorrow!
from about 1 month ago
I think the advantage is with PSU either way, honestly. It will be a good game between two great teams, though. I can't wait for tomorrow! I hope that PSU's offense clicks, or else we may be in for some trouble. Let's Go State!
about 1 month ago
I really agree on Ringer controlling MSU's chances for victory. Our recievers have picked up some slack the last few weeks while Ringer has been sick, but Penn State's defense is too good for him to have an off day.
Not only is he our offense, but he's basically our best defense. He can keep the opposing offense off the field when he goes for his signature clock-killing drives late in the game.
I say 150 yards for Ringer is the magic number for the Spartans. If he is able to do that, we will have controlled the ball long enough to wear down PSU's D and cool off thier O. Anything below that and the Nittany Lions will be too much to handle.
from about 1 month ago
Thanks for your comment. I agree with you completely. But Penn State has held most running backs and most teams to under 100 yards rushing, and I expect them to do the same, and that's why I predicted that Michigan State would only score 13. I think that they will stop Ringer, and just control the game enough to beat another Top 25 team somewhat comfortably.
about 1 month ago
The line is 15 1/2 points which methinks is high.
PSU might be feeling fatigue from the big BCS letdown and they may struggled against the Spartans. The PSU offense has regressed the second half of the season and the defense lacks a player or players with the big game killer instinct which used to always be a PSU standard.
When Iowa was driving in the 4th PSU needed a Shane Collins, Jack Ham, Lavar Arrington, etc type of game changing turnover, big hit, or sack.. a defensive game clincher with the game on the line..and it didn't happen. And I think PSU's bubble is still burst....
That being said they should win but it will be close.
And PSU has to really hope someone beats the Beavers of Oregon State..who wants that rematch?
from about 1 month ago
Thanks for your input. I hope Penn State plays to win and comes out strong. I hope that they play with intensity. Also, I don't want that rematch. We have nothing to gain and everything to lose!
about 1 month ago
Great job Isaac my friend! I am looking forward to this one! Excellent analysis! I think the end is in sight for the coaching career of Joe Pa, and he will greatly be missed. The man is not only a CFB legend, but a class individual. He was one of my Dad's favorites - and mine.
from about 1 month ago
Thanks GG. Thanks for the pick as well. However, Joe Pa is so stubborn, and he won't leave until he dies, literally. In like 5-10 years he will be pulled off the field in a coffin, he just won't leave. I think PSU football is what's keeping him alive, and no one is going to force him out after what he has done for the program and the school.
about 1 month ago
Well done detailed preview. Don't tell Penn State this, but watching every MSU game this season, I noticed another X factor : our tight ends on play action passes, especially at the goal line. The line being over 14.5, if I was a betting man, I'd definitely take MSU and the points in bad weather. The weather should also neutralize the fans a bit as the older crowd will be hunkering down. State's defense has been playing crazy good as of late too, I'm seeing two picks in the mix.
This will be one to remember.
Here's the Spartan perspective : http://bleacherreport.com/articles/83559-penn-state-michigan-state-obama-to-dantonio-yes-we-can
( Join my new site at www.SpartanZone.com for MSU videos, photos, audio and message boards )
from about 1 month ago
Thanks for the input. I'll try and watch out for those play action passes at the game, and hopefully PSU can stop them. I hope our defense can stop Ringer as well.
about 1 month ago
Great breakdown. This game is going to be a good one. This is a must see game, as well as the Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech game, and I expect it to stay close into the 2nd half until Penn State's defense makes a few huge plays.
about 1 month ago
Great breakdown. This game is going to be a good one. This is a must see game, as well as the Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech game, and I expect it to stay close into the 2nd half until Penn State's defense makes a few huge plays.
write a new comment